COVID19_SEIR_model

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COVID19_SEIR_model

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This repository collects the applications of statistical methods analysing the coronavirus outbreak in Italy

COVID19_SEIR_model 최신버젼 다운로드

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# COVID19 14-days forecast
Predictions on COVID 19 epidemic using SEIR models
(analysis updated on 7 April 2020, 22.00)  
###
New analysis

*Rate of infection estimated on the basis of a Poisson distribution  
*duration of COVID19 infectous period extended to 18 days (previous 14 days)   
*a seasonal component is included in the Italian model (the weekend behaviours... count!) 
###

- in Italy  
[a SEIR analysis Italy](draft_analysis_Italy_new.md)
(html R-Markdown can be downloaded [here](draft_analysis_Italy_html.Rmd))

- in the Veneto Region (the same analysis, but focused on the Veneto Region)  
[a SEIR analysis Veneto Region](draft_analysis_Veneto_new.md)  
(html R-Markdown can be downloaded [here](draft_analysis_Veneto_html.Rmd))

A gentle (and informal) introduction to SEIR models ([Link to the Video](https://cdnapisec.kaltura.com/index.php/extwidget/preview/partner_id/2203921/uiconf_id/38339202/entry_id/0_h8tbt3k6/embed/dynamic)) in italian

# In addition... an another draft analysis

- [BYM model for Lombardy Region](BYM_model/INLA_def.md)
(HTML R-Markdown  [here](BYM_model/INLA_def_html.Rmd) and for [downloading](BYM_model/INLA_def_html.html?raw=true))

Can be easily adapted to all the NUTS-3 Italian Regions.

[My personal page](https://paolin83.github.io)

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