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pip install -r requirements.txt

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# Daily Papers
The project automatically fetches the latest papers from arXiv based on keywords.

The subheadings in the README file represent the search keywords.

Only the most recent articles for each keyword are retained, up to a maximum of 100 papers.

You can click the 'Watch' button to receive daily email notifications.

Last update: 2026-08-21

## Time Series
| **Title** | **Date** | **Abstract** | **Comment** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **[Lévy Attention: Single-Pass Predictive Uncertainty for Continuous-Time Attention](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.19171v1)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Deep models for irregularly-sampled time series answer queries at arbitrary continuous timestamps, yet report nothing about how far each answer should be trusted. We show the attention layer itself can close that gap: with the right stochastic formulation, the pass that makes each prediction also reports, in closed form and at no extra cost, how far it should be trusted. We introduce Lévy Attention, a cross-attention operator whose output is a stochastic integral against an inhomogeneous Poisson random measure: query-key compatibilities assemble an intensity over a continuous (time x channel) index space, the measure scatters atoms under it, and the output averages an interpolated value field at those atoms. In expectation it reduces to a mollified cosine-kernel attention, so it replaces a softmax layer and trains with exact gradients. What softmax discards, the Poisson construction preserves in closed form: the evidence $Λ_q$ (total compatibility mass) and the disagreement $\mathrm{tr}\,Σ_V(q)$ (value spread). An exact variance identity makes their combination $\hatσ(q)=\sqrt{\mathrm{tr}\,Σ_V(q)\,\varphi(Λ_q)}$ the root-mean-square deviation of the sampled operator, emitted by the deterministic pass with no trained head. Empirically, disagreement carries the signal, while the evidence factor swings from uninformative on dense data to strongly informative on sparse. On t-PatchGNN the operator swap costs at most 5.6% accuracy against a matched control and nothing on the sparsest dataset. The free disagreement signal improves on 20-pass MC dropout across matched five-seed suites, and $\hatσ$ scales a calibrated Gaussian whose zero-sample CRPS beats a fifty-draw sampler; a split-conformal wrapper reaches nominal coverage at every level, and one pass ranks 3,383 unseen patients by trust in 1.4 seconds.</details> | <details><summary>23 pa...</summary>23 pages, 2 figures. Under review at TMLR</details> |
| **[Prototype-based Self-Supervised Multimodal Learning for PPG and Accelerometry Signals](https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.09764v3)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Modeling multi-modal time-series data is critical for capturing system-level dynamics, particularly in biosignals where modalities such as ECG, PPG, EDA, and accelerometry provide complementary perspectives on interconnected physiological processes. While recent self-supervised learning (SSL) advances have improved unimodal representation learning, existing multi-modal approaches often rely on CLIP-style contrastive objectives that overfit to easily aligned features and misclassify valid cross-modal relationships as negatives, resulting in fragmented and non-generalizable embeddings. To overcome these limitations, we propose ProtoMM, a novel SSL framework that introduces a shared prototype dictionary to anchor heterogeneous modalities in a common embedding space. By clustering representations around shared prototypes rather than explicit negative sampling, our method captures complementary information across modalities and provides a coherent "common language" for physiological signals. In this work, we focus on developing a Pulse-Motion foundation model with ProtoMM and demonstrate that our approach outperforms contrastive-only and prior multimodal SSL methods, achieving the best performance among strong prior baselines while offering additional utility for analyzing and interpreting learned features.</details> | |
| **[Discretizing Continuous Time Series for Imputation with Masked Diffusion Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.19119v1)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Time series imputation is a crucial area for reliable time series analysis, yet it remains challenging due to the complex temporal dynamics and noise of real-world data. Existing approaches, however, exhibit two limitations: missing and observed values are embedded within the same representation space without explicit structural separation, and continuous diffusion-based methods are trained to predict added noise rather than the original signal. To address these, we propose the Masked Diffusion Time-series Imputation Model (MDTIM), which leverages the training paradigm of masked diffusion model for imputation tasks. The MASK token is structurally orthogonal to valid observations, and the model directly predicts the original values, naturally aligning both the representation and the learning objective with the imputation task. To bridge the gap between discrete masked diffusion and the continuous, ordinal nature of time series, we further introduce Stochastic Discretization, which maps continuous values to ordinal-aware tokens while preserving continuous dynamics. Our experiments on diverse benchmarks confirm that MDTIM achieves superior robustness and scalability, consistently outperforming state-of-the-art deterministic and generative baselines across various missing scenarios.</details> | <details><summary>Submi...</summary>Submitted to NeurIPS 2026</details> |
| **[Multi-Class Electrical and Mechanical Fault Classification Using Random Convolutional Kernels](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18716v1)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Diagnosing faults in rotating machinery is essential for ensuring the reliability of industrial processes. Random convolutional kernel-based Time Series Classification (TSC) methods, such as ROCKET and its variants, provide an attractive trade-off between predictive performance and computational efficiency. In this work, we evaluate SelF-Rocket for the multi-class diagnosis of both mechanical and electrical faults and introduce, as a new contribution, a multivariate extension of the original method. The proposed approach is compared with leading ROCKET-based methods on two public benchmark datasets, MaFaulDa (mechanical faults) and ITSC-UDG (stator inter-turn short circuits), under both univariate and multivariate settings. Experimental results show that SelF-Rocket achieves the best overall accuracy-latency trade-off among the evaluated methods, obtaining the highest classification performance on MaFaulDa while remaining highly competitive on the more challenging ITSC-UDG dataset.</details> | <details><summary>Inter...</summary>Interdisciplinary Conference on Electrics and Computer (INTCEC 2026)</details> |
| **[Structured Latent Space Modeling over Multi-Scale Temporal Patches for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.19404v2)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Existing patching and multi-scale methods advance multivariate time series forecasting but treat learned representations as transient byproducts of prediction, lacking explicit mechanisms that enforce structural consistency across temporal scales. We propose M2Patch, a CNN-based architecture that organizes channel-independent observations into a structured latent space via two complementary differentiable penalties. Multi-scale patching decomposes the input into overlapping temporal granularities, depthwise separable CNN blocks with progressively growing dilation extracts scale-specific features at linear complexity, and per-scale learned projections compress these features into a compact latent representation. An intra-scale smoothness penalty enforces temporal continuity between adjacent patches, while an inter-scale alignment penalty restores cross-granularity interaction through learnable cross-scale mappings, so that all scales encode mutually consistent representations of the underlying dynamics. Extensive experiments on ten real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that M2Patch significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Further analyses establish M2Patch as a structure-aware recognizer: it recovers channel functional groupings and remains robust under patch-level input corruption, confirming that the structured latent space captures the data's intrinsic dynamics.</details> | |
| **[An Empirical Benchmark of Deep Time-Series Models for Smart Meter Energy Forecasting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18675v1)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Accurate forecasting of energy consumption is important for the efficient operation of power systems, with direct implications for operational costs, energy management, and system maintenance. Due to the availability of extensive high-resolution consumption data from smart meters, data-driven methods have been used for short-term and long-term forecasting. However, their comparative performance on real-world smart meter data is still not well studied. In this paper, we present an empirical benchmark of nine modern deep learning models for time-series forecasting, including linear, MLP-based, convolutional, and Transformer architectures. We evaluate these models on two publicly available smart meter datasets. Our analysis focuses on three factors that strongly affect forecasting performance: the length of historical input, the prediction horizon, and the choice of model architecture. We show that extending the historical context improves accuracy, but only up to a saturation point, after which additional input provides limited benefit. In contrast, accuracy decreases as the prediction horizon increases. We also investigate the trade-off between prediction accuracy and computational complexity, and assess the statistical significance and practical magnitude of performance differences across models. Our results show that deep learning models consistently outperform classical baselines, while lightweight architectures achieve relatively similar performance at significantly lower computational cost. Additionally, architectural differences only become meaningful at longer forecasting horizons and on more heterogeneous datasets. Finally, a subgroup analysis across geodemographic and household categories shows that model choice has limited impact for most population segments.</details> | |
| **[Bayesian epidemic alignment for causal evaluation of seasonal infectious-disease interventions](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16537v2)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Seasonal infectious-disease interventions are commonly evaluated with interrupted time-series or pre--post designs that align epidemics by calendar week. When epidemic onset, speed or peak timing differs between seasons, such comparisons confound a shift in epidemic phase with a change in disease burden. We propose a Bayesian causal count model in which season-specific affine transformations map calendar time to a latent epidemic clock, and intervention effects are estimated on that clock rather than on the calendar. The alignment is a model component rather than a preprocessing step, so uncertainty about epidemic timing propagates into every causal contrast. The model uses a negative-binomial observation distribution, hierarchical area, season and area-season effects, a shrunk Fourier epidemic curve, and a continuous programme-intensity exposure. Posterior g-computation yields prevented cases, prevented fractions, peak attenuation and epidemic displacement, under both a controlled contrast and a dynamic contrast that propagates disease history within each arm. A two-tier simulation study evaluates bias, root mean squared error, interval coverage and parameter recovery under stable timing, epidemic-clock variation, intensity-dependent ascertainment and area-level confounding. We illustrate the framework using open Catalan primary-care surveillance and respiratory syncytial virus immunisation data, with explicit attention to the overlap in programme intensity that identifies the effect.</details> | |
| **[MotoSafety: Edge-AI with Learned Temporal Importance for Two-Wheeler Collision Risk Assessment Under Time Pressure](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17823v2)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Powered two-wheeler riders face critical safety challenges in low- and middle-income countries, yet limited studies exist on how cognitive stressors such as Time Pressure influence collision risk. We address this gap by introducing a comprehensive dataset consisting of over 129,000 labeled multivariate time-series samples, gathered across 153 simulator rides from 51 participants under No, Low, and High TP scenarios. Across each sequence, we capture 64 distinct attributes covering vehicle motion, rider control actions, spatial proximity, and rule compliance indicators. Using this dataset, we introduce MotoSafety, a new edge-AI framework built on the Learned Temporal Importance (LTI) concept. MotoSafety achieves 94.97% accuracy and 99.33% ROC AUC, outperforming ten baselines, including TimesNet and LLM4TS, and achieves 0.039 MSE and 0.094 MAE for forecasting (4.4x lower error than Time-LLM and iTransformer). With only 1.15M parameters and 0.135 ms latency, it is suitable for edge deployment on low-cost CPU hardware. Using ground truth TP as an inductive bias improves accuracy from 94.09% to 94.97%, while predicted TP achieves 94.82%. Using only 21 IMU+GPS features, it achieves 93.91% accuracy, indicating practical deployment. Beyond PTW safety, the architecture shows better transferability to human activity (97.66%) and clinical (99.65%) domains. This lightweight framework advances PTW collision risk assessment, supporting the Safe System Approach for Intelligent Transportation Systems.</details> | 40 pages |
| **[Change Point--Aware Evaluation and Re-Calibration of PPG-Based Blood Pressure Estimation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18639v1)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Non-invasive continuous blood pressure (BP) monitoring using photoplethysmography (PPG) is a promising alternative to cuff-based measurements. However, existing PPG-based BP estimation studies predominantly rely on aggregated performance metrics (e.g., mean absolute error) computed over entire evaluation intervals, which can obscure model failures during rapid BP fluctuations and limit clinical relevance. In this work, we propose a fluctuation-aware evaluation framework for PPG-based BP estimation based on time-series change point detection. Instead of heuristic BP thresholding (e.g., $Δ\mathrm{BP} > 10\mathrm{mmHg}$), we identify BP change points by capturing abrupt distributional shifts in BP trajectories and evaluate estimation performance specifically during these fluctuation periods. Our analysis shows that several state-of-the-art models exhibit substantial performance degradation around BP change points, and that periodic test-time calibration is insufficient to handle such dynamic BP variations. To address this limitation, we introduce a targeted re-calibration framework triggered by detected BP change points, improving robustness without modifying model architectures. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic evaluation of PPG-based BP estimation from a BP change point perspective, highlighting the importance of fluctuation-aware evaluation and calibration for real-world continuous BP monitoring.</details> | <details><summary>MLHC ...</summary>MLHC 2026. The first two authors contribute equally</details> |
| **[A Factor Graph Approach to Scalable Multi-Output Gaussian Process Regression](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11917v2)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Multi-output Gaussian process regression scales cubically in the number of observations times outputs, and dense kernel-matrix methods need bespoke handling whenever different outputs are observed at different inputs. We express multi-output Gaussian process regression as a Forney-style factor graph in which a nearest-neighbor chain orders a fixed candidate set of $C$ inputs into a one-dimensional sequence. Along this chain, latent Matérn processes evolve through linear-Gaussian transition factors, while the linear model of coregionalization mixes $L$ latent processes into $D$ outputs through a deterministic mixing factor and per-output scalar observation factors. Posterior computation reduces to exact Gaussian message passing on the chain at cost $\mathcal{O}(C(DL^2 + L^3))$ after chain construction, and missing observations omit their local factor without any covariance-matrix restructuring. The formulation therefore scales in the number of data samples and in the rate of missing observations, while remaining best suited to candidate sets in low input dimension. We compare the factor-graph formulation against an exact kernel-matrix baseline, a sparse-variational inducing-point baseline, and a nearest-neighbor baseline on a synthetic input-dimension sweep and on electricity time series forecasting. At low input dimension the factor-graph posterior tracks the exact kernel-matrix posterior closely, and the gap grows gradually as input dimension increases while staying competitive with both approximate baselines. On the electricity time series our factor-graph formulation matches all three baselines in forecast accuracy while scaling linearly in the number of data points, where the exact kernel-matrix method becomes infeasible and the inducing-point baseline remains substantially slower.</details> | <details><summary>20 pa...</summary>20 pages, 8 figures, 1 Table. International Conference on Probabilistic Graphical Models 2026</details> |
| **[A Regression-Based Framework for the ACF, PACF, Durbin-Levinson Recursion, and One-Step-Ahead Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06334v2)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) are foundational tools for identifying autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models, yet they are often introduced in ways that appear disconnected from the regression concepts students already know. This paper develops a unified, regression-based instructional framework for the ACF, PACF, Durbin--Levinson recursion, and one-step-ahead prediction for weakly stationary time series. We show that the ACF is the coefficient from a simple linear regression of a mean-zero stationary process on one of its lagged values, while the PACF is both the coefficient of the newest predictor in an expanding multiple regression and the corresponding partial correlation. Using partial regression, we derive the Durbin-Levinson updates for the newly added coefficient, the existing regression coefficients, and the prediction-error variance from familiar ordinary least-squares principles. Worked MA(1) and AR(1) examples show how the characteristic cutoff and tailing-off patterns of the ACF and PACF emerge naturally from this regression perspective. The same recursive regression coefficients also determine the optimal linear one-step-ahead predictor. The resulting framework provides a coherent instructional pathway from regression to model identification, recursive estimation, and prediction and suggests practical ways to connect introductory regression and time series courses.</details> | 20 pages and 1 table |
| **[Mechanistic Interpretability of Structure-Aware Numerical Reasoning in LLaMA 3.1 8B](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18419v1)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Recent work has shown that large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong numerical sequence modeling capabilities and show promise in time-series prediction. While LLMs display in-context learning capabilities, the mechanisms with which they accomplish time-series prediction remain unclear. Specifically, whether they truly understand the underlying structure, which at a minimum requires reasoning over first differences in the sequence of numbers. To study this, we investigate Llama 3.1-8B from a mechanistic interpretability point of view. Mechanistic interpretability is an emerging field concerned with the reverse engineering of the algorithms learned by neural networks such as LLMs. To assess Llamas' numerical sequence modeling capabilities and to facilitate our mechanistic interpretability analysis, we create a sequence modeling task that cannot be solved without picking up structural cues. Specifically, we sample n random numbers and repeat them with an offset. We find that Llama displays strong performance on our tasks suggesting that it can pick up on the underlying structure. To understand the mechanisms that allow it to do so, we perform probing experiments and activation patching based counterfactual analysis. Probing reveals that the model computes and stores first differences in its internal representations without explicit supervision, indicating that it tracks structural information about the sequence. Activation patching reveals that Llama retrieves the relevant first-difference with a mechanism similar to an induction circuit and subsequently adds it to the current value. Notably, our work represents one of the first studies to identify this form of concept induction in LLMs.</details> | |
| **[Causal Mediation Analysis for an Interrupted Time Series: Stabilized Mediator Weighting with an Application to a Vehicle Emissions Policy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18326v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Population-level policies are introduced at a fixed time and evaluated from a single series of aggregate outcomes, and the interrupted time series design estimates the total shift in an outcome after the intervention. When the policy is expected to act through a measurable pathway, the total effect is less informative than its decomposition into direct and indirect effects. We formulate causal mediation for a single interrupted time series and study stabilized mediator weighting as the estimator of the natural direct and indirect effects. Because the intervention is a deterministic function, the exposure weight equals one and the exposure contrast is identified through the segmented-regression level shift, so only the mediator pathway is weighted. We add a cumulative mediator weight that carries the lagged confounder history, incorporate a concurrent event as a second interruption, and replace variance formulas that treat the estimated weights as fixed with a block-residual bootstrap that keeps the deterministic exposure timing intact and resamples the mediator and outcome residuals in moving blocks. In a simulation calibrated to daily data, the unweighted product-of-coefficients estimator is biased under mediator-outcome confounding, with an indirect-effect bias near $0.19$ and coverage of $0.003$, whereas stabilized weighting reduces the bias to about $0.03$ and improves indirect-effect coverage from near zero to about $0.83$. Applied to the 2019 termination of Ontario's Drive Clean vehicle emissions testing program, the method estimates a direct reduction in ground-level ozone of $2.113$ parts per billion (95\% interval $-3.384$ to $-0.841$) that is robust across four Toronto regions, a positive but heterogeneous indirect effect through nitrogen dioxide, and a total effect near the boundary of significance; a pre-pandemic sensitivity analysis agrees with the primary results.</details> | <details><summary>22 Pa...</summary>22 Pages, 4 Figures, 8 Tables</details> |
| **[Revisiting WEASEL 2.0: Reproduction, Sensitivity, and an Adaptive Ensemble-Size Rule](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18021v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>WEASEL 2.0 is a dictionary-based time series classifier that combines dilated sliding windows with a randomised hyperparameter ensemble and a fixed-size dense feature representation. Two of its hyperparameter choices, the maximum ensemble size and the maximum window size, are specified by simple thresholding rules whose chosen thresholds are not empirically justified in the original paper. In this work we reproduce WEASEL 2.0 on 114 UCR datasets, achieving a mean accuracy of 0.865 and median of 0.928, closely matching the published values (Wilcoxon signed-rank, p = 0.655). We then test the sensitivity of four design choices: the downstream classifier, the absence of feature weighting, the maximum window-size rule, and the maximum ensemble-size rule. The first three are robust to perturbation. The fourth is over-provisioned for long-series datasets, motivating an adaptive rule that sets the maximum ensemble size from series length and number of classes. Evaluated on fixed-length datasets, the adaptive rule reduces peak fit memory by a median of 37 MB (mean 395 MB) and fit time by a median of 0.4 s (mean 4 s), with a median accuracy change of 0% (mean -0.11%). Memory and time savings concentrate on long-series datasets where the original rule allocates the largest ensemble size.</details> | <details><summary>24 pa...</summary>24 pages, 7 figures. Accepted at the 11th International Workshop on Advanced Analytics and Learning on Temporal Data (AALTD 2026), held at ECML/PKDD 2026, Naples, Italy</details> |
| **[EvoTS-Agent: A Self-Evolving LLM Agent for Financial Time Series Change Point Detection](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17933v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Financial time series exhibit non-stationary and heterogeneous statistical properties, making change-point detection challenging because no single unsupervised algorithm performs consistently across assets and market regimes. Conventional workflows consequently depend heavily on expert-driven model selection, feature design, and hyperparameter tuning, limiting their scalability and adaptability. We propose EvoTS-Agent, a validation-guided self-evolving LLM agent for autonomous financial time-series change-point detection. EvoTS-Agent first performs curated exploratory data analysis to characterize dataset properties and initialize candidate detection models. It then evolves executable experiment trajectories through three complementary operators: \textit{Revision} exploits the current best solution, \textit{Alternative Strategy} explores fundamentally different modeling directions when progress stagnates, and \textit{Recombination} synthesizes complementary evidence from high-performing trajectories. Validation feedback guides trajectory evolution throughout the search, enabling the agent to adapt its detection pipeline to the statistical characteristics of each dataset while preserving reliable optimization. Experiments across four benchmark datasets demonstrate that EvoTS-Agent consistently outperforms existing LLM-based agents while maintaining a 100\% execution success rate across all evaluated backbone LLMs.</details> | |
| **[On the Estimation of Chernoff Information](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17916v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Chernoff information is a fundamental divergence measure characterizing the optimal error exponent in Bayesian binary hypothesis testing, with applications in information fusion, time-series analysis, and statistical learning theory. However, closed-form expressions exist only for simple parametric families, and nonparametric estimation remains difficult because the quantity is defined as an optimization of the unnormalized Rényi divergence over its order. We reformulate this optimization via a derivative condition, whose zero locates the optimal mixture parameter, and estimate the derivative directly using a $k$-nearest-neighbor method. We prove the $L_2$-consistency of the derivative estimator under mild regularity conditions on the densities and their domain. Coupled with a bisection procedure that locates the optimal parameter up to arbitrary precision, this yields an estimator for Chernoff information.</details> | |
| **[TSQueryBench: LLM-as-a-Judge for Time Series Explanations](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02118v2)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Natural language explanations of time series data are increasingly produced by foundation models in high stakes domains, making factual correctness critical. Evaluating such explanations differs fundamentally from standard natural language generation: correctness requires verifying numerical claims against structured data rather than similarity to reference text. While LLM as a Judge has emerged as a scalable paradigm for text evaluation, its applicability to numerically grounded time series explanations remains unstudied. We introduce TSQueryBench, a controlled synthetic benchmark of 500 time series instances across 10 query types, each paired with correct, partially correct, and incorrect explanations. We evaluate six large language models across four tasks: explanation generation, relative ranking, independent scoring, and multi anomaly detection. Our central finding is a consistent generation evaluation asymmetry: models that fail to generate numerically correct explanations nonetheless reliably identify or score correct ones. These results show that rubric guided LLM evaluation is substantially more reliable than generation for time series reasoning, supporting LLM judges as scalable evaluators in numerically grounded settings. Code and data: https://github.com/Prxxthxm/TSQueryBench/</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at ICML FMSD</details> |
| **[Monitoring Pasture Restoration from Satellite Image Time Series: Caveats and Opportunities](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17704v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Monitoring nature restoration at scale is an important but difficult ecological problem. Deep learning methods to analyze satellite image time series (SITS) have been widely used for land surface monitoring. In semi-natural grasslands - the habitat type in focus in this work - restoration outcomes develop gradually, yet satellite observations are influenced by weather, acquisition conditions, and processing artefacts, making it difficult to distinguish genuine restoration signals from unrelated temporal variation. In this work, we examine - to the best of our knowledge, for the first time - whether restoration status can be detected directly from satellite image time series by formulating pasture restoration as a binary deep learning classification problem. We evaluate two common SITS deep learning architectures on different Sentinel-2 image combinations, across 1,397 restored Swedish pastures and find that explicitly modeling intra-year variability and per-pasture normalization increases separability, reaching 0.88 accuracy for the best model. We further investigate our results and perform a targeted bias analysis finding that reliable deployment requires temporally balanced labels and evaluation protocols that explicitly test for year-related confounding. We therefore frame our contribution not as a solved restoration-monitoring system, but as a realistic case study of what works, what fails, and what future studies should control for. Code and models are available at https://github.com/aleksispi/ml-nature-resto.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at the 3rd Workshop on Computer Vision for Ecology at ECCV 2026</details> |
| **[CryptDough: A Unified Analytics Engine for Secure Multiparty Computation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17529v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We present CryptDough, a unified analytics engine for secure multiparty computation (MPC). CryptDough enables multiple distrusting parties to jointly execute a data analysis pipeline on their private inputs and learn nothing beyond the result (e.g., aggregate statistics). Unlike existing MPC solutions that support a single threat model or workload type, CryptDough provides built-in support for cross-domain analytics (relational, time series, ML inference) under various threat models, all within the same system runtime. CryptDough contributes (i) a hierarchical system design that facilitates modularity and extensibility through progressive lowering of abstractions, and (ii) the concept of virtual vectors that enable users to write single-threaded code across all layers of the software stack, while pushing the complexity of communication, parallelization, and memory management down to the execution engine. We show that CryptDough generalizes the functionality of state-of-the-art MPC systems and remains competitive on the analytics they support, often outperforming them by more than $2\times$.</details> | |
| **[Continuous Evolution Pool: Taming Recurring Concept Drift in Online Time Series Forecasting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.14790v3)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Recurring concept drift is pervasive in real-world online time series, where the underlying data-generating process repeatedly alternates between a small set of regimes, most notably daily or seasonal cycles that dominate energy, traffic, and weather patterns, and is therefore a central obstacle to reliable long-horizon forecasting. This problem poses a dual challenge in online time series forecasting: mitigating catastrophic forgetting while operating under strict constraints that prevent storing or replaying historical raw samples. Existing approaches predominantly rely on parameter updates or experience replay, which inevitably suffer from knowledge overwriting or stale replay buffers. To address this, the Continuous Evolution Pool (CEP), a replay-free framework that maintains a dynamic pool of specialized forecasters, is proposed. Instead of storing raw samples, CEP utilizes lightweight statistical genes to decouple concept identification from forecasting. Specifically, it employs a retrieval mechanism to identify the nearest concept based on gene similarity, an evolution strategy to spawn new forecasters upon detecting distribution shifts, and an elimination policy to prune obsolete models under memory constraints. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CEP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, reducing forecasting error by up to 24% on datasets with pronounced recurring drift without accessing historical ground truth.</details> | |
| **[Deep Learning Based on Generative Adversarial and Convolutional Neural Networks for Financial Time Series Predictions](https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.08041v3)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>In the big data era, deep learning and intelligent data mining technique solutions have been applied by researchers in various areas. Forecast and analysis of stock market data have represented an essential role in today's economy, and a significant challenge to the specialist since the market's tendencies are immensely complex, chaotic and are developed within a highly dynamic environment. There are numerous researches from multiple areas intending to take on that challenge, and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are multiple models of Machine Learning algorithms been able to obtain competent outcomes doing that class of foresight. This paper proposes the implementation of a generative adversarial network (GAN), which is composed by a bi-directional Long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network(CNN) referred as Bi-LSTM-CNN to generate synthetic data that agree with existing real financial data so the features of stocks with positive or negative trends can be retained to predict future trends of a stock. The novelty of this proposed solution that distinct from previous solutions is that this paper introduced the concept of a hybrid system (Bi-LSTM-CNN) rather than a sole LSTM model. It was collected data from multiple stock markets such as TSX, SHCOMP and the S&P 500, proposing an adaptative-hybrid system for trends prediction on stock market prices, and carried a comprehensive evaluation on several commonly utilized machine learning prototypes, and it is concluded that the proposed solution approach outperforms preceding models. Additionally, during the research stage from preceding works, gaps were found between investors and researchers who dedicated to the technical domain.</details> | <details><summary>[N] p...</summary>[N] pages. v3 adds an author's errata note at the front (pp. 1-2); the body of the paper is unchanged from v2. Corrects overstated market coverage in the abstract, clarifies the training sample size, and fixes four misattributed references</details> |
| **[SPACE: Sample-cloud Predictive Adaptive Conformal Ellipsoids for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17333v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Modern probabilistic time-series forecasters often express uncertainty through forecast samples. While typically converted into nominal prediction regions using empirical quantiles, these model-implied sets lack formal coverage guarantees and frequently deviate from nominal targets under distribution shift. Existing multivariate conformal methods can calibrate these regions online, but they typically estimate geometry from historical residuals using fixed or accumulating look-back windows. This reliance on the past limits their ability to exploit the instantaneous dependence structure of current predictions and leaves them vulnerable to stale-regime contamination. To address this, we propose SPACE, a conformal wrapper for sample-generating multivariate forecasters. SPACE constructs ellipsoidal joint prediction regions by estimating time-local covariance geometry directly from the current forecast sample cloud, calibrating the region's radius via a dynamic backward window-selection scheme. Across diverse multivariate datasets, probabilistic forecasters, and conformal baselines, SPACE consistently brings realized joint and rolling coverage closer to the nominal target, achieving superior coverage-efficiency tradeoffs relative to competing wrappers.</details> | |
| **[TiMi: Empower Time Series Transformers with Multimodal Mixture of Experts](https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.21693v2)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Multimodal time series forecasting has garnered significant attention for its potential to provide more accurate predictions than traditional single-modality models by leveraging rich information inherent in other modalities. However, due to fundamental challenges in modality alignment, existing methods often struggle to effectively incorporate multimodal data into predictions, particularly textual information that has a causal influence on time series fluctuations, such as emergency reports and policy announcements. In this paper, we reflect on the role of textual information in numerical forecasting and propose Time series transformers with Multimodal Mixture-of-Experts, TiMi, to unleash the causal reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Concretely, TiMi utilizes LLMs to generate inferences on future developments, which serve as guidance for time series forecasting. To seamlessly integrate both exogenous factors and time series into predictions, we introduce a Multimodal Mixture-of-Experts (MMoE) module as a lightweight plug-in to empower Transformer-based time series models for multimodal forecasting, eliminating the need for explicit representation-level alignment. Experimentally, our proposed TiMi demonstrates consistent state-of-the-art performance on sixteen real-world multimodal forecasting benchmarks, outperforming advanced baselines while offering both strong adaptability and interpretability.</details> | |
| **[LiveHouse-TS: An Open-world Living Benchmark for Time Series Foundation Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17299v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as a highly promising paradigm for cross-domain zero-shot forecasting. However, existing evaluation protocols predominantly rely on static benchmarks with fixed historical test windows. While these benchmarks provide a valuable baseline snapshot, they evaluate an average performance on a fixed history, failing to capture how models behave in continuously evolving real-world environments characterized by seasonal variations, distribution shifts, and unexpected events. To bridge this gap, we introduce LiveHouse-TS, the first open-world living benchmark infrastructure for TSFMs. By evaluating models prequentially on real future data in open-world environments, LiveHouse-TS shifts time series benchmarking from snapshot accuracy to continuous temporal validity. Rather than acting as a one-off leaderboard, our infrastructure serves as a continuous time series infrastructure designed to explore vital, long-term scientific questions: Can model rankings be maintained over the long term? Which models remain genuinely robust under distribution shifts? Extensive streaming evaluations across 11 domains with 17 datasets demonstrate that static rankings undergo a dramatic reshuffling under a live protocol.</details> | |
| **[Beyond MSE: Rethinking the Evaluation Metric and Benchmarking for Irregular Time Series Forecasting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17293v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Existing research on irregular time-series forecasting has primarily focused on model design, while evaluation metrics remain insufficiently studied. Existing benchmarks typically use mean squared error (MSE) as the evaluation metric. We show that, in irregular forecasting, MSE is determined not only by the model prediction but also by the sample-specific timestamp sampling distributions, leading to a biased assessment of the models' continuous-time predictive performance. To address this issue, we propose the Continuous-time Squared Error (CSE), which employs importance weighting to eliminate the influence of the timestamp sampling distributions. We further theoretically prove that CSE's asymptotic estimation error with respect to continuous-time risk is no greater than that of MSE. Finally, we construct a systematic benchmark covering synthetic, semi-synthetic, and eight real-world datasets to validate the effectiveness of CSE and systematically evaluate models' continuous-time predictive performance. Experiments show that CSE can recover continuous-time risk more accurately than MSE, while relying solely on MSE may not fully reflect models' continuous-time predictive performance in real-world scenarios. Our code can be obtained at https://github.com/hnu-vis/ITS-Bench.</details> | |
| **[Rethinking Irregular Time Series Forecasting from the Perspective of Basis Functions](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17284v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Irregular time series forecasting is crucial in many domains, such as healthcare and meteorological observation. However, due to the inherent characteristics of irregular time series, including sparse observations and non-uniform sampling, accurately predicting future dynamics remains challenging. In light of these two characteristics, many existing methods aggregate irregular observations into fixed-dimensional estimated response coefficients through predefined basis functions and use these coefficients as sequence representations. Nevertheless, this modeling paradigm still suffers from two key limitations: (i) a potential non-vanishing asymptotic bias caused by ignoring the sampling density of timestamps; and (ii) the limited adaptability of predefined basis functions to diverse temporal patterns. In this study, we propose a Debiased Neural Basis-Function Network (DNBNet) to address these challenges. Its core is a debiased neural basis-function response mechanism, which corrects asymptotic bias through importance sampling while parameterizing basis functions with neural networks to adapt to diverse temporal patterns. In addition, considering the sparsity of irregular data, we design a novel multi-scale decomposition module based on average pooling, together with a mass-aware fusion mechanism, to obtain richer representations. Finally, a dual-branch decoder is employed for forecasting. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of DNBNet and its strong generalizability across diverse irregular time series scenarios. Our code can be obtained at https://github.com/hnu-vis/DNBNet.</details> | |
| **[AQuA: Recursively Self-Improving Quantitative Trading Research Agents](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12841v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We study recursive self-improvement at the level of quantitative-investment research: whether an autonomous system can use evidence from earlier experiments to improve the hypotheses and candidates proposed in later iterations. We present AQuA, which comprises two separate language-model-driven research systems: one for symbolic factor discovery and one for trainable model development. The two systems do not share agents, memories, candidate spaces, or research state. Instead, each independently closes its own research loop by retaining validated evidence and using it to guide subsequent proposals. In this bounded sense, both systems implement recursive self-improvement at the level of the research process. Each system also uses its own sealed sandbox, which fixes the data splits, feature and label definitions, and evaluator while allowing the model to act only through constrained factor expressions or configuration diffs. The factor system, a manager-mediated multi-agent pipeline, discovers and combines factors into a signal that reaches a combined information coefficient of about $0.190$ on a crypto universe. The model system, a config-driven loop over a hybrid time-series architecture, reaches a per-stock information coefficient of $+0.0843$ on US equities and converts it into a threshold long/short strategy with a held-out Sharpe of up to $+2.50$ at a two-leg cost. The strategy is positive in every year from 2021 to 2025.</details> | |
| **[A Weak Penalty Neural ODE for Learning Chaotic Dynamics from Noisy Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.06609v5)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The accurate forecasting of complex, high-dimensional dynamical systems from observational data is a fundamental task across numerous scientific and engineering disciplines. A significant challenge arises from noisy observations of deterministic dynamics, which severely degrade the performance of data-driven models. In chaotic dynamical systems, where small initial errors amplify exponentially, it is particularly difficult to develop a model from noisy data that achieves short-term accuracy while preserving long-term invariant properties. To overcome this, we consider the weak formulation as a complementary approach to the classical L2-loss function for training models of dynamical systems. We empirically verify that the weak formulation, with a proper choice of test function and integration domain, effectively filters noisy data. This insight explains why a weak form loss function is analogous to fitting a model to filtered data and provides a practical way to parameterize the weak form. Subsequently, we demonstrate how this approach overcomes the instability and inaccuracy of standard Neural ODE (NODE) in modeling chaotic systems. Through numerical examples, we show that our proposed training strategy, the Weak Penalty NODE, is computationally efficient, solver-agnostic, and yields accurate and robust forecasts across benchmark chaotic systems and a real-world climate dataset.</details> | |
| **[Crypto-Microeconomics: The Distribution of Bitcoin Wealth Among Diverse Economic Agents](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03646v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Bitcoin (BTC) wealth distribution is often analyzed with macro indicators such as aggregate addresses, wallet balances, prices, network activity, fees, and hashrate. This letter applies a Crypto-Microeconomic perspective to examine wealth concentration across five labeled economic-agent classes: Service, Abuse, Malware, Individuals, and Benign. Using descriptive statistics, inequality metrics, and longitudinal indicators, we show that Bitcoin wealth is highly concentrated across major classes. Service entities hold the largest share of observed BTC (75.15%), while Abuse controls a disproportionately large share relative to its entity count (24.26% of BTC vs. 3.53% of entities). Individuals, Abuse, and Service show near-maximal within-class inequality (e.g., Gini=0.9993 for Individuals), and time-series analysis indicates these patterns still exist. Overall, Bitcoin wealth among labeled economic agents remains structurally uneven and concentrated in a small subset of entities.</details> | |
| **[SCENARIODIFF: A Scenario-level Guidance Framework for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting--Extended Version](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17164v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Textual context such as news, reports, and logs can provide valuable signals for time series forecasting, especially when future dynamics are driven by external events that are not yet visible in historical values. Existing multimodal forecasting methods often either ask large language models (LLMs) to predict numerical values directly or fuse text and time series implicitly, making contextual influence difficult to interpret and control. We propose SCENARIODIFF, a hierarchical contextual reasoning framework for multimodal time series forecasting under noisy and weakly aligned documents. SCENARIODIFF organizes contextual information into three levels: a Historical Context Agent extracts stepwise evidence from raw documents, a Scenario Agent produces a qualitative scenario description for the forecast horizon, and an Anchor Guidance Agent generates sparse anchor points for event-relevant future regions. These structured signals condition a Multimodal Diffusion Transformer, while Anchor Blended Sampling locally refines generated trajectories without retraining. Experiments on the Time-MMD benchmark show that SCENARIODIFF is especially effective in event-driven domains, demonstrating the value of explicit hierarchical scenario guidance for multimodal time series forecasting. Our full implementation is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ScenarioDiff_ICDM-2C4C</details> | <details><summary>10 pa...</summary>10 pages. An extended version of "SCENARIODIFF: A Scenario-level Guidance Framework for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting" accepted at ICDM 2026</details> |
| **[CoMedBench: A Multi-Source Benchmark of Synthetic Medical Data Fidelity and Downstream Utility](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12805v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Access to clinical data is essential for developing reliable healthcare machine learning systems, but direct use of electronic health records is constrained by privacy regulation, institutional review, data-use agreements, and the risk of re-identification. Synthetic data promises a practical alternative: it can preserve useful statistical and clinical structure while reducing exposure of sensitive patient records. Prior studies often evaluate a single generator, one dataset, or a narrow downstream task, making it difficult to know when synthetic data can support model development and when it fails to preserve task-critical signal. We introduce CoMedBench, a reproducible benchmark that evaluates a family of generators under a common clinical-validity framework and one shared training and evaluation engine, spanning static tabular and temporal downstream tasks on established critical-care datasets. In total the benchmark spans 37 dataset-task pairs across two modalities consists of 20 static tabular and 17 temporal ICU time-series-drawn from seven public data sources: three intensive-care databases (MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV, and eICU) together with the UCI Machine Learning Repository, the CDC BRFSS diabetes cohort (2015), NHANES (1999-2014), and the pycox survival datasets (GBSG and METABRIC). The benchmark evaluates both statistical fidelity and task utility by comparing models trained and tested across real and synthetic data. In these settings, synthetic training data preserves most of the downstream signal: on tabular tasks the reference generator CoMed-CTGAN retains a mean AUROC utility (the synthetic-to-real performance ratio) of 90.6%, rising to 97.3% for the strongest generator, CoMed-TVAE. Temporal ICU tasks are harder and more generator-sensitive: CoMed-CTGAN retains 81.6% (AUROC) and only 64.0% under the imbalance-sensitive AUPRC, whereas CoMed-TVAE still retains ~95% (AUROC).</details> | |
| **[Open datasets and machine learning for two-phase heat transfer: a review following a spatial-temporal taxonomy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.23037v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Two-phase heat transfer underpins boiling, condensation, immersion cooling, flow boiling, energy conversion, and electronics thermal management, but its coupled interfacial physics make data reuse and model comparison difficult. This narrative review synthesizes open datasets, machine-learning methods, and reusable software for two-phase heat-transfer research, with emphasis on boiling, multimodal sensing, and thermal-management datasets. We organize the review around a spatial-plus-temporal dimensionality taxonomy, denoted S+TD, that classifies data objects by the dimensionality of the measured, simulated, or derived fields, including 0+0D point values, 0+1D time series, 1+1D profiles, 2+0D images, 2+1D videos, 3+0D/3+1D fields, and mixed multimodal records. The taxonomy is used to connect dataset types to AI tasks such as tabular regression, acoustic sequence learning, image segmentation, video analysis, inverse heat-flux reconstruction, surrogate modeling, and multimodal fusion. The review also develops a roadmap for physics-aware open data, including metadata definitions, evidence and reuse-maturity labels, benchmark splits, decoders, baseline models, and community databanks. NED3 resources are discussed as one implementation case within a broader open-data ecosystem rather than as a complete solution. The main conclusion is that progress in two-phase AI now depends as much on findable, decodable, benchmarkable, and physically interpretable data infrastructure as on model architecture.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted manuscript replacing arXiv:2605.23037 (v1). Substantially expanded from the original preprint and published in Transport Phenomena 2026, 1(3), 20260081. https://doi.org/10.1515/tp-2026-0081</details> |
| **[Exploring Facial Biomarkers for Detecting Depression through Temporal Analysis of Action Units](https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13753v3)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Depression is characterized by persistent sadness and loss of interest, significantly impairing daily functioning and now a widespread mental disorder. Traditional diagnostic methods rely on subjective assessments, necessitating objective approaches for accurate diagnosis. Our study investigates the use of facial action units (AUs) and emotions as biomarkers for depression. We analyzed facial expressions from video data of participants classified with or without depression. Our methodology involved detailed feature extraction, mean intensity comparisons of key AUs, and the application of time series classification models. Furthermore, we employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and various clustering algorithms to explore the variability in emotional expression patterns. Results indicate significant differences in the intensities of AUs associated with sadness and happiness between the groups, highlighting the potential of facial analysis in depression assessment.</details> | Updated Authors |
| **[Time-Aware Validation of Machine Learning Fuel Consumption Models: Evidence from 1\,Hz Operational Data, CCGS \textit{Sir Wilfrid Laurier}](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16833v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Ship fuel consumption (SFC) prediction supports vessel operation optimisation, emissions estimation, and decision support systems (DSS) for sustainable maritime transportation. Numerous data-driven fuel models have been developed over the past two decades, but a critical and often overlooked limitation lies in their validation practices: most studies evaluate performance using random train--test splits, which, applied to high-frequency records, admit temporal leakage and yield optimistic results that do not reflect deployment conditions. This paper examines that gap using time-aware evaluation, specifically Time Series Cross-Validation (TSCV) and Blocked TSCV (BTSCV). Using the Canadian Coast Guard Ship (CCGS) \textit{Sir Wilfrid Laurier} as a case study, six regression models and a physics baseline are tuned under three time-aware schemes and three feature configurations, then evaluated on a common chronological hold-out set drawn from approximately 3.88 million steady-state 1\,Hz records.</details> | |
| **[Recursive Multiple Change Point Detection of Nonstationary Time Series: Instability Tests, Estimation and Confidence Intervals](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13352v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We develop bootstrap-assisted robust binary segmentation (BARBS), a recursive binary segmentation method for multiple change point detection under general nonstationary temporal dynamics. A novel Gaussian multiplier bootstrap for the CUSUM statistics is proposed, offering robustness to complex dependence structures. Through meticulous calibration of the critical values at each stage of the recursion, BARBS ensures control of the Type I error under the null hypothesis of no change points. When change points are present, BARBS identifies the correct number of changes with a prespecified probability, and the resulting change point location estimators attain the same uniform consistency rate as classical binary segmentation. Building on this, we introduce second-stage refined estimators that achieve the optimal individual localization rate, and establish their asymptotic distributions and nearly optimal uniform localization rates under both fixed and vanishing jump magnitudes. Extensive numerical experiments across various settings confirm the robustness and superior performance of BARBS relative to existing approaches. To illustrate the practical relevance of the proposed methodology, we analyze U.S. inflation data, yielding change points that align with several documented macroeconomic episodes.</details> | |
| **[TRACE-CASH: Trial-History-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning for Adaptive Configuration Exploration in Time-Series CASH](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16410v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Combined algorithm selection and hyperparameter optimization (CASH) searches a conditional space in which the selected model determines which hyperparameters are active. In time-series forecasting, temporal choices, chronological validation, and costly evaluations further complicate this search. Controlled comparisons of heterogeneous search methods under a shared time-series CASH (TS-CASH) evaluation protocol remain limited. Within this setting, we study TRACECASH, a task-local hybrid sequential optimizer combining grouped actor-critic candidate generation with fixed rules for model coverage, validation-guided exploitation, and exploration after stalled progress. A model actor proposes an initial forecasting model; three model-conditioned actors generate temporal, architectural, and training actions; and a modelspecific decoder constructs the configuration ultimately evaluated. We compare TRACE-CASH with six alternatives spanning random, Bayesian, evolutionary, multi-objective, and language-model-assisted search across 41 dataset-frequency task variants. TRACE-CASH has the lowest mean rank on both MASE and WQL. Descriptively, it also has the lowest window-averaged test-MASE rank in the predefined full and late windows. These results support the complete TRACECASH procedure as competitive among the evaluated methods.</details> | |
| **[FETERS: Few-Shot Early Time-Series Classification via Effective Ratio Selection](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16385v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Early time-series classification (ETSC) aims to make accurate predictions from partially observed time series as early as possible. Although various stopping mechanisms and feature learning strategies have been developed for ETSC, most existing methods assume access to sufficient labeled training data, which may be unrealistic in applications with limited annotation. Under limited supervision, learning an additional sample-level stopping module and extracting effective classification features can both become challenging. In this paper, we propose FETERS, a few-shot ETSC framework that selects a dataset-level stopping ratio through class-wise leave-one-out (LOO) evaluation on the support set and uses a penalty-based reward function to manage the accuracy-earliness trade-off, thereby avoiding the need to train an additional stopping module. FETERS further combines Rocket-based features with frozen Chronos representations for classification. Extensive experiments on 69 public datasets spanning 14 domains show that FETERS achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in the 5-shot setting, with the highest average harmonic mean (HM) and the best HM on 38 datasets, while outperforming the current SOTA method on 44 datasets. FETERS also remains competitive in the full-shot setting, demonstrating its effectiveness in managing the accuracy-earliness trade-off.</details> | |
| **[Spatio-Temporal Autoregressions for High Dimensional Matrix-Valued Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.10291v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Motivated by predicting intraday trading volume curves, we consider two spatio-temporal autoregressive models for matrix time series, in which each column may represent daily trading volume curve of one asset, and each row captures synchronized 5-minute volume intervals across multiple assets. While traditional matrix time series focus mainly on temporal evolution, our approach incorporates both spatial and temporal dynamics, enabling simultaneous analysis of interactions across multiple dimensions. The inherent endogeneity in spatio-temporal autoregressive models renders ordinary least squares estimation inconsistent. To overcome this difficulty while simultaneously estimating two distinct weight matrices with banded structure, we develop an iterated generalized Yule-Walker estimator by adapting a generalized method of moments framework based on Yule-Walker equations. Moreover, unlike conventional models that employ a single bandwidth parameter, the dual-bandwidth specification in our framework requires a new two-step, ratio-based sequential estimation procedure.</details> | |
| **[Neural networks for nonlinear regression with serially correlated disturbances: Evidence from cloud cover](https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.22483v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We propose a new treatment of nonlinear regression with serially correlated disturbances that incorporates autoregressive moving average structures into feedforward neural networks. The resulting model provides an alternative to modeling temporal dependence using lagged variables. In simulations, the proposed method accurately recovers regression functions of varying complexity and the underlying error dynamics across a range of time-series lengths and signal-to-noise ratios. Finite-sample properties and out-of-sample predictive performances are shown to be robust to model misspecification induced by omitted lagged variables and incorrect specification of the error dynamics. Cloud cover is an important factor in climate projections. In an empirical study of cloud cover prediction for a grid of locations within and around the Mediterranean Sea, our proposed model yields more accurate predictions than existing methods, including long short-term memory networks. Serially correlated disturbances in place of lagged variables improve predictive accuracy across a range of land and ocean environments. Improvements over linear models with serially correlated disturbances are particularly pronounced in mountain areas, consistent with the presence of stronger nonlinear effects in cloud formation in such regions.</details> | |
| **[From Recoverability to Functional Use: Auditing Temporal Reports in Time-Series Forecasting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10433v4)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Time-series forecasters increasingly accompany numerical predictions with explicit temporal reports, such as delays or selected history, but a correct report need not describe the information actually used by the forecast. We separate this problem into three questions: whether the target temporal structure is recoverable from the observed trajectory, whether the model reports it correctly, and whether the forecast functionally depends on the reported history. For point delays, we show that accurate prediction does not imply correct temporal use: two candidate delays can become statistically distinguishable as the trajectory grows even when substituting one for the other incurs little per-step prediction error. On controlled time-series tasks, learned forecasters can remain primarily dependent on history outside the reported structure even when the target is recoverable, the report is correct, and the forecast is accurate. Finally, report-controlled routing substantially improves report--forecast alignment without an observed loss in predictive accuracy. These results motivate separate statistical and functional validation of temporal reports.</details> | |
| **[PhyxMamba: Chaotic System Reconstruction from Short Context Observations with Generative State-Space Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.23863v3)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Understanding chaotic dynamics is a fundamental problem across scientific disciplines, including climate science, neuroscience, and fluid dynamics, yet direct experimentation and intervention in such systems are often infeasible. Chaotic system reconstruction aims to identify a surrogate dynamical model that preserves a system's invariant geometric and long-term temporal signatures from observed time series, thereby providing a controllable foundation for probing its mechanisms through systematic perturbation and analysis. However, faithful system reconstruction is hampered by high observational costs, which often restrict data to short, discontinuous sequences spanning only limited timescales. Conventional approaches such as reservoir computing struggle in this data-scarce regime since they typically require long-term synchronization windows to localize states on the attractor. Similarly, while deep learning-based time-series forecasting models effectively fit local trajectories, they often fail to capture global invariants, leading to a collapse of long-term dynamical integrity. Here, we propose PhyxMamba, a framework that synergizes Mamba-based state-space models with physics-informed principles. By leveraging time-delay embeddings to reconstruct the attractor manifold and employing a generative training scheme with geometry-aware regularization, PhyxMamba effectively captures both fine-grained local evolution and global physical constraints. Extensive experiments on simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba achieves superior reconstruction performance, outperforming the strongest baseline by over 44% in prediction accuracy and 8% in topological fidelity on the Lorenz96 system, while exhibiting strong robustness against partial observations and noise. Codes are available at https://github.com/changliu01/PhyxMamba.</details> | |
| **[JAPE: Joint Anomaly Prediction and Intrinsic Explanation in Multivariate Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11801v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Multivariate time-series anomaly prediction aims to identify whether and when anomalies will occur over a future horizon from historical observations. Existing methods primarily characterize anomalies as deviations in future numerical values, which may overlook subtle dependency changes induced by weak anomaly precursors and provide no native variable-level explanation together with the alert. To bridge these gaps, we propose JAPE, a Joint Anomaly Prediction and Explanation framework that lifts anomaly prediction from numerical-deviation modeling to dependency-structure modeling. JAPE is the first anomaly prediction framework to explicitly model evolving dependency structures for both point-wise alerting and native variable-level explanation. Specifically, JAPE (i) proposes a Decoupled Spatio-Temporal Representation (DSTR) backbone that decouples temporal and spatial modeling and captures lag-aware dependencies via learnable lag aggregation, thereby perceiving structural precursors before numerical deviations emerge; (ii) designs a dual-view alerting mechanism that fuses numerical forecasts with evolving dependency graphs for point-wise anomaly prediction, capturing structural evidence even under subtle numerical deviations; and (iii) presents Native Predictive Explanation (NPE), which directly reuses the predicted dependency graphs to rank variables by structural deviations without additional models or training. Extensive experiments on five real-world benchmarks across three prediction horizons demonstrate that JAPE improves average F1 and AUC-PR by 19.7% and 41.3%, respectively, while improving explainability with 26.6% gain in MRR.</details> | |
| **[Closing the Loop: A Control-Theoretic Framework for Provably Stable Time Series Forecasting with LLMs](https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.12756v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown exceptional potential in time series forecasting (TSF), leveraging their inherent sequential reasoning capabilities to model complex temporal dynamics. Existing approaches typically employ an autoregressive generation strategy to adapt LLMs for TSF. However, we identify a theoretical flaw in this paradigm: during inference, the model operates in an open-loop manner, recursively consuming its own generated outputs. This leads to error accumulation, where minor early deviations cascade into significant rollout drift over long horizons. In this paper, we reformulate autoregressive forecasting through the lens of control theory, proposing Feedback-driven LLM (F-LLM), a novel closed-loop framework. Unlike standard methods that passively propagate errors, F-LLM actively stabilizes the trajectory via a learnable residual estimator functioning as a system observer. Furthermore, we provide a mathematical proof that, under explicit contraction assumptions, this closed-loop mechanism guarantees a uniformly bounded step-wise error sequence within the local surrogate dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate that F-LLM significantly mitigates error propagation, achieving good performance on time series benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Zh-XY22/F-LLM.</details> | Accepted by ACM MM26 |
| **[AsyTO: Asymmetric Temporal Operator for Parameter-Efficient Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16098v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Multivariate time-series forecasting faces a structural dilemma: sharing one temporal predictor across variables is parameter-efficient but forces heterogeneous variables through an identical history-to-future map, whereas learning an independent predictor per variable restores flexibility at a cost that grows with the product of variable count, context length, and horizon. We argue that this dilemma dissolves once the object being compressed is the forecasting operator rather than the observed series. Auditing per-variable linear history-to-future maps across standard benchmarks, we find that a phase-locked seasonal component paired with a compact residual operator outperforms a dense phase-blind reference in most audited settings. The residual transport is also directional: lag-invariant alternatives consistently underperform asymmetric history-to-future maps. Guided by this structure, we propose AsyTO, an Asymmetric Temporal Operator that factorizes the tensor of per-variable operators into shared but distinct history-reading and future-writing temporal modes with per-variable mode-wise gains, complemented by a low-rank periodic prototype and a cycle-separable factorization of the temporal modes. Each forecast reads only its own variable's history, so parameters and compute grow linearly in the number of variables. Across eleven benchmarks and multiple forecast horizons, AsyTO attains the best lightweight error in 30 of 44 dataset-horizon settings, locating at the accuracy-compute Pareto frontier.</details> | <details><summary>8 pag...</summary>8 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables</details> |
| **[A Reflective LLM-based Agent to Guide Zero-shot Cryptocurrency Trading](https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.09546v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The utilization of Large Language Models (LLMs) in financial trading has primarily been concentrated within the stock market, aiding in economic and financial decisions. Yet, the unique opportunities presented by the cryptocurrency market, noted for its on-chain data's transparency and the critical influence of off-chain signals like news, remain largely untapped by LLMs. This work aims to bridge the gap by developing an LLM-based trading agent, CryptoTrade, which uniquely combines the analysis of on-chain and off-chain data. This approach leverages the transparency and immutability of on-chain data, as well as the timeliness and influence of off-chain signals, providing a comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market. CryptoTrade incorporates a reflective mechanism specifically engineered to refine its daily trading decisions by analyzing the outcomes of prior trading decisions. This research makes two significant contributions. Firstly, it broadens the applicability of LLMs to the domain of cryptocurrency trading. Secondly, it establishes a benchmark for cryptocurrency trading strategies. Through extensive experiments, CryptoTrade has demonstrated superior performance in maximizing returns compared to traditional trading strategies and time-series baselines across various cryptocurrencies and market conditions. Our code and data are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CryptoTrade-Public-92FC/.</details> | <details><summary>Publi...</summary>Published at EMNLP 2024 (Main Conference)</details> |
| **[Represent, Then Generate: Multimodal-Conditioned Time-Series Generation under Irregular Missingness](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12592v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Continuous physiological time series underpin modern clinical monitoring, yet many of the most informative signals are invasive, expensive, or simply unavailable for a given patient. Conditional generation offers a remedy: an absent signal can be synthesized from co-recorded signals and routine clinical variables. Existing generators, however, are built around a single conditioning modality and degrade when forced to handle the heterogeneous, irregularly missing mix of time-variant signals and static covariates seen in practice. We propose ReCoGen (Represent Conditions, then Generate), a two-stage framework that decouples multimodal condition representation from target generation. Stage I trains one masked autoencoder per modality, distilling each time-variant condition into a compact and missingness-tolerant token sequence. Stage II trains a flow-matching generator that fuses these tokens with static conditions to synthesize the target signal. Across three physiological benchmarks, including continuous glucose monitoring on AI-READI and arterial blood pressure generation on MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, ReCoGen attains the best downstream utility on all sixteen (dataset, task, metric) settings, surpassing six representative conditional generators; on thirteen of them its utility also reaches or exceeds the utility measured on the real signal, a reference we read as an approximate anchor rather than a ceiling. Ablations trace the gains to the conditioning path: learnable cross-attention over the frozen per-modality encoders, and a dual token-plus-AdaLN route for the static conditions. ReCoGen thus turns routinely collected signals into informative surrogates for invasive or unavailable ones, a step toward less invasive, lower-cost continuous clinical monitoring.</details> | 17 pages, 5 figures |
| **[GALA: Generation-Aware Cross-Modal Alignment for Text-to-Time-Series Synthesis](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13741v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Synthesizing time series from natural language is emerging as the most expressive form of controllable time series generation. However, existing text-conditioned generators either take caption embeddings frozen from off-the-shelf text encoders, or adapt the encoder end-to-end, letting the denoising loss shape the embeddings only as a by-product. In either case, the conditioning representation is never deliberately matched to the signal modality, leaving it ill-suited to guide generation. We address this by introducing GALA: Generation-Aware cross-modaL Alignment for text conditional time series generation. GALA is a two-stage approach that first contrastively couples a pretrained text encoder with a time-series foundation model into a shared embedding space with both encoders adapted to generation by an auxiliary generative loss, and then freezes the resulting caption embedding to drive a flow-matching generator. On TSFragment-600K, spanning four domains and three fragment lengths, GALA sets a new state of the art, ranking first in 30 of 36 metric columns and reaching an average rank of 1.08/1.08/1.42 at lengths 24/48/96 against 1.92/2.00/1.75 for the strongest baseline. We further find that generator-internal text encoders force a trade-off between fidelity and caption adherence, whereas conditioning on the aligned embedding breaks it: FID, CTTP, and JFTSD all improve at once. Ablating the auxiliary loss degrades FID, CTTP and JFTSD together, it indicates the generative term is a necessary component of the alignment rather than an add-on.</details> | 21 pages, 6 figures |
| **[A Forecast Combination Framework for Hierarchical and Grouped Time Series Reconciliation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13886v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Forecast combining and forecast reconciliation for hierarchical and grouped time series have largely developed as separate research areas. This paper connects the two by developing a forecast combination framework for forecast reconciliation. For each bottom-level series, we construct a maximal linearly independent set of structured candidate forecasts from aggregation constraints, and show that combining these candidates and aggregating the resulting bottom-level forecasts is equivalent to standard unbiased linear reconciliation. Within this representation, we prove that mean-squared-error optimal combination weights exactly recover the widely used Minimum Trace (MinT) reconciliation. We further show that the optimal weight problem is separable across different bottom-level series, each yielding a Bates--Granger optimal forecast combination. This reveals MinT as a collection of optimal combinations over hierarchy-induced candidate forecasts. For finite-sample estimation, we propose a modular penalized framework that nests existing MinT variants and supports rich extensions including covariance shrinkage, weight penalization, and scalable series-wise separate estimation. Empirical results show that the framework is practically implementable, competitive with existing methods, and can improve accuracy while preserving coherence. Overall, the forecast combination perspective offers new interpretations of existing reconciliation approaches and provides a flexible basis for designing new methods.</details> | |
| **[Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Language Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.00890v5)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>This paper presents a comparative analysis evaluating the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) against traditional macro time series forecasting approaches. In recent times, LLMs have surged in popularity for forecasting due to their ability to capture intricate patterns in data and quickly adapt across very different domains. However, their effectiveness in forecasting macroeconomic time series data compared to conventional methods remains an area of interest. To address this, we conduct a rigorous evaluation of LLMs against traditional macro forecasting methods, using as common ground the FRED-MD database. Our findings provide valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of LLMs in forecasting macroeconomic time series, shedding light on their applicability in real-world scenarios</details> | |
| **[Adapting LLMs to Time Series Forecasting via Temporal Heterogeneity Modeling and Representation Alignment](https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.07195v2)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Recent advances have demonstrated that Large Language Models (LLMs) can be effectively adapted for time series forecasting, revealing strong potential beyond natural language tasks. However, their performance remains constrained by two fundamental challenges: the inherent heterogeneity of temporal patterns and the modality gap between continuous numerical signals and discrete language representations. In this work, we propose \textbf{TALON} (Temporal-heterogeneity And Language-Oriented Network), a unified framework that enhances LLM-based forecasting by modeling temporal heterogeneity and promoting representation alignment. Specifically, we design a Heterogeneous Temporal Encoder that partitions multivariate time series into structurally coherent segments, enabling localized expert modeling across diverse temporal patterns. To bridge the modality gap, we introduce a Representation Alignment Module that projects temporal features toward LLM-compatible representations, making time series more amenable to LLMs and thereby unlocking their modeling potential, while eliminating the need for handcrafted prompts during inference. Extensive experiments on seven real-world benchmarks demonstrate that TALON achieves superior performance across all datasets, with average MSE improvements of up to 11% over recent state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining higher efficiency. These results underscore the effectiveness of incorporating both pattern-aware modeling and representation-level alignment when adapting LLMs for time series forecasting. The code is available at: https://github.com/syrGitHub/TALON.</details> | |
| **[FirstDiff: One-Step Diffusion-Based Anomaly Detection for Multivariate Time Series via Initial Noise Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15727v1)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Diffusion models have recently shown strong potential for multivariate time-series anomaly detection by learning the distribution of normal data through iterative denoising. Existing diffusion-based approaches, however, typically perform anomaly detection after completing the reverse diffusion process, relying primarily on the final reconstructed signal and overlooking informative representations produced during denoising. This design incurs substantial computational cost and limits the use of intermediate diffusion information for anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose FirstDiff, a diffusion-based anomaly detection framework based on the observation that the predicted diffusion noise at the initial reverse-diffusion evaluation already contains sufficient information for accurate anomaly detection. FirstDiff models the statistical distribution of predicted diffusion noise under normal behavior using validation data, enabling anomaly inference from a single denoising-network evaluation rather than completing the reverse diffusion trajectory. To model complex temporal and inter-sensor dependencies, FirstDiff employs a Diffusion Transformer as the denoising backbone. Extensive experiments on five public benchmark datasets demonstrate that FirstDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance while reducing diffusion inference from the full reverse trajectory to a single denoising-network evaluation.</details> | |
| **[Multiscale Dynamic Dependence Estimation over Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.30399v2)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>In many settings, observed multivariate time series are often nonstationary in nature, i.e., their second order properties vary over time. An additional feature is that their cross-channel dependencies are structured by an underlying network. Together, they give rise to complex interactions between temporal dynamics and network topology. We propose Locally Stationary Wavelet processes on Networks (Net-LSW), a new framework for modelling multiscale, time-varying dependencies that explicitly incorporates the network structure. Unlike traditional multivariate approaches, the Net-LSW process encodes the graph directly in the covariance structure of its random increments. We introduce the concept of local partial correlation graph, mathematically connecting absent edges to zero entries in the time-scale dependent inverse wavelet spectral structure. For inference on the local cross-nodal (partial) dependence, we develop a novel subprocess-based estimation scheme and establish its consistency properties. This new pipeline for network-based nonstationary process modelling, complete with estimation and simulation capabilities that extend outside time-varying vector autoregressive models, is shown to accurately recover evolving dependence structures whilst respecting the underlying graph topology. The analysis of daily stock price volatilities across a global bank network captures multiscale, highly nonstationary dependencies and identifies time-varying systemic shifts during major financial shocks, including Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.</details> | |
| **[A Responsible Artificial Intelligence Framework for Groundwater Modeling](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15657v1)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The rapid development and widespread application of artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked intense discussions on how to deploy responsible AI systems in a manner aligned with human values and ethical standards. Compared to fields like healthcare, energy, or finance, the application of AI in groundwater is relatively limited, and research on responsible AI is even more scarce. Taking the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin as the study area, this paper proposes six Responsible AI principles: transparency, technical robustness, privacy governance, fairness, accountability, and sustainability. LSTM and Transformer time-series models are developed using multi-source hydrometeorological data, and validated via post-hoc interpretability, Monte Carlo simulation, and scenario analysis. The results show that Transformer outperforms LSTM in accuracy, robustness, and interpretability, demonstrating the operability and practical value of Responsible AI principles in groundwater prediction to support sustainable water management under climate change and human activities.</details> | |
| **[Clustered Local Projections for Short and Ultra-Short Time Series -- A Hierarchical Bayesian Framework](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04631v3)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Estimating the dynamic effects of economic shocks in short and very short samples is impeded by a lack of degrees of freedom. We offer a solution based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework for estimating local projection (LP) impulse response functions across a panel of related time series. The framework explicitly accommodates unbalanced panels in which some series are substantially shorter than others, allowing the short series to borrow information from longer ones at horizons where the short series carry little or no own data. Since series might exhibit heterogeneous dynamics, we develop a sparse finite mixture pool that clusters units by similarity of their impulse response profiles. We show in simulations that our approach substantially improves LP estimation accuracy relative to the standard approach if the time series are short while producing similar LPs for longer time series. Using a US price dataset, augmented with survey responses, we find that supply-chain and oil shocks trigger heterogeneous reactions of different price measures, with headline price indices responding more sharply than their core counterparts and goods prices changing more than services prices.</details> | |
| **[QSMP: finding representative time series subsequences through Quick Shift+Matrix Profile](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15492v1)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Finding representative waveforms in long time series has scientific and practical value in many domains, as it enables summarization and visualization of large time series datasets, and downstream tasks like classification and forecasting. We present here QSMP, a method to find representative waveforms in long time series through a density-guided clustering of time series subsequences. Our method makes a novel connection between Quick Shift, a mode-seeking algorithm, and the Matrix Profile, a time series similarity-search data structure, to adapt Quick Shift to the clustering of subsequences in long time series, with a space complexity that is superior to the state-of-the-art method. Our experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that QSMP can be a valuable tool to summarize and visualize long time series by finding representative waveforms.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted for publication in the 2026 IEEE International Workshop on Machine Learning for Signal Processing (MLSP)</details> |
| **[Prediction Inference of Time Series with Standard ReLU Deep Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15362v1)** | 2026-08-15 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We propose a methodology based on the standard ReLU Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to make predictions and quantify their uncertainty. Classically, people rely on linear, non-linear, or non-parametric kernel methods to fit and then predict the time series. As the universal approximation ability was revealed for DNN, its application has become more and more popular for prediction tasks in various scientific areas. However, the corresponding uncertainty quantification has not been studied thoroughly. Particularly, the uncertainty in prediction will consist of two parts: (1) the future variability; (2) the estimation variability within training data. To capture both variabilities, we build the so-called pertinent prediction interval (PPI) with the DNN model estimator. We first explore the consistency property of the DNN estimator with beta-mixing dependent data. Subsequently, we show that the implied forward bootstrap series is still beta-mixing and possesses the same stationary distribution as the original time series in probability, which is a key condition to enable the PPI. Lastly, the desired PPI is built after imposing minimal conditions on the limiting distribution of predictive roots. Simulations and real-data analysis are deployed to challenge our approach with standard non-parametric methods.</details> | |
| **[ReasonCast: Agentic Demand Forecasting with Selective Semantic Reasoning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15291v1)** | 2026-08-15 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Demand forecasting increasingly requires combining two complementary sources of information: historical sales reveal recurring numerical dynamics, while future promotions, holidays, price changes, and platform interventions provide forward-looking knowledge. Existing text-enhanced forecasting methods often encode such context into generic representations and fuse it uniformly with time-series features, without explicitly distinguishing which semantic effects are forecast-relevant or how they should modify future dynamics. We introduce ReasonCast, a structured semantic intervention framework that translates event knowledge into forecast-specific operations. An agent examines the event context, the no-text forecast, and its uncertainty to determine whether textual reasoning is needed. Rather than injecting free-form text, ReasonCast represents event knowledge through structured fields describing event relevance, demand direction, temporal shape, amplitude, and peak intensity. These fields interact selectively with temporal components of a time-series foundation model. An additive path corrects local trends and temporal shapes, while a multiplicative path captures event-driven level shifts. ReasonCast introduces a forecast-grounded post-training curriculum. Schema SFT establishes semantic fields; semantic-field RL calibrates direction, shape, amplitude, and peak judgments; and forecast-utility RL evaluates semantic interventions through a frozen forecaster, aligning reasoning outputs with marginal forecast improvement. ReasonCast lowers WMAPE by 3.29, 1.25, and 0.47 percentage points on holiday-sensitive categories, mega-sale-sensitive categories, and M5 event windows, respectively. On stable-sales periods, indiscriminate semantic intervention increases WMAPE by 1.68 percentage points, whereas suppressing unnecessary intervention preserves the numerical backbone.</details> | |
| **[SL-S4Wave: Self-Supervised Learning of Physiological Waveforms with Structured State Space Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.19888v2)** | 2026-08-15 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Modeling long-sequence medical time series data, such as electrocardiograms (ECG), poses significant challenges due to high sampling rates, multichannel signal complexity, inherent noise, and limited labeled data. While recent self-supervised learning (SSL) methods, based on various encoder architectures such as convolutional neural networks, have been proposed to learn representations from unlabeled data, they often fall short in capturing long-range dependencies and noise-invariant features. Structured state space models (S4) excel at long-sequence modeling, but existing S4 architectures fail to capture the unique characteristics of multichannel physiological waveforms. In this work, we propose SL-S4Wave, a self-supervised learning framework that combines contrastive learning with a tailored encoder built on structured state space models. The encoder incorporates multi-layer global convolution using multiscale subkernels, enabling the capture of both fine-grained local patterns and long-range temporal dependencies in noisy, high-resolution multichannel waveforms. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that SL-S4Wave (1) consistently outperforms state-of-the-art supervised and self-supervised baselines in a challenging arrhythmia detection task, (2) achieves high performance with significantly fewer labeled examples, showcasing strong label efficiency, and (3) maintains robust performance on long waveform segments, highlighting its capacity to model complex temporal dynamics in long sequences that most existing approaches fail to efficiently model, and (4) transfers effectively to unseen arrhythmia types, underscoring its robust cross-domain generalization. We additionally evaluate SL-S4Wave on multiple EEG tasks, achieving superior performance over strong baselines, demonstrating generalizability of our approach beyond cardiac waveforms.</details> | |
| **[Federated Self-Supervised Modulation Classification under Non-IID and Imbalanced Data](https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04927v2)** | 2026-08-15 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Automatic modulation classification (AMC) is a core enabler of cognitive wireless systems, providing spectrum awareness and supporting adaptive communication at the network edge. However, training AMC models on centrally aggregated data incurs high communication overhead, raises privacy concerns, and often lacks robustness to real-world conditions. We propose FedSSL-AMC, a federated self-supervised framework for learning AMC models from sparsely labeled, distributed I/Q time-series data. Participating clients collaboratively train a causal, time-dilated CNN encoder using triplet-loss self-supervision on unlabeled signals, followed by lightweight local SVMs trained on limited labeled samples. This enables communication-round-efficient, robust representation learning under class imbalance and channel variability. We establish convergence guarantees for a proximal variant of the encoder-training procedure and derive a separability bound for the downstream classifier under feature noise. Experiments on synthetic and over-the-air datasets demonstrate improvements over supervised FL baselines across all three datasets and nearly all evaluated settings involving heterogeneous SNRs, carrier-frequency offsets, and non-IID label distributions.</details> | |
| **[OTIS: Learning High-Quality Time Series Features With Tiny Encoders](https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.07299v3)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We introduce OTIS, an open time series encoder that yields high-quality time series features for downstream deployment on any system, including resource-constrained wearables and industrial sensors. Currently, the development of powerful general-purpose encoders relies on the scaling laws hypothesis, using large encoder sizes to memorise the heterogeneous distributions of multi-domain training data. However, this reliance on scale creates a barrier to real-world utility, rendering deployment on resource-constrained systems infeasible due to strict memory, energy, and latency constraints. Surprisingly, we find that tailoring standard masked modelling pre-training to time series properties yields a tiny $7.1\,$M encoder that matches the state-of-the-art performance of $54\times$ larger encoders across $162$ tasks, while requiring $10\times$ less memory, $43\times$ less energy, and $37\times$ lower latency. To achieve this without the capacity tax, we introduce three novel components: (1) a domain-aware tokeniser to resolve conflicting semantics within multi-domain training data; (2) a dual masking strategy to capture spatiotemporal structures and temporal causality; and (3) a structure-aware objective to decouple feature learning from modelling noise. Consequently, OTIS produces high-quality time series features that enable state-of-the art performance in discriminative tasks and even extend seamlessly to generative tasks at minimal additional cost. To democratise access to powerful time series features on any system, we release our code and pre-trained weights.</details> | |
| **[Change Point Detection and Localization in High-Dimensional Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14344v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We present new inference tools for change point detection in high-dimensional time series. We discuss two distinct statistical applications: First, sequential change point testing in an incoming data-stream. Second, retrospective localization of multiple changes, with confidence intervals at a globally controlled error level. Test statistics are built on the maximum norm to generate power against sparse and asynchronous changes. Both problems are tackled by related multiscale statistics that search for changes in the data at many different levels of resolution. For fixed dimension, our statistical approaches can be validated using traditional Hölderian invariance principles. In this paper, we present the high-dimensional analogue: Hölder-Gauss-approximations, which can be (roughly) interpreted as the Gaussian approximation for a Hölder-norm of the high-dimensional partial sum process. Such approximations are of interest beyond change point detection and can be used for other problems such as for stationarity testing in high dimensions. We evaluate finite-sample performance in a simulation study and give an application to air contamination due to wildfires in California, which occurs asynchronously across a panel of measuring stations.</details> | |
| **[Filling survey gaps in food security monitoring with spatio-temporal additive Gaussian process models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14314v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Ensuring food security across all regions of a country requires continuous monitoring, yet household surveys often leave significant spatio-temporal gaps due to resource constraints and operational priorities. In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal additive Gaussian process model to estimate sub-national food security time series by regions. To address the computational cost of Gaussian process models, we exploit Kronecker structure of the spatio-temporal covariance matrix for scalable inference. We evaluate the proposed approach on food security survey data from Nigeria and Chad comparing it against other statistical and machine learning models and show how our proposal achieves better accuracy while retaining reliable uncertainty, especially when covariates are informative. We further apply the model to generate estimates for Nigerian states not covered by the survey, demonstrating its operational value for filling geographic gaps in food security monitoring.</details> | |
| **[Learning to Forecast Crop Growth from Earth Observation Data](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14281v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Forecasting crop growth across agricultural landscapes is important for improving the productivity, resilience, and operational management of farming systems. In this work, we investigate whether Earth observation time series and meteorological drivers can be used to predict future canopy development at country scale. We focus on winter wheat and formulate crop growth prediction as forecasting future leaf area index (LAI) trajectories beyond the last available Sentinel-2 observation. We evaluate this task on a multi-year dataset which spans the entire country of Switzerland, containing over 20 million pixel-level Sentinel-2-derived LAI time series paired with meteorological variables. Because cloud cover and revisit gaps leave LAI supervision sparse, models fit the few valid (cloud-free) LAI observations yet oscillate implausibly between them, producing trajectories no real canopy could follow. We introduce a lightweight unimodal shape regulariser which improves trajectory plausibility with negligible loss in accuracy. We compare deep learning sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) models with classic machine learning baselines and show that Seq2Seq models generalise well across years, achieving $\mathrm{R}^2$ above 0.8 and consistently outperforming conventional approaches. Together, these results demonstrate that remote sensing and weather-driven sequence modelling can learn crop growth dynamics at landscape scale. S</details> | |
| **[Causal Forecasting in Panel Data: A Two-Way Synthetic Forecasting Approach](https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.18512v2)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Estimating causal effects in panel data is central to policy evaluation, yet existing methods largely address retrospective questions: what would have happened to a target unit under a different intervention during the observed panel? In many applications, however, decision-makers instead face a prospective question: what will happen to a target unit under an intervention it has not yet experienced, beyond the observed horizon? We develop a framework for such causal forecasting problems by combining the counterfactual logic of synthetic controls methods with the extrapolative structure of multivariate time-series forecasting. Building on latent factor models for synthetic controls, we impose a low-rank temporal structure on the treated latent time factors to identify prospective causal forecast estimands. We operationalize this idea through the Two-Way Synthetic Forecasting estimator (TWSF), which learns cross-unit relationships from pre-treatment outcomes and temporal dynamics from the post-treatment trajectories of donors exposed to the intervention of interest. Under suitable conditions, we establish finite-sample error bounds and pointwise consistency, and derive asymptotic normality and feasible pointwise inference for prespecified linear summaries over fixed multi-step horizons. Simulation studies support the theoretical results, and an application to the opening of NFL stadiums during the 2020 season illustrates how TWSF can inform prospective policy evaluation using only information available at the decision date.</details> | |
| **[TimeSage-EV: A Live Benchmark for Agentic Time Series Analysis in Evolving Environments](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14270v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Time series analysis in high-stakes domains relies on recurring data releases, where new observations can alter the evidence base and the validity of later conclusions. Existing time series QA benchmarks mostly rely on fixed snapshots, leaving temporal validity and cutoff-aware evidence use unevaluated. We introduce TimeSage-EV, a live benchmark for agentic time series analysis in evolving environments. It tracks 60 real institutional scenarios across 6 domains, comprising 1,485 scenario-period QA pairs from Feb 2023 to May 2026 and spanning monthly, weekly, daily, and irregular release cadences. At each period, large language model (LLM) agents receive time series data and source reports, while the withheld target release provides ground truth. TimeSage-EV evaluates state identification, data summarization, and outlook reasoning. Experiments with frontier LLM agents and TimeSage-1.0, a novel self-evolving agent with a reusable analytical skill library, reveal significant performance gaps across model tiers and recurring failures in temporal validity, exogenous context use, and adaptation. We release TimeSage-EV as a research resource with monthly updates, code, a leaderboard, and failure-mode analyses.</details> | |
| **[Connected Subspace Clustering: Hardness, a Scalable Heuristic, and an Application to Sea Level Geodesy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14215v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Constrained optimization extends classical optimization by integrating side information, making it widely applicable across scientific and engineering domains. Consider a setting where we measure variables at different physical locations. When grouping these measurements, we often want clusters that are both internally similar and physically coherent. Thus, we have a constrained clustering problem where the constraint models coherence. Motivated by an application in geodesy, where contiguous regions of the sea surface must be identified for principal component analysis, we introduce the Connected Subspace Clustering problem: given high-dimensional points and a connectivity graph, partition them into $k$ connected clusters, minimizing their total squared distance to the clusters' best-fit $m'$-dimensional affine subspaces. We prove that, even for $m' = 0$ and a grid graph with holes, the problem is NP-hard to approximate within $Ω(n^{1/2-\varepsilon})$ for every $\varepsilon>0$, where $n$ is the number of measurements. We then introduce an efficient Lloyd-style heuristic that alternates subspace fitting with an iterative merging procedure to enforce connectivity. Our method returns exactly $k$ connected regions by construction, whereas unconstrained methods leave up to $1{,}966$ disconnected fragments at higher cost. In a study of 160 configurations on global sea level time series, our merging-based repair is the strongest of four strategies in $73.75\%$ of cases, and consistently outperforms competitors such as (connected) Ward's method across all tested cluster counts. The resulting regions isolate signals aligning with climate indices such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole. Although developed for geodesy, the approach applies to other spatially embedded multivariate time series, such as climate fields, remote sensing, neuroimaging, and sensor networks.</details> | |
| **[Separation capacity of linear reservoirs with random connectivity matrix](https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.17429v4)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>A natural hypothesis for the success of reservoir computing in generic tasks is the ability of the untrained reservoir to map distinct input time series to separable reservoir states, a property we term separation capacity. In this work, we develop a rigorous mathematical framework for analysing the separation capacity of random linear reservoirs. We show that the expected separation induced by a random reservoir is completely characterised by the spectral properties of a positive semi-definite matrix naturally associated with the connectivity matrix, which we call the generalised matrix of moments. Taking Gaussian connectivity matrices as an example, we investigate how separation depends on the reservoir dimension $N$, the scaling of the connectivity matrix, and structural assumptions such as symmetry. In the symmetric case, we show that, although the classical scaling $N^{-1/2}$ yields the most balanced separation for large reservoirs, the quality of separation inevitably deteriorates as the length of the input time series increases. In contrast, for reservoirs with independent and identically distributed connectivity entries, we prove that the classical scaling $N^{-1/2}$ is asymptotically optimal from the perspective of separation and derive quantitative bounds describing the evolution of separation with the time horizon. Finally, numerical experiments suggest a strong practical connection between balanced separation profiles and downstream learning performance. Beyond providing a theoretical justification for several common reservoir design choices, our results introduce separation capacity as a tractable and informative framework for the analysis of random reservoirs.</details> | |
| **[Forecast Collapse in Time-Series Foundation Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14106v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>When forecasting hourly returns for 1,000 US equities, we observe an unexpected phenomenon: predictions become nearly flat and show poor stock ranking, as measured by cross-sectional correlation. We call this forecast collapse. Surprisingly, the phenomenon largely disappears when forecasting trading volume under the same setting. We investigate forecast collapse across time-series foundation models (TSFMs), twelve deep-learning forecasting models, and 97 public benchmark configurations, and find that it is closely tied to target predictability. We identify two distinct reasons behind it: low predictability limits the amplitude of calibrated point forecasts, while per-series objectives leave cross-series structure unidentified. These findings reveal a calibration-ranking tradeoff: optimizing squared error leads to flat predictions, whereas directly optimizing cross-sectional correlation improves ranking but can inflate forecast amplitude by more than an order of magnitude. To address this tradeoff, we introduce CalibRank, a simple objective that balances calibration and ranking. On Finance1K, CalibRank nearly triples cross-sectional correlation while keeping amplitude close to the target, and improves correlation on all tested models. Our results reveal a blind spot in conventional time-series evaluation: per-series metrics can hide failures in cross-series structure needed by downstream decisions.</details> | <details><summary>27 pa...</summary>27 pages, 3 figures, 5 tables. Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/abel-lab/finance1k</details> |
| **[When Denoising Hurts: Rethinking the Terminal Step of Diffusion Time Series Forecasters -- Extended Version](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14067v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Diffusion models offer a natural way to model uncertainty in time series forecasting, yet their iterative sampling process is often treated as a uniformly beneficial refinement procedure. Our study challenges this view by examining how forecast quality evolves throughout reverse diffusion. We find that general temporal structure is often recovered at relatively high noise levels, whereas continued low-noise refinement can introduce statistical drift and degrade the final forecast. Our analysis further suggests that this behavior explains why prior methods often favor relatively narrow diffusion architecture and schedule design. Building on this observation, we propose a label-free global stopping criterion that detects the optimal termination point, eventually speeding up inference and improving predictive accuracy. Additionally, since early stopping terminates inference in high-noise regions, we propose a Bernoulli timestep sampler that concentrates training on this region while preserving coverage of the full diffusion process. Extensive experiments conducted across eight real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to existing approaches.</details> | |
| **[Model-agnostic Retrieval-Augmented Extended Forecasting for time series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14054v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Time series forecasting with pretrained foundation models has demonstrated strong zero-shot capabilities. However, achieving optimal performance on time series with short or negligible historical data in domain-specific applications typically requires adaptation via either fine-tuning or RAG. While fine-tuning is effective, it incurs substantial computational costs. This work explores RAG within univariate time series (Retrieval Augmented Generation) as a more efficient alternative, in particular RAF (Retrieval Augmented Forecasting), and introduces RAEF (Retrieval-Augmented Extended Forecasting), a model-agnostic method built upon RAF. RAEF incorporates key refinements to the retrieval and aggregation mechanisms: (1) direct retrieval in input-space rather than embedding-space, reducing inference overhead, and (2) concatenation-based aggregation that preserves temporal structure instead of averaging. Empirical evaluation across multiple benchmark datasets demonstrates that RAEF outperforms RAF in both accuracy and inference overhead. Furthermore, comprehensive comparisons with zero-shot and fine-tuned foundation models show that RAEF achieves competitive or superior performance to fine-tuning while avoiding its computational burden, establishing it as a practical and scalable approach for domain adaptation in time series forecasting.</details> | 6 pages, 1 figure |
| **[AlphaSeek: Trajectory-Level Self-Iterative Factor Mining Framework for Multi-Source Financial Data](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13913v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>With the rapid rise of large language models, LLM-driven quantitative factor mining has become an increasingly active research area. However, existing methods still suffer from subjective direction design, limited integration of up-to-date multi-source information, semantic drift, factor redundancy, and the absence of an end-to-end feedback loop from factor discovery to portfolio backtesting. To address these limitations, we propose AlphaSeek, an end-to-end factor mining framework for quantitative investment that integrates automated direction discovery, trajectory-level factor evolution mining and self-iterative portfolio optimization. AlphaSeek first collects and summarizes multi-source financial information to identify promising mining directions. It then performs trajectory-level factor mining by extending the optimization unit from a single factor expression to a complete research trajectory covering hypothesis generation, factor construction, validation, backtesting, and feedback. Based on this design, we introduce evolution operators - parallel direction expansion, mutation and crossover - to improve search diversity, refinement quality and factor robustness. Finally, AlphaSeek constructs a self-iterative factor portfolio, allowing newly discovered factors to interact with an existing state-of-the-art(SOTA) factor library under redundancy-aware constraints. Experiments on CSI300 show that AlphaSeek achieves the strongest overall strategy-level performance on CSI300 with ARR of 8.28%, IR of 1.29 and MDD of 6.28%, while remaining competitive on factor predictive metrics with IC of 0.0454, while factors mined on CSI300 also achieve strong time-series return performance on CSI500 than other models, suggesting promising cross-market transferability under a zero-shot setting.</details> | |
| **[PEFT-MuTS: A Multivariate Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning Framework for Remaining Useful Life Prediction based on Cross-domain Time Series Representation Model](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.22631v2)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The application of data-driven remaining useful life (RUL) prediction has long been constrained by the availability of large amount of degradation data. Mainstream solutions such as domain adaptation and meta-learning still rely on large amounts of historical degradation data from equipment that is identical or similar to the target, which imposes significant limitations in practical applications. This study investigates PEFT-MuTS, a Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning framework for few-shot RUL prediction, built on cross-domain pre-trained time-series representation models. Contrary to the widely held view that knowledge transfer in RUL prediction can only occur within similar devices, we demonstrate that substantial benefits can be achieved through pre-training process with large-scale cross-domain time series datasets. A independent feature tuning network and a meta-variable-based low rank multivariate fusion mechanism are developed to enable the pre-trained univariate time-series representation backbone model to fully exploit the multivariate relationships in degradation data for downstream RUL prediction task. Additionally, we introduce a zero-initialized regressor that stabilizes the fine-tuning process under few-shot conditions. Experiments on aero-engine and industrial bearing datasets demonstrate that our method can achieve effective RUL prediction even when less than 1\% of samples of target equipment are used. Meanwhile, it substantially outperforms conventional supervised and few-shot approaches while markedly reducing the data required to achieve high predictive accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/fuen1590/PEFT-MuTS.</details> | |
| **[Change-Point Detection for Heterogeneous High-Dimensional Functional Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13880v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>High-dimensional functional panels consist of temporally ordered curves observed across many subjects and naturally exhibit heterogeneous structural changes. Under sparse subject-level break signals or opposite-signed shifts, traditional mean-aggregated CUSUM procedures may suffer noticeable power loss due to signal attenuation or cancellation induced by cross-sectional averaging. We propose a novel Energy--PE statistic, which combines subject-wise squared CUSUM energy aggregation with a generalized power-enhancement component. The energy aggregation preserves subject-level evidence under sign-heterogeneous changes, while the power-enhancement component improves sensitivity to sparse weak break signals. Under regularity conditions, we establish the asymptotic behavior of the proposed statistic. We further incorporate a latent group structure and an information-criterion-based clustering algorithm to estimate the unknown group number and membership for heterogeneous break points. Numerical studies and an intraday stock application demonstrate that Energy--PE controls size, improves power under sparse and sign-heterogeneous alternatives, and yields interpretable post-test summaries.</details> | |
| **[Detection of Structural Distortions in Functional Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13762v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>In the era of modern data science, the rapid proliferation of high-dimensional and functional datasets has fostered increasing interest in the investigation of paradigm shifts and structural breaks. Unlike classical univariate time series, structural changes in functional data need not occur simultaneously across the entire domain; instead, they may emerge locally, producing heterogeneous distortions across the underlying functional structure. The patterns of instability often exhibit sparsity, where it is not known \textit{a priori} which specific parameters are undergoing a transition. However, in functional contexts, these shifts are often "localised". The difficulty lies in the high dimensionality of the parameter space, where the signal-to-noise ratio may be low for individual components, necessitating the aggregation of information across dimensions to detect a global change. This paper addresses the problem of detecting structural shifts in a functional time series from a Bayesian perspective. We have developed various novel methodologies that capture the inherent structural distortion in a sequence of random functions, both individually and simultaneously. The formulation of the problem is based on the state-space representation of a functional time series. Efficient Blocked Gibbs Sampling algorithms have been proposed to identify these locations accurately. Further, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods on several financial and temperature datasets.</details> | |
| **[CarbonBench: A Global Benchmark for Upscaling of Carbon Fluxes Using Zero-Shot Learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.09868v2)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Accurately quantifying terrestrial carbon exchange is essential for climate policy and carbon accounting, yet models must generalize to ecosystems underrepresented in sparse eddy covariance observations. Despite this challenge being a natural instance of zero-shot spatial transfer learning for time series regression, no standardized benchmark exists to rigorously evaluate model performance across geographically distinct locations with different climate regimes and vegetation types. We introduce CarbonBench, the first benchmark for zero-shot spatial transfer in carbon flux upscaling. CarbonBench comprises over 1.3 million daily observations from 567 flux tower sites globally (2000-2024). It provides: (1) stratified evaluation protocols that explicitly test generalization across unseen vegetation types and climate regimes, separating spatial transfer from temporal autocorrelation; (2) a harmonized set of remote sensing and meteorological features to enable flexible architecture design; and (3) baselines ranging from tree-based methods to domain-generalization architectures. By bridging machine learning methodologies and Earth system science, CarbonBench aims to enable systematic comparison of transfer learning methods, serves as a testbed for regression under distribution shift, and contributes to the next-generation climate modeling efforts.</details> | |
| **[Time-Series Forecasting in Safety-Critical Environments: An Open-Source Package for EU-AI-Act-Compliant Development / Zeitreihenprognose in sicherheitskritischen Umgebungen: Ein Open-Source-Paket für die KI-VO-konforme Entwicklung](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.23859v3)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>With spotforecast2-safe we present an integrated Compliance-by-Design approach to Python-based point forecasting of time series in safety-critical environments. A review of the relevant open-source tooling shows that existing compliance solutions operate consistently outside of the library to be used - e.g. as scanners, templates, or runtime layers. spotforecast2-safe takes the inverse approach and anchors the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (the EU AI Act, in German: KI-VO), of IEC 61508, of the ISA/IEC 62443 standards series, and of the Cyber Resilience Act within the library: in application-programming-interface contracts, persistence formats, and continuous-integration gates. The approach is operationalised by four non-negotiable code-development rules (zero dead code, deterministic processing, fail-safe handling, minimal dependencies) together with the corresponding process rules (model card, executable docstrings, CI workflows, Common-Platform-Enumeration (CPE) identifier, REUSE-conformant licensing, release pipeline). Interactive visualisation, hyperparameter tuning and automated machine learning (AutoML), as well as deep-learning and large-language-model backends are deliberately excluded, because each of these components either enlarges the attack surface, introduces non-determinism, or impairs reproducibility. Every article of the EU AI Act that is relevant to the library is discussed in detail. A bidirectional traceability matrix maps every regulatory provision onto the corresponding mechanism in the code; an end-to-end example of European-market electricity generation, transmission, and consumption forecasting demonstrates the application. The package is open-source and available under Affero General Public License (AGPL) 3.0-or-later.</details> | <details><summary>Versi...</summary>Version 3. Working paper. Bilingual twin paper: English version first, German original below (100 pages total). Single shared bibliography</details> |
| **[Intern-S2-Preview: Scientific Agentic Foundation Model](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13505v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Scientific discovery increasingly requires AI systems that can reason over scientific evidence of heterogeneous modalities, interact with scientific tools and environments, and sustain progress across long task horizons. We present Intern-S2-Preview, a series of scientific agentic foundation models designed to support multimodal scientific understanding, reasoning, generation, and long-horizon tasks. The training pipeline begins with scientific multimodal pre-training over rendered scientific documents, interleaved image-text data, and diverse scientific corpora. Starting from the pretrained checkpoint, we apply a unified post-training pipeline consisting of supervised fine-tuning, scalable multi-task reinforcement learning (RL), black- and white-box agentic RL, and on-policy distillation. This pipeline is supported by practical techniques that improve rollout and training stability and efficiency, including partial rollout with off-policy correction, adaptive length regularization, online speculative decoding, robust multi-task optimization, and trace-aware experience assembly for agentic tasks. At the architecture level, Intern-S2-Preview-397B extends time series modelling from efficient long-sequence understanding to numerical forecasting, while Memory Decoder is studied as a separate memory-augmented path for rapid scientific specialization without modifying the frozen 397B backbone. Evaluations across scientific, multimodal, agentic, and general-purpose benchmarks show that Intern-S2-Preview-397B achieves competitive or leading results in multiple settings. The time series modules improve scientific signal understanding and forecasting on SciTS, while the separate Intern-MemDec-4B extension improves the Biology-Instructions average score from 56.92 to 60.32 without modifying the frozen 397B backbone.</details> | 35 pages, 12 figures |
| **[Thermalizing Stochastic Programs](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.01615v2)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We present a set of tools for mapping general stochastic programs to thermodynamic hardware designed for energy-efficient stochastic sampling. Given a target stochastic program expressed as a Directed Factor Graph (DFG) of stochastic channels, or equivalently as a Parametrized Stochastic Circuit (PSC), we first introduce a method to approximately compile each factor in the DFG to an Energy-Based Model (EBM) that is native to the hardware. We then analyze how the error of the compiled DFG accumulates from the per-factor errors, and introduce two training refinements, context matching and trajectory-level REINFORCE post-training, which can reduce the residual error left by training each factor in isolation. The \texttt{thermalizers} framework takes a stochastic program expressed in the \texttt{torx} library and replaces its factors with thermodynamic kernels implemented and sampled using the \texttt{thrml} library. We demonstrate it on several example applications, including a market simulator that learns the joint day-to-day dynamics of a panel of financial time series from recorded market history alone, a probabilistic model from mathematical ecology, Gibbs sampling of an EBM the hardware cannot natively express, and a sequential Bayesian design loop over a Gaussian stochastic circuit.</details> | |
| **[Cueless EEG imagined speech for subject identification: dataset and benchmarks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.09700v2)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals have emerged as a promising modality for biometric identification. While previous studies have explored the use of imagined speech with semantically meaningful words for subject identification, most have relied on additional visual or auditory cues. In this study, we introduce a cueless EEG-based imagined speech paradigm, where subjects imagine the pronunciation of semantically meaningful words without any external cues. This innovative approach addresses the limitations of prior methods by requiring subjects to select and imagine words from a predefined list naturally. The dataset comprises over 4,350 trials from 11 subjects across five sessions. We assess a variety of classification methods, including traditional machine learning techniques such as Support Vector Machines (SVM) and XGBoost, as well as time-series foundation models and deep learning architectures specifically designed for EEG classification, such as EEG Conformer and Shallow ConvNet. A session-based hold-out validation strategy was employed to ensure reliable evaluation and prevent data leakage. Our results demonstrate outstanding classification accuracy, reaching 97.93%. These findings highlight the potential of cueless EEG paradigms for secure and reliable subject identification in real-world applications, such as brain-computer interfaces (BCIs).</details> | |
| **[Measuring the Arrow of Time: Identification, Estimation, and Inference for Directional Structure in Multivariate Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13431v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Many questions across the sciences take the same form: several coupled series are observed together, and the analyst wants to know not merely that they move together but which one moves first, and how strongly. This paper sets out a complete method built on one organising idea: the direction of a coupled system is exactly the part of its behaviour that changes when the record is played backwards. Tools built on contemporaneous covariance alone (correlation matrices, distance measures, spanning trees, undirected centralities, principal components) carry no information about direction: a reversible system and a circulating one can share identical covariance at every sampling of the same point-in-time record. Formally, direction is a circulation matrix carried by the lagged covariance. Its vanishing is exactly statistical time reversibility for linear systems, feature maps carry the characterisation to nonlinear ones, and under the Gaussian benchmark its magnitude is an entropy-production functional of the identified circulation, the quadratic component of the divergence per unit time between the forward and reversed records. Around this estimand we build a cross-fitted estimator removing first-order bias, delete-block jackknife standard errors, and a randomisation test exact under its stated block null, with a familywise correction and a nonlinear extension. A sampling theory says when the arrow is measurable at all, and a design layer separates transmission from the ordering of clocks. A laboratory of four systems with known answers compares the method with correlation networks, Granger causality, transfer entropy, and connectedness indices, reporting the failures of each when read as a measure of direction, including our own. Complete algorithms and worked examples in two languages make the paper the base reference for a series of applications.</details> | <details><summary>64 pa...</summary>64 pages, 6 figures. Base methods reference for a series of applications. JEL: C12, C32, C58, G15</details> |

## Trajectory
| **Title** | **Date** | **Abstract** | **Comment** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **[GAPL: Grounded Action-effect Policy Learning for LLM-Based Trajectory Planning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18254v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Trajectory planning for autonomous driving requires both high-level reasoning and precise low-level control. Large Language Models (LLMs) offer semantic-rich planning capabilities, however, their application is limited by hallucinated reasoning, poor grounding in environment dynamics, and limited numerical precision in control. We propose GAPL (Grounded Action-effect Policy Learning), a unified framework that integrates LLM-based effect estimation, simulation-based effect grounding, and policy optimization into a closed-loop system. GAPL consists of three modules: (1) an LLM-based Effect Evaluator for structured multi-dimensional action-effect estimation; (2) a Simulation-based Effect Grounder that predicts dynamics-consistent effects from simulator rollouts; and (3) an Effect-Aware Decision Maker that grounds LLM effect estimates against simulation via a distiller to guide Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO)-based policy learning. Experiments on four Highway-env scenarios demonstrate that GAPL consistently outperforms baselines, achieving average reductions of {0.76, 0.86, 2.00} in collision rate, average displacement error (ADE), and final displacement error (FDE), and an average reward gain of 1.44.</details> | <details><summary>11 pa...</summary>11 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables</details> |
| **[Classifying Directional Trajectories Near Criticality in the Three-State Majority-Vote Model with Deep Belief Networks and Bidirectional GRUs](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18235v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>In this work, we investigate whether the latent representations learned by a Deep Belief Network (DBN) and a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi-GRU) can discriminate among four dynamically distinct trajectory types in the three-state majority vote model (MV3): approach from disorder, approach from order, departure to disorder, and departure to order. The DBN, pre-trained in an unsupervised manner on static equilibrium samples via a Gaussian-Bernoulli Restricted Boltzmann Machine input layer and architecture $784 \to 4096 \to 225 \to 81$, encodes each lattice snapshot into an 81-dimensional latent vector. A t-SNE analysis of the DBN latent space reveals only partial separation of the four trajectory types, reflecting the fact that a model trained on static configurations cannot fully resolve directional temporal structure. A two-layer Bi-GRU classifier, trained on sequences of DBN-encoded snapshots of length $T = 50$, achieves near-perfect separation of all four trajectory types in its hidden state space, as confirmed by t-SNE visualization on both training and test sets. Furthermore, a sliding-window application of the trained Bi-GRU to continuous MV3 dynamics demonstrates its ability to sense the system's current dynamical regime in real-time. These results establish a principled hierarchical architecture for detecting and classifying critical transitions in agent-based opinion dynamics models.</details> | <details><summary>8 pag...</summary>8 pages, 6 figures, to be published in AIxSET 2026</details> |
| **[SIGMA: SHAP-Guided Implicit-Trajectory Generation for Metadata-Free LLM-Based AutoFE](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17948v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Recent research has leveraged Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance Automated Feature Engineering (AutoFE) through semantic descriptions and trajectory-based prompting. However, there exist two challenges that limit their applicability and scalability in long-horizon optimization: (1) semantic metadata is unavailable in many practical settings, and (2) trajectory accumulation increases the risk of exceeding the context window, while without it, the generation process can become unstable, leading to becoming stuck in the local optima and a high duplicate rate of generated features. To this end, we propose a SHAP-enhanced Implicit-trajectory Generation for Metadata-free AutoFE (SIGMA), a scalable constant-context optimization framework. SIGMA leverages SHAP values to provide task-aware signals for guiding group feature generation instead of semantic information. In addition, we adopt an EXposed-feature Implicit Trajectory (EXIT) approach, where the exposed features in the prompt implicitly represent the trajectory. Empirical results demonstrate that SIGMA achieves performance comparable to the state-of-the-art (SOTA) LLM baselines with a nearly constant prompt length. Notably, EXIT significantly reduces the duplicate ratio of generated features from 37.2% to 6.8%. At the same time, SIGMA matches traditional SOTA performance with only 5.4 features on average, demonstrating substantial efficiency gains in feature utilization.</details> | |
| **[ControlledShifts: Towards Standardizing Robustness Evaluation in Trajectory Prediction Under Distribution Shifts](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17882v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Trajectory prediction is central to safety in autonomous driving, yet learning-based predictors tend to degrade sharply when encountering scenarios poorly represented by their training data. Many methods attempt to mitigate distribution shift degradation through data-centric or test-time adaptation approaches; however, they are typically validated along fragmented axes of generalization, leaving the field without a standardized way to compare robustness across shifts a model may encounter. To address this, we introduce ControlledShifts, a framework and benchmark suite that systematically re-splits existing trajectory datasets into in-distribution (seen) and out-of-distribution (unseen) partitions, via a shared characterization-and-splitting formulation, in which a characterization function fixes the axis of variation a benchmark probes and a splitting function fixes how the tail of that axis is withheld. The suite comprises three benchmarks targeting key topological and behavioral distribution shifts. Furthermore, to aggregate multi-dimensional performance metrics across these benchmarks, we propose a unified robustness score that evaluates models along two complementary dimensions: prediction quality (relative performance gain) and prediction stability (performance preservation under shift). We showcase ControlledShifts by benchmarking prominent transformer-based architectures, exposing critical differences in how models of varying capacities handle latent relevance and environmental structure.</details> | <details><summary>8 pag...</summary>8 pages, 8 figures, 1 table</details> |
| **[VOLT: Vision and Language Trajectory Segmentation for Faster-than-Demonstration Policies](https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06323v3)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Humans often take longer to demonstrate a task than a robot would need to execute it. Rather than learning to replicate the demonstration at the same pace, many industrial and practical applications require robots to perform tasks as quickly as possible. In this paper, we investigate several hypotheses for learning policies that operate faster-than-demonstrations. Our experiments show that the most effective strategy is to downsample recorded demonstrations and train the robot's policy on this accelerated data. However, uniformly downsampling an entire trajectory can be problematic. Some parts of a task can be safely sped up (e.g., unconstrained motion), while others demand slower, more precise motion (e.g., object interactions or fine manipulation). To address this challenge, we introduce VOLT, a vision-and-language trajectory segmentation method that reasons over video demonstrations, and leverages contextual cues to determine when acceleration is appropriate and when careful precision is required. VOLT identifies segments where slow, deliberate motion is necessary, then selectively downsamples the remaining segments. The resulting reformatted trajectories can be used with standard imitation learning approaches, such as diffusion policies. Our results highlight that segmentation quality is critical---baseline methods often misidentify when acceleration is possible, leading to overly cautious or unreliable policies. Compared to state-of-the-art alternatives, VOLT allows robots to execute tasks faster while maintaining strong performance. See our project website: https://volt2026.github.io/VOLT2026</details> | |
| **[Estimating Consensus Epidemic Trajectories via a Constrained Power Fréchet Mean with Functional Registration](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.10069v2)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>In infectious disease modeling during the early phase of a pandemic, SEIR-type compartmental models are standard tools, and they require epidemiological parameters as inputs. Because these parameters are subject to uncertainty, different research groups often report different epidemic curves, and obtaining a representative curve that captures the characteristics of these trajectories is important for decision-making. However, simple pointwise summaries can attenuate epidemic peaks under temporal misalignment and generally do not preserve the dynamical structure of the underlying compartmental models. To address these limitations, we propose a method for summarizing multiple solutions to SEIR-type compartmental models on a functional space by computing a constrained power Fréchet mean with temporal shift registration. In our method, we regard the pairs of exposed and infectious compartments as objects in a Hilbert space, and the consensus curve is defined as the solution to a constrained optimization problem. Differential equation constraints and population constraints are incorporated in the optimization to preserve a partially mechanistic interpretation regarding the infectious compartment. We develop an implementable block-optimization algorithm based on basis function expansion. In simulation studies based on early COVID-19 parameter estimates, the proposed method produced consensus curves with a single epidemic peak, whereas pointwise summaries exhibited attenuated or multiple peaks. We further applied the method to six literature-derived parameter sets from early COVID-19 studies and obtained a representative trajectory with interpretable epidemiological parameters. The proposed approach provides a generalized trajectory-summarization method that includes mean- and median-type estimators and preserves mechanistic interpretability.</details> | |
| **[SEE: Structure-aware Exploring & Exploiting for Long-horizon GUI Agent Trajectory Synthesis](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.18046v2)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents powered by vision-language models hold promise for automating real-world mobile tasks. However, progress is limited by the lack of high-coverage, long-horizon interaction trajectories collected from element-rich and rapidly evolving apps. Existing pipelines often rely on costly human demonstrations or on-policy framework, which tends to over-sample common flows while missing rare transitions and complex multi-step procedures. To address this problem, we propose SEE, a two-stage data synthesis framework consisting of (i) an efficient exploration stage that builds an explicit UI transition graph over screens and elements, and (ii) a graph-based synthesis stage that composes diverse multi-step trajectories via planning and controlled sampling. This design yields reproducible and explainable data generation, while explicitly preventing spurious cycles and enabling long-horizon composition. Across multiple real-world apps, SEE produces trajectories with an average length of 14.8 steps while avoiding spurious loops, and agents fine-tuned on SEE achieve improved task success and generalization to unseen screens. We will publicly release our synthesis code and dataset.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted (Oral) by ACM International Conference on Multimedia 2026 (ACM MM 2026)</details> |
| **[Graphectory Viewer: A Tool for Process-Centric Analysis of Agentic Software Trajectories](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17195v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We present Graphectory Viewer, a web-based tool for interactive, process-centric analysis of software-agent trajectories. Building on the Graphectory representation introduced in our previous work, Graphectory Viewer transforms heterogeneous raw trajectories into phase-aware graphs that connect low-level execution details with higher-level behavioral structures. The tool supports trajectories from multiple agent frameworks and provides interactive graph construction; node-level inspection of thoughts, actions, and observations; search and filtering over large trajectory collections; and Sankey-style summaries of problem-solving phase transitions. These capabilities enable researchers and practitioners to inspect individual executions, identify recurring behavioral patterns, compare successful and failed runs, and analyze large trajectory corpora beyond final task outcomes. To support reproducibility and further research, we release Graphectory Viewer as an open-source artifact together with documentation, precomputed graphs, and the large-scale trajectory corpus.</details> | <details><summary>5 pag...</summary>5 pages, Short Paper; ASE 2026 Tool Track</details> |
| **[Geometric Reconstruction of Extrinsic Contact Trajectories using Tactile Sensing and Proprioception for Tool Manipulation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.22251v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Tactile sensing enables robots to perceive rich contact information at the grasp, supporting tasks such as object recognition, in-hand pose estimation, and slip detection. However, in many tool-mediated manipulation tasks, the interaction that determines task success occurs at the tool tip, away from the tactile sensor, making direct sensing of tool-environment contact difficult, particularly when the contact moves during interaction. In this work, we reconstruct the trajectory of extrinsic tool-tip contact using tactile sensing and robot proprioception. We formulate tool-tip trajectory reconstruction as a geometric inference problem under a single-point contact assumption. Our method first estimates the global tool-tip contact location from a calibration segment designed to approximate fixed-point behavior, and then reconstructs the full trajectory by composing relative tool motion estimated from tactile marker observations under continuous contact. Across n=51 trials with multiple trajectories, tools, wrist poses, and grasp configurations, the proposed pipeline achieves a trajectory RMSE of 8.59 +/- 2.41 mm in the world frame and a shape RMSE of 5.96 +/- 1.16 mm, while operating online at 14.00 +/- 4.11 Hz. Overall, the results show that extrinsic tool-tip trajectory geometry can be recovered consistently from grasp-level tactile sensing, with trajectory shape remaining stable across variations in tools, wrist poses, and grasp configurations.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted to the 2026 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS 2026). Updated to the final conference version</details> |
| **[Deep Thought Alignment: Trajectory-Level Latent Distillation for Video Reasoning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16316v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) for video reasoning have long been hindered by the high computational cost of processing vast amounts of visual information. This dilemma motivates the transfer of the reasoning capabilities of large models to smaller, more efficient ones. On-Policy Distillation (OPD) offers a promising solution by matching output-token distributions along student-generated trajectories. However, video reasoning often depends on evidence accumulated across multiple frames. In this context, output-level supervision only captures information expressed through token predictions and does not directly constrain the latent representations formed during reasoning. To address this limitation, we propose Latent-OPD, which augments OPD with trajectory-level latent distillation. Specifically, our method focuses on the position at the end of each trajectory, where hidden states effectively summarize the accumulated visual evidence and reasoning context. Furthermore, we introduce a progressive teacher-lookahead strategy, which aligns middle-to-late student layers with increasingly deeper teacher layers. Experiments on six video reasoning benchmarks show that Latent-OPD consistently outperforms output-only OPD. Notably, the improvements are particularly pronounced in scenarios with limited frames, long videos, or tasks requiring complex evidence aggregation. These results establish Latent-OPD as a highly effective approach to frame-efficient video reasoning.</details> | |
| **[Trajectory-Level Automatic Curriculum Learning for Legged Locomotion on Unstructured Terrain](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16164v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Training locomotion policies for complex unstructured terrain requires a curriculum to avoid early exploration failures. However, since unstructured terrain lacks explicit difficulty ordering for curriculum design, existing methods resort to heuristic curricula over parameterized terrains. This abstraction limits generalization, as policies can overadapt to near-fixed perceptual patterns. To address this, we propose \textbf{\ourname{}}, an \textbf{T}rajectory-level \textbf{A}utomatic \textbf{C}urriculum \textbf{L}earning framework that generates training tasks directly from unstructured terrain maps. At each curriculum update, the evaluator learns a difficulty function for the current policy that maps a given trajectory task to a difficulty score. The sampler then proposes new trajectories guided by the learned evaluator as the curriculum for the next policy update. This forms a closed loop in which the curriculum is iteratively matched to the evolving policy. Quantitative and qualitative experiments show that \ourname{} continuously provides effective curricula on unstructured terrain, improving trajectory success rate by $56.3\%$ over direct training without curriculum. Compared with handcrafted curriculum learning, our method improves success rate by $18.5\%$ on the hardest terrain tasks and by up to $39.74\%$ when evaluating traversal from diverse approach directions on the same obstacle type.</details> | |
| **[ScenarioCharacterization: A Modular Toolkit for Characterizing Safety across Trajectory Datasets](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16041v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We introduce ScenarioCharacterization, an open-source framework for automated, dataset-agnostic profiling of driving scenarios in trajectory datasets. Our framework is packaged as a modular, configuration-driven pipeline of three layers: a dataset adapter that maps custom datasets onto an open Scenario representation, a characterizer that performs feature extraction, behavior probing, and criticality scoring at scenario and agent levels, and an analysis layer for scenario visualization and feature, score, and probe analyses. Because the layers communicate only through Pydantic-validated schemas composed via configurations, a new dataset can easily plug in without rewriting the characterization and analysis stack. This technical report describes the design and APIs, shows example outputs on Waymo Open Motion, Argoverse2, and nuPlan, and discusses downstream uses of the approach. The framework is available at https://github.com/navarrs/ScenarioCharacterization.</details> | <details><summary>9 pag...</summary>9 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables</details> |
| **[TRACE: Trajectory Aware Reasoning for Multi-Turn Adversarial Conversation Evaluation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15594v1)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Multi-turn jailbreak attacks have emerged as a critical safety threat to LLMs, as harmful objectives are decomposed across a sequence of apparently benign turns to bypass guardrails. Existing defenses lack the reasoning capacity to identify evolving manipulation patterns, often trading helpfulness for safety by over-refusing benign requests related to sensitive topics. We introduce Trace, a multi-turn defense with trajectory-aware structured reasoning. Before generating each response, the model identifies manipulation cues from the trajectory, evaluates both the benign and adversarial interpretations of user intent, assigns a jailbreak score, and commits to an action: Allow, Caution, or Decline. We curate 4k multi-turn adversarial conversations from five attack frameworks, pair them with 2.4k benign dialogs, and 600 sensitive-but-benign conversations. We train Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct with SFT and GRPO under a multi-component reward that jointly optimizes helpfulness on benign prompts and robustness against jailbreak attempts. Across seven multi-turn attack benchmarks, Trace attains an average attack success rate (ASR) of 14.5% against 31.4% for the strongest baseline and 74.9% for the undefended target, while significantly raising the attacker effort required per successful jailbreak. Trace also balances usability and safety, achieving a 93.3% average compliance on over-refusal benchmarks.</details> | |
| **[Q-Regularized Generative Auto-Bidding: From Suboptimal Trajectories to Optimal Policies](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.02754v3)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>With the rapid development of e-commerce, auto-bidding has become a key asset in optimizing advertising performance under diverse advertiser environments. The current approaches focus on reinforcement learning (RL) and generative models. These efforts imitate offline historical behaviors by utilizing a complex structure with expensive hyperparameter tuning. The suboptimal trajectories further exacerbate the difficulty of policy learning. To address these challenges, we proposes QGA, a novel Q-value regularized Generative Auto-bidding method. In QGA, we propose to plug a Q-value regularization with double Q-learning strategy into the Decision Transformer backbone. This design enables joint optimization of policy imitation and action-value maximization, allowing the learned bidding policy to both leverage experience from the dataset and alleviate the adverse impact of the suboptimal trajectories. Furthermore, to safely explore the policy space beyond the data distribution, we propose a Q-value guided dual-exploration mechanism, in which the DT model is conditioned on multiple return-to-go targets and locally perturbed actions. This entire exploration process is dynamically guided by the aforementioned Q-value module, which provides principled evaluation for each candidate action. Experiments on public benchmarks and simulation environments demonstrate that QGA consistently achieves superior or highly competitive results compared to existing alternatives. Notably, in large-scale real-world A/B testing, QGA achieves a 3.27% increase in Ad GMV and a 2.49% improvement in Ad ROI.</details> | 11 pages, 5 figures |
| **[JoLT: Joint Latent Trajectories for Context-Guided High-Resolution Tiled Generation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15395v1)** | 2026-08-15 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Although text-to-image generative models produce impressive results, they struggle to generate densely detailed, high-resolution (HR) images. Current literature addresses this issue with a low-to-high-resolution approach. First, a low-resolution (LR) image is generated. Then, an upsampled version is generated using the LR image as an additional cue. In this paper, we present Joint Latent Trajectories (JoLT). To generate an image, JoLT uses two streams that jointly denoise LR and HR latent images at each sampling step. The LR latent controls the overall layout, while the HR latent controls the details. We interconnect both branches to jointly integrate their information. We extensively validate our method, demonstrating its advantages over competing baselines. The resulting images are not only richly detailed but also visually pleasing, opening new avenues for artistic creation.</details> | <details><summary>25 pa...</summary>25 pages, 10 figures, 7 tables. Accepted at the AI4VA Workshop at ECCV 2026. Project page: https://obvious-research.github.io/jolt/</details> |
| **[VTInstructor: Visual Trajectory Prompting for Navigation Instruction Generation in Continuous Environments](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15284v1)** | 2026-08-15 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Navigation instruction generation from ego-centric RGB video in continuous environments is an important yet challenging task for human-robot interaction and scalable dataset construction. Prior instruction generators assume discrete viewpoint graphs with panoramic observations, where trajectory structure is explicit; in continuous environments, however, the agent receives only a dense RGB stream, making trajectory cues difficult to recover. We propose VTInstructor, the first VLN instruction generation framework for continuous environments. Our key idea is to convert implicit trajectory geometry into explicit visual trajectory prompts: EDTC condenses long RGB trajectories into navigation-critical keyframes, VTP overlays path, turn, and goal cues onto these anchors, VTMod injects the resulting trajectory signals into the visual encoder, and VT-GRPO further calibrates this spatial injection during training, all without requiring a navigation graph, pre-built map, or scene reconstruction. On the challenging R2R-CE and RxR-CE Val Unseen benchmarks, VTInstructor sets a new state of the art across all standard NLG metrics, surpassing the strongest baseline by +0.357 CIDEr and +0.109 CIDEr, respectively. Beyond automatic metrics, VTInstructor-generated instructions raise a frozen follower's success rate to 63.3%, a +14.7 percentage-point gain over the best competing instruction source, and provide consistent data augmentation gains of +3 SR points on downstream navigation tasks.</details> | <details><summary>accep...</summary>accepted by ACM MM 2026</details> |
| **[PersonaDrive: Controllable Trajectory Prediction with Multi-Dimensional Driving Personas](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15230v1)** | 2026-08-15 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Although recent trajectory prediction and end-to-end autonomous driving methods improve robustness in urban environments, they still lack meaningful controllability. Existing benchmarks either provide no persona-conditioned annotations or support only a single urgency spectrum (i.e., emergency, normal, relaxed), which cannot distinguish personas that share the same urgency level but require different driving dynamics. To address this, we propose (i) the Persona-Conditioned Trajectory (PCT) dataset, which decomposes driving personas along two axes, Temporal Urgency and Ride Comfort, and combines three levels of each to form a grid of nine personas, each paired with natural-language descriptions and trajectories, and (ii) PersonaDrive, a framework that can learn driving personas from language and can generate persona-specific trajectories. PersonaDrive incorporates Persona-Conditioned Anchor Transform (PCAT), which hierarchically reshapes anchors along both axes, and Persona-Conditioned Multi-Modal Fusion (PCMF) for BEV-level persona fusion. Training is supervised by a Hierarchical Guide Loss enforcing axis-aligned physical orderings and an Axis-Decomposed Diversity Loss preventing diagonal mode collapse. Experimental results show that PersonaDrive consistently improves over the compared baselines across multi-dimensional scenarios. The code and PCT dataset are available at https://github.com/VisualAIKHU/PersonaDrive</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted to ECCV 2026</details> |
| **[Control-Informed Constraint Adaptation in Minimum-Time Trajectory Planning for Autonomous Racing](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14448v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Autonomous racecars operate at the limits of vehicle dynamics, where small control errors translate into safety-critical behavior and lost performance. Trajectory planners assume perfect tracking and remain blind to execution errors. To guarantee safety, trajectory planners therefore restrict themselves to conservative spatial margins, leaving usable track space untapped. To overcome these issues, we introduce a control-informed online trajectory planning framework that learns from its own execution errors. By measuring systematic tracking deviations during runtime, we dynamically adapt spatial track constraints and iteratively expand the free-space planning area. The planner remains time-optimal while compensating for accumulated execution errors. This method was analyzed in a high-fidelity closed-loop simulation environment with autonomous racecars. The results demonstrate that our approach reduces lap time by 1.8\,s without increasing computational burden, maintaining a median runtime of 25 ms. Our finding indicates that feeding control-induced deviations back into the planning layer unlocks performance previously inaccessible to modular architectures and enables autonomous vehicles to exploit track limits systematically.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at IEEE ITSC 2026</details> |
| **[Wrong but Useful: Trajectory Value Beyond Answer Correctness in Multi-Agent Messages](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14375v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Multi-agent reasoning systems often use agreement, confidence, or automated scores to decide which messages should shape a final answer. Such filtering assumes that a message likely to be correct is also worth keeping. Yet a wrong answer can contain a useful decomposition, constraint, or scientific principle. We test this distinction with Diverse Hypothesis Deliberation (DHD), a controlled measurement protocol that caches five independently generated messages and replays the same downstream solver, called the integrator, with each message available or hidden. The replay comparison measures a message's trajectory value: whether making the message available helps or harms subsequent reasoning. Across five mathematics and science benchmarks and two openly available model families, gpt-oss-120b and gemma-4-31B-it, wrong-helpful messages appear in every benchmark-model combination. Among wrong-answer messages that change final correctness, more than four in ten changes are helpful in each model. Controlled repeats show that the number of repeatable message effects is unlikely to arise from replay variation alone (p=0.0002). A focused intervention on repeatable wrong-helpful messages finds that the complete message works best, while retaining its reasoning preserves more success than retaining only its answer; the source of the complete-message advantage remains open. Within the same problem, repeated trajectory-value evidence also identifies a better keep-or-remove choice than answer correctness alone. Answer correctness is therefore informative but does not determine trajectory value. DHD measures this missing property and produces reusable labels for learning when agents should listen.</details> | <details><summary>24 pa...</summary>24 pages, 9 figures. Includes an appendix and an ancillary reproducibility artifact</details> |
| **[Non-Parametric Spatiotemporal Trajectory Prediction via State-Conditioned Transition Sampling](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14349v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We present a training-free method for multi-modal trajectory prediction that achieves comparable accuracy to a 57M-parameter transformer while requiring no GPU and zero learned parameters. The method builds a transition table of historical state-to-next-position pairs and retrieves neighbors using a product kernel over spatial proximity, bearing, speed, and temporal context. Two inference modes operate over this shared representation: diversity-penalized sampling produces trajectories covering distinct plausible routes, while beam search finds the highest-likelihood path. On the TrAISformer benchmark (Danish Maritime AIS), our method achieves competitive accuracy at full data availability and dramatically outperforms the transformer in data-scarce regimes---remaining stable down to 10% of training data where TrAISformer degrades catastrophically. This enables deployment in new geographic regions from an order of magnitude less historical data, and with no GPU training.</details> | |
| **[Trajectory-Induced Self-Calibration for Hidden-Target Localization Through an Unknown-Pose Range-Bearing Relay](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09464v2)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>This paper studies hidden-target localization from range-bearing packets reported by a relay beacon whose global position and yaw are unknown. The vehicle knows its own trajectory but never directly senses the target; the relay packet contains only local-frame range and bearing to the vehicle and to the hidden target. Unlike bearing-only network localization, relative-frame localization, and target-enclosing control, the target is neither directly observed in the vehicle frame nor treated as a node in a relative-sensing graph. The main result characterizes the minimal motion that removes the resulting calibration ambiguity: one vehicle pose leaves a continuous yaw/translation/target gauge, whereas two distinct vehicle-relative observations from one unknown-pose relay constructively determine relay yaw (modulo 2 pi), relay position, and the anchored target in the noiseless case. A local rank corollary, a shared-target multi-beacon extension, and a trajectory-spread conditioning lemma connect relay self-calibration to finite-window excitation and native range-bearing estimation. In Monte Carlo evaluation the estimator recovers the hidden target with 5.5 mm RMSE, five times below the 30 mm per-packet range noise and thirteen times more accurate than a naive EKF baseline; it converges to the same accuracy from 2 m target offsets and 2.4 rad yaw errors, and Huber weighting preserves millimeter accuracy under 10% outlier corruption that drops the unprotected estimator to a 0.10 success rate. Trajectory spread predicts estimator quality: the two weakly excited trajectories carry condition numbers above 100 with success rates of 0.82 and 0.70, while every well-excited trajectory attains full success.</details> | <details><summary>10 pa...</summary>10 pages, 4 figures, 9 tables</details> |
| **[Traj-LeWM: Path-Aware World-Model Planning via Latent Trajectory Cost](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14125v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>LeWM is a lightweight visual world model that learns latent dynamics end-to-end from pixels and ranks candidate action sequences by the distance between their predicted endpoints and the goal. However, LeWM has two limitations. First, during training, it learns local next-step transitions without evaluating complete trajectories relative to the task goal. Second, during planning, it ranks candidates solely by predicted endpoint distance. Because model predictions may differ from actual execution outcomes, the candidate whose predicted endpoint is closest to the goal may not perform best when executed in the environment. The evolution of the complete predicted trajectory can therefore provide complementary information beyond endpoint distance. To address these limitations, we propose Traj-LeWM, which retains LeWM's local-dynamics objective and endpoint score while introducing a goal-conditioned latent trajectory cost (LTC) that aggregates trajectory-level information as a complementary signal. During training, LTC-based trajectory-preference supervision complements next-step prediction in shaping the shared representation. During planning, LTC is combined with endpoint distance to incorporate intermediate-path information into candidate ranking. With joint endpoint-plus-LTC scoring, Traj-LeWM outperforms LeWM on Push-T, OGBench-Cube, Reacher, and Two-Room by $3$, $14$, $7$, and $7$ percentage points, respectively. Controlled experiments and ablations further verify the complementary roles of trajectory-level representation shaping and path-aware candidate ranking.</details> | |
| **[AlphaSeek: Trajectory-Level Self-Iterative Factor Mining Framework for Multi-Source Financial Data](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13913v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>With the rapid rise of large language models, LLM-driven quantitative factor mining has become an increasingly active research area. However, existing methods still suffer from subjective direction design, limited integration of up-to-date multi-source information, semantic drift, factor redundancy, and the absence of an end-to-end feedback loop from factor discovery to portfolio backtesting. To address these limitations, we propose AlphaSeek, an end-to-end factor mining framework for quantitative investment that integrates automated direction discovery, trajectory-level factor evolution mining and self-iterative portfolio optimization. AlphaSeek first collects and summarizes multi-source financial information to identify promising mining directions. It then performs trajectory-level factor mining by extending the optimization unit from a single factor expression to a complete research trajectory covering hypothesis generation, factor construction, validation, backtesting, and feedback. Based on this design, we introduce evolution operators - parallel direction expansion, mutation and crossover - to improve search diversity, refinement quality and factor robustness. Finally, AlphaSeek constructs a self-iterative factor portfolio, allowing newly discovered factors to interact with an existing state-of-the-art(SOTA) factor library under redundancy-aware constraints. Experiments on CSI300 show that AlphaSeek achieves the strongest overall strategy-level performance on CSI300 with ARR of 8.28%, IR of 1.29 and MDD of 6.28%, while remaining competitive on factor predictive metrics with IC of 0.0454, while factors mined on CSI300 also achieve strong time-series return performance on CSI500 than other models, suggesting promising cross-market transferability under a zero-shot setting.</details> | |
| **[Incision trajectory tracing for electrosurgical navigation by CNN-based knife contacting frames extraction method](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14749v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Background and Objective: Image-guided surgical navigation has been actively studied because of its advantage of identifying subsurface targets and critical structures, whereas it requires incision trajectories to update the preoperative three-dimensional model dynamically during the surgery. The novelty of this study is the thermal feature distinguishment of whether the electric tools contacting the tissue by Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and the extraction of the knife contacting frames, to form incision trajectories which can meet with the requirement during the surgery. Methods: This study firstly verified that CNN can classify the thermal images of electric knife and ultrasonic cutter operations separately, and can raise the accuracy of the incision trajectories derived from the connection of the thermal intensity centroid of the frames predicted by CNN as contacting. Results: Our results obtained by employing the electric knife not only reveal a remarkably high accuracy 97.2 % in CNNs identification, but also can achieve an error reduction as high as more than 2.5 times of the incision trajectory prediction as compared to those proceeded in the conventional method. Besides electric knife, the results obtained by employing another electric tool, ultrasonic cutter, reveal a high accuracy up to 93.7 %. Conclusion: In this study, we ensured the possibility of CNN in distinguishing electric tools contacting with the tissue, and confirmed that the proposed method has not only overcome the problem of missing trajectories which usually occurs in the convolutional long-short term memory method but also achieved a remarkable improvement of the accuracy with less limitation.</details> | |
| **[Trajectory Dynamics in Self-Supervised Learning Latent Space for Audio Deepfake Detection](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13817v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Human speech production is constrained by physiology, giving rise to characteristic temporal structure on acoustic signals. We hypothesise that these constraints manifest as structured trajectory dynamics in the latent space of Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) models, and that synthetic speech violates them detectably. To test this hypothesis, we train a causal Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) next-frame predictor on bonafide speech only (Stage 1), using the deepfake-specialised SSL backbone Wav2Vec2-Large-AntiDeepfake, and compare against a static global-average-pooling baseline using identical features, thus isolating the contribution of temporal modelling. A supervised Stage 2, which trains a Multi-Layer Perceptron on the frozen LSTM internal states using labelled data, is included to characterise the role of spoof supervision. Our system achieves competitive or state-of-the-art performance across six benchmarks: ASVspoof 2019/2021, Codecfake, In-the-Wild, MLAAD-EN, and Deepfake-Eval-2024, including best published EER on ASVspoof 2021 (0.75\%) and, notably, Stage 1 trained on bonafide speech only surpasses the published supervised baseline from the same backbone on DE2024 (30.35\%). On near-domain benchmarks, static and dynamic approaches perform comparably. On harder cross-corpus benchmarks with diverse synthesis methods, trajectory dynamics provide substantial gains, confirming that temporal physiological constraints carry detection signal beyond utterance-level statistics.</details> | 5 pages, 1 figure |
| **[TraVEL: Trajectory-Guided Video Embedding Learning for Driving-Video Retrieval](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13495v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Efficiently retrieving relevant clips from large-scale driving logs is essential for data curation, model development, and safety analysis. Structured and rule-based retrieval systems can explicitly target driving events, but typically require expert-defined rules, auxiliary data, and multi-stage perception pipelines. Multimodal embedding models offer a simpler and more efficient alternative by representing each video with a single searchable vector. However, general-purpose models often rely on shortcuts from static scene context and struggle to distinguish motion-centric events, such as turning left versus right or accelerating versus decelerating. In this work, we study how to adapt a general-purpose multimodal embedding model to driving-video retrieval. We first fine-tune Qwen3-VL-Embedding on paired clips and reasoning traces from nuReasoning using an InfoNCE objective. While this stage substantially improves overall retrieval, caption supervision alone remains insufficient for fine-grained motion understanding. We therefore introduce TraVEL (Trajectory-Guided Video Embedding Learning), a motion-aware fine-tuning framework that uses ego-trajectory similarity as a reward within Group Relative Policy Optimization. Trajectories serve only as privileged training supervision; retrieval still operates on single-vector video embeddings without ego poses, expert rules, or auxiliary perception outputs. We further construct a driving-video retrieval benchmark from nuReasoning. Experiments show that TraVEL improves motion-centric retrieval across model scales: relative to SFT, it raises longitudinal and lateral mAP by 9.8 and 4.7 points at 2B, with corresponding gains of 7.2 and 1.5 points at 8B. TraVEL thus combines physically grounded supervision with efficient embedding-based search.</details> | |
| **[Trajectory First: A Curriculum for Discovering Diverse Policies](https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.01568v4)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Being able to solve a task in diverse ways makes agents more robust to task variations and less prone to local optima. In this context, constrained diversity optimization has become a useful reinforcement learning (RL) framework for training a set of diverse agents in parallel. However, existing constrained-diversity RL methods often under-explore in complex tasks such as robot manipulation, resulting in limited behavioral diversity. We address this with a two-stage curriculum that introduces a spline-based trajectory prior as an inductive bias to produce diverse, high-reward behaviors in an initial stage, and then distills these behaviors into reactive, step-wise policies in a second stage. In our empirical evaluation, we provide novel insights into challenges of diversity-targeted training and show that our curriculum increases the diversity of learned skills while maintaining high task performance.</details> | <details><summary>Best ...</summary>Best paper at the Inductive Biases in Reinforcement Learning Workshop at RLC 2025</details> |
| **[Temporal GRPO: Beyond Trajectory-Level Credit in Vision-Language-Action Reinforcement Learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13026v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Outcome-driven reinforcement learning offers a scalable way to post-train vision-language-action (VLA) policies from sparse task-success feedback. In common GRPO-based VLA post-training, one rollout-level advantage is applied to every action in the trajectory. A rollout that completes several valid stages but fails later can therefore penalize the actions that produced its earlier progress. We call this trajectory-level credit aliasing. Temporal GRPO addresses this problem by constructing detectable task stages, aligning each rollout with stage-specific action intervals, and comparing only rollouts that have entered the same stage. The resulting stage advantages are applied to their corresponding intervals in a single policy update. On RoboTwin 2.0, Temporal GRPO improves task success and sample efficiency, with consistent gains across task horizons. Controlled updates on LIBERO-Long preserve shared prerequisite stages and concentrate improvement at the first stage where rollout outcomes diverge.</details> | |
| **[How LLMs Respond to Escalating Delusions: Four Longitudinal Trajectories of Model Behavior](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13017v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The widespread use of LLMs among psychiatric populations has raised concerns regarding their safety and potential iatrogenic impact in the context of AI psychosis. While growing literature conceptualizes AI psychosis and documents case studies, empirical evidence tracing AI-exacerbated psychotic processes remains scarce. We propose and test a longitudinal qualitative evaluation design, supported by automated metrics, to assess mainstream LLMs' potential to exacerbate psychosis. Fifteen widely used LLMs were prompted across 30 days using the same 30-message script, simulating progression from mild anomalous experiences to psychotic ideation. Four trained evaluators independently rated 449 model-days, assessing (1) recognition stage (from naive engagement to stabilized clinical framing), (2) interpretative confidence, and (3) intervention profile (from education to treatment recommendation). Two computational metrics-entrainment and modality-were devised to increase evaluation reliability. Direct recommendations to disengage from the LLM were flagged and re-coded via adjudication using a strict two-level definition. Across model generations and vendors, we identified four response trajectories: (1) premature medicalization and disengagement (Claude Haiku 4.5); (2) recognition without safeguarding, marked by LLM self-sufficiency in offering help (GPT Instant/Thinking); (3) delayed and unstable recognition, marked by late, non-progressive conceptualization (Claude Opus 3/4/4.1, Claude Haiku 3.5, GPT-4o, Gemini 3.1 Pro); and (4) delusion co-construction through active engagement with delusional content (Gemini 2.5 Pro/Flash, DeepSeek-V3, Claude Sonnet 4). Our findings indicate that LLMs' potential to exacerbate AI psychosis should be operationalized as a combination of recognition timing, stability, and intervention accuracy and evaluated longitudinally, focusing on temporal dynamics.</details> | |
| **[Beyond Retrieval: Query-Conditioned Reuse of Long-Horizon Agent Trajectories](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12847v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Retrieval can identify a past trajectory that may matter, yet it does not specify how an acting agent should use that trajectory after users, entities, constraints, or environment state have changed. We identify this post-retrieval reuse step as a distinct bottleneck for long-horizon trajectory memory and formulate an evaluation framework that holds candidate retrieval, target state, model, decoding, and tool budget fixed while varying the support delivered to the agent. We instantiate the framework with query-conditioned reuse (QCR), a deliberately simple target-bound note that records a reusable procedure, bindings to recover, applicability conditions, and verification requirements. QCR serves to test the reuse hypothesis rather than to claim a universally preferred memory format. Across 2,391 target instances in WebArena, WorkArena, and AppWorld, QCR reaches 62.3% average Success, 10.7 points above Full Trajectory, while using 48.9% fewer online tokens. Summary reranking selects a reusable memory for 94.8% of targets, placing end-task Success within 1.8 points of an oracle reusable selector. Analyses by trajectory length and source--target binding shift show that direct trajectory injection loses much of its utility as traces grow longer or source-specific values change, whereas target-bound support preserves a larger share of the measured gain. The resulting framework separates retrieval quality from the problem of turning retrieved experience into safe, useful support for a new task.</details> | |
| **[Trajectory Prediction via Bayesian Intention Inference under Unknown Goals and Kinematics](https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24928v2)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>This work introduces an adaptive Bayesian algorithm for real-time trajectory prediction via intention inference, where a target's intentions and motion characteristics are unknown and subject to change. The method concurrently estimates two critical variables: the target's current intention, modeled as a Markovian latent state, and an intention parameter that describes the target's adherence to a shortest-path policy. By integrating this joint update technique, the proposed algorithm maintains robustness against abrupt intention shifts in trajectory prediction and unknown motion dynamics. A sampling-based trajectory prediction mechanism then exploits these adaptive estimates to generate probabilistic forecasts with quantified uncertainty. We validate the algorithm through numerical experiments: Ablation studies of two cases, and a 500-trial Monte Carlo analysis; Hardware demonstrations on quadrotor and quadrupedal platforms. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms non-adaptive and partially adaptive methods. The method operates in real time around 547 Hz without requiring training or detailed prior knowledge of target behavior, showcasing its applicability in various robotic systems.</details> | |
| **[Global Convergence of an SQP Method for Contact-Implicit Trajectory Optimization](https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.01763v5)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Contact-Implicit Trajectory Optimization (CITO) is a powerful framework for planning motions of robots that interact with complex environments, but its convergence behavior remains difficult to characterize. Existing formulations either rely on off-the-shelf nonlinear programming solvers whose guarantees require constraint qualifications that are hard to verify for contact-rich systems, or require differentiable explicit dynamics maps that are difficult to formulate in the presence of impacts, changing contact modes, and geometric non-smoothness. This paper studies CITO for a broader class of constraint-rich dynamic systems formulated through implicit physics constraints. By exploiting maximal-coordinate structure, penalty relaxations of equality and inequality constraints, and finite-horizon Hamiltonian bounds, we prove global convergence in the numerical-optimization sense for a specific line-search Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) method with adaptive timestep refinement. Under the stated constraint-rich dynamic-system assumptions and fixed pre-horizon data satisfying the strict-interior predecessor condition, the method terminates finitely from any finite discretized optimized trajectory guess at an $ε$-feasible, force-parameterized stationary point---a unit-objective, penalty-induced force-parameterized Fritz--John certificate for smooth damping, weakening to a homogeneous force-parameterized Clarke--Fritz--John certificate whose objective multiplier may vanish under nonsmooth frictional contact.</details> | |
| **[4D-WAM: Infusing Spatiotemporal Awareness into World Action Models through Trajectory Fields](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08023v2)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Building on recent advances in world models, World Action Models (WAMs) jointly model video prediction and action generation. However, they typically represent videos in 2D pixel space, creating a representation gap with 3D space in which robotic actions are executed. Recent 3D approaches introduce 3D information, but fail to fully exploit the dynamics of 3D structures. In this work, we propose 4D-WAM, a model-agnostic training strategy that injects spatiotemporal knowledge from 3D trajectory fields into WAMs through representation alignment. To this end, we introduce two complementary objectives: 1) motion alignment, which aligns temporal feature variations across adjacent frames and encourages the model to build local 4D awareness during training, and 2) destination alignment, which guides the model to infer the final destination from the source frame by minimizing the gap between their attention-like similarity distributions. Together, these objectives provide both local motion supervision and long-horizon goal guidance, enabling WAMs to learn trajectory-level spatiotemporal representations. Extensive in-distribution and out-of-distribution experiments across different base models demonstrate the model's improvements in spatial understanding, execution precision, robustness, generalization, and versatility.</details> | |
| **[SynWeaver: Website-Prior Task and Trajectory Co-Synthesis for Web Agents](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12429v1)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Web agents often struggle to generalize to unseen websites because they lack website-specific supervision. Recent exploration-based data synthesis methods reduce manual annotation, but they still face two key limitations: they often fail to cover the full functionality of a website, and without sufficient website prior knowledge, they tend to propose hallucinated tasks, which in turn limits the diversity and efficiency of downstream trajectory synthesis. We present \textbf{SynWeaver}, a website-prior task-trajectory co-synthesis framework designed to address these challenges. SynWeaver first performs structured website exploration and constructs a website map that covers a broad set of functionally distinct page states and executable interactions on the target website. It then derives page-level and transition-level supervision from this map to train a UI-aware model with website-specific priors, enabling more grounded task proposals. Finally, SynWeaver performs collaborative task-trajectory synthesis, jointly updating the task and execution trajectory when they become inconsistent, and then verifies and repairs the collected results to produce executable, semantically aligned supervision. Experiments on WebArena and WebVoyager demonstrate that SynWeaver consistently outperforms strong synthesis baselines and yields more effective supervision for both in-domain and out-of-domain generalization.</details> | 31 pages, 9 figures |
| **[ExRole: From Team Trajectories to Executable Roles in Multi-Agent Language Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11949v1)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Roles provide an interpretable interface for organizing language-model agents, yet most multi-agent systems treat them as hand-written prompt labels disconnected from learned behavior and parameter updates. We argue that a useful role should instead be an executable control variable: it should summarize behavior predictive of future utility, guide subsequent interaction, and identify the trainable capacity responsible for that behavior. We introduce ExRole, a trajectory-to-role framework that learns future-aware role prototypes from prefix-local team traces, resolves them into readable instructions and token-aligned role markers, and optionally routes shared LoRA rank slots with turn-aligned credit. Across MuSiQue and 2WikiMultiHopQA, ExRole improves over single-agent search by 15.0/14.4 and 13.5/16.1 EM/F1 points, respectively. Against the strongest non-ExRole controls, the corresponding gains remain 11.5/11.6 and 7.7/9.7 points. Across both benchmarks, the controlled results consistently favor trajectory-induced role conditioning over role-free, manual, random, and shuffled alternatives. Role-Agent-Turn interventions further show that the induced roles capture transferable behavioral specialization beyond fixed agent identities or turn positions.</details> | |
| **[TC-Padé: Trajectory-Consistent Padé Approximation for Diffusion Acceleration](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.02943v2)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Despite achieving state-of-the-art generation quality, diffusion models are hindered by the substantial computational burden of their iterative sampling process. While feature caching techniques achieve effective acceleration at higher step counts (e.g., 50 steps), they exhibit critical limitations in the practical low-step regime of 20-30 steps. As the interval between steps increases, polynomial-based extrapolators like TaylorSeer suffer from error accumulation and trajectory drift. Meanwhile, conventional caching strategies often overlook the distinct dynamical properties of different denoising phases. To address these challenges, we propose Trajectory-Consistent Padé approximation, a feature prediction framework grounded in Padé approximation. By modeling feature evolution through rational functions, our approach captures asymptotic and transitional behaviors more accurately than Taylor-based methods. To enable stable and trajectory-consistent sampling under reduced step counts, TC-Padé incorporates (1) adaptive coefficient modulation that leverages historical cached residuals to detect subtle trajectory transitions, and (2) step-aware prediction strategies tailored to the distinct dynamics of early, mid, and late sampling stages. Extensive experiments on DiT-XL/2, FLUX.1-dev, and Wan2.1 across both image and video generation demonstrate the effectiveness of TC-Padé. For instance, TC-Padé achieves 2.88x acceleration on FLUX.1-dev and 1.72x on Wan2.1 while maintaining high quality across FID, CLIP, Aesthetic, and VBench-2.0 metrics, substantially outperforming existing feature caching methods.</details> | CVPR 2026 |
| **[ContactIPM: A Structure-Exploiting Interior-Point Solver for Contact-Implicit Trajectory Optimization](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11731v1)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Contact-implicit trajectory optimization avoids prescribing contact sequences, but yields mathematical programs with complementarity constraints (MPCCs) whose degeneracy challenges conventional primal--dual solvers. Existing contact-specific methods improve robustness to this degeneracy but do not leverage a stagewise optimal-control factorization and primal--dual consistency, while structure-exploiting optimal-control solvers are not designed for complementarity constraints. We show that these capabilities can be combined in a single primal--dual method. ContactIPM identifies complementary inequality pairs, embeds them through a barrier-coupled elastic interior relaxation, eliminates slack and dual variables stagewise, and solves the reduced Newton system using a Riccati recursion. A fixed multi-phase MPCC recovery schedule provides four continuation and restart attempts from naive initializations, while termination is gated by the unrelaxed physical complementarity residual. We compare ContactIPM with two contact-specific MPCC solvers, CRISP and IMPACT, using matched benchmark conditions and common post-solve acceptance criteria. On four fixed CRISP benchmark cases, ContactIPM is $2.17$--$8.87\times$ faster over 20 paired timing repetitions per case and achieves higher success on the Push Box and Push-T robustness suites. Against IMPACT, ContactIPM is $2.96\times$ faster on Push T and $4.91\times$ faster on Cart Transport, but $4.46\times$ slower on Push Box. In 50 closed-loop Push Box rollouts spanning model mismatch, measurement noise, initial-pose errors, and state resets,</details> | |
| **[Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11552v1)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for language models are typically evaluated on single-turn outputs, where uncertainty is attached to one generated answer. For LLM agents, however, the unit of observation is an interactive trajectory, where the model can ask clarifying questions, call tools, update state, and make intermediate decisions whose errors propagate to the final outcome. We study whether three common families of single-turn UQ methods transfer to this setting. Across five LLMs and four multi-turn tool-use datasets from BFCL-v4 and $τ^2$-bench, we evaluate white-box scorers based on action-token probabilities, black-box consistency scorers based on resampled trajectories, and reflexive scorers based on model self-assessment of the trajectory. We find that transfer is often useful but uneven. Token-probability scores are highly sensitive to the choice of aggregator used across turns, reflexive scores provide the strongest low-cost baseline in most evaluated settings, and black-box self-consistency is often the strongest UQ family, with trajectory-equivalence and action-set consistency typically ranking highest among its variants. These results suggest that UQ methods developed for single generations should be revalidated at the trajectory level, with careful attention to the consistency measurement, aggregator choice, and computational budget.</details> | |
| **[Forward Trajectory Steering for Hamilton-Jacobi Reachability Analysis](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11480v1)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) reachability provides a mathematically rigorous framework for safe control of dynamical systems, but its practical application is bottlenecked by the computational complexity of solving Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs variational inequality PDEs in high dimensions. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to classical mesh-based solvers, yet their performance is highly sensitive to the choice of collocation sampling. In order to learn accurate safety value functions, existing PINNs-based HJ reachability solvers must rely on complex training pipelines and auxiliary supervision. In this work, we propose STEER2REACH (S2R), a PINNs-based HJ reachability solver that requires minimal modification on top of standard PINNs training. S2R's key contribution is a lightweight, low-overhead adaptive collocation sampling distribution constructed by steering forward trajectories using a combination of the optimal control and disturbance signals induced by the current value function, with injected stochastic exploration noise. We demonstrate that despite its simplicity, S2R achieves competitive--and in some cases improved--performance on safety metrics while reducing relative L2 error across a range of reachability benchmarks compared with SoTA MPC-guided HJ reachability solvers, all without requiring multi-stage training or MPC-based supervision.</details> | IEEE CDC 2026 |
| **[Top-down Traffic Scenario Generation via Joint Initial-Goal Diffusion and Trajectory Infilling](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11407v1)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Robust traffic simulators are crucial for developing and testing autonomous vehicles to reduce the costly, labor-intensive real-world data collection process and the need for physical presence on the road. However, existing simulators require agents' initial states to generate trajectories, which limits scalability and diversity due to restrictions on the given initial states. While data-driven agent initialization has been widely studied, the generated initial states are not interpretable in terms of why the agents are initialized at those specific locations. Given known initial states, trajectory generation is also a challenging problem, as the model must learn the variability of the destination and how agents should reach it over time. In this paper, we propose TrafficDiffuser, a top-down traffic scenario generation framework that generates high-level traffic scenarios, defined by initial and goal state pairs, by jointly modeling them. The high-level scenario generation makes initial states better interpretable and reduces trajectory generation into as simple as an infilling problem. We demonstrate how the generated high-level traffic scenarios can be used, including constraining based on different trajectory modes and integrating them with existing trajectory generation models. We conduct extensive experiments on the Argoverse 2 motion prediction dataset to evaluate how well the generated outputs capture real-world distributions. In addition to generating goal states, TrafficDiffuser outperforms the next-best approach for agent initialization, reducing speed distribution distance by 55.3% and the off-road rate by 2.8%.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted for publication at the IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 2026</details> |
| **[OpenVisTool: An Open Recipe for Synthesizing Instructive Visual Tool-Use Trajectories](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08557v2)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Visual tool use has emerged as a fundamental capability for multimodal agents to actively acquire evidence beyond a fixed image encoding. The prevailing recipe learns this capability from teacher-generated trajectories filtered for answer correctness, implicitly assuming that every successful demonstration provides effective supervision. We argue this assumption is flawed: a strong teacher often reaches the correct answer without needing its tool calls, and imitating such trajectories teaches a student that tool calls accompany correct answers, not that tool observations ground them. We present OpenVisTool, an open framework for constructing instructive visual tool-use trajectories that provide effective supervision for tool learning. The key insight is that a trajectory should be retained only if its answer is correct (outcome validity) and its tool observations causally contribute to that answer (causal utility). The framework operates in three stages: difficulty screening to select queries that are not reliably answerable without tools, domain-specific trajectory synthesis to elicit coherent tool-use trajectories, and supervision verification to jointly test both conditions. Rather than encouraging models to imitate tool calls, the resulting supervision teaches when and how visual evidence should be acquired. Using this framework, we construct OpenVisTool-42K, a dataset spanning five visual reasoning domains, together with OpenVisTool-Bench, a benchmark covering the same domains. Across four backbones (4B-27B), fine-tuning on OpenVisTool-42K consistently improves visual tool-use performance and yields gains on two out-of-distribution benchmarks; the larger models approach leading closed-source systems. The evidence suggests that effective visual tool use is learned from causally grounded supervision rather than tool-calling patterns.</details> | |
| **[Tree-of-Ideas: Automated Research Ideation via Cross-Trajectory Reasoning over Scholarly Evolution](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10740v1)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Effective research ideation requires moving beyond a static understanding of prior work to trace how research problems and solutions evolve across the literature. Existing methods either treat papers as unstructured context or model scholarly evolution as isolated citation chains, overlooking interactions among research trajectories. We propose Tree-of-Ideas (ToI), a two-stage framework. EvoTrace reconstructs branching scholarly trajectories from citations, tracking evolving methods, resolved problems, and gaps. EvoAgent then reasons across trajectories to identify convergent problems and complementary solutions, generating grounded research ideas. Across six AI research topics, ToI achieves the highest score among automatic methods (6.27 vs. 5.36 for the strongest baseline on a 10-point scale), with strong Novelty (6.36) and Groundedness (7.00). Also, its score approaches that of human-paper references (6.29), demonstrating the value of cross-path evolutionary reasoning.</details> | |
| **[Trajectory-Driven Multi-Product Influence Maximization in Billboard Advertising](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.14737v2)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Billboard Advertising has emerged as an effective out-of-home advertising technique, where the goal is to select a limited number of slots and play advertisement content there, with the hope that it will be observed by many people and, effectively, a significant number of them will be influenced towards the brand. Given a trajectory and a billboard database and a positive integer $k$, how can we select $k$ highly influential slots to maximize influence? In this paper, we study a variant of this problem where a commercial house wants to make a promotion of multiple products, and there is an influence demand for each product. We have studied two variants of the problem. In the first variant, our goal is to select $k$ slots such that the respective influence demand of each product is satisfied. In the other variant of the problem, we are given with $\ell$ integers $k_1,k_2, \ldots, k_{\ell}$, the goal here is to search for $\ell$ many set of slots $S_1, S_2, \ldots, S_{\ell}$ such that for all $i \in [\ell]$, $|S_{i}| \leq k_i$ and for all $i \neq j$, $S_i \cap S_j=\emptyset$ and the influence demand of each of the products gets satisfied. We model the first variant of the problem as a multi-submodular cover problem and the second variant as its generalization. To solve the common-slot variant, we formulate the problem as a multi-submodular cover problem and design a bi-criteria approximation algorithm based on the continuous greedy framework and randomized rounding. For the disjoint-slot variant, we proposed a sampling-based approximation approach along with an efficient primal-dual greedy algorithm that enforces disjointness naturally. Extensive experiments with real-world trajectory and billboard datasets highlight the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed solution approaches.</details> | 34 Pages |
| **[Stream Forcing: Constructing Unified Training Trajectory for Robust Streaming Video Generation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10439v1)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Streaming video generation holds strong potential for world modeling, where future frames must be inferred online sequentially to form a continuous video stream. However, streaming video diffusion models introduce a fundamental train-inference mismatch: inference follows a specialized denoising order, whereas advanced training strategies typically require diverse noise-level configurations. To address this trade-off between train-inference consistency and training coverage, we reformulate the video diffusion sampling as a frame-indexed stochastic process over noise levels. Within this stochastic process space, we construct a continuous training trajectory along which the sampling schedule progressively evolves from independent sampling to inference-consistent sampling. We further introduce a joint calibration algorithm and a temporal correlative sampling algorithm to ensure trajectory smoothness and cross-frame correlation. Building on these designs, we propose Stream Forcing, a unified training framework for streaming video generation that balances training sufficiency and inference efficiency. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Stream Forcing significantly improves generation quality with a 36.6% FVD improvement on the UCF-101 benchmark. Furthermore, our method facilitates robust zero-shot extrapolation to long-horizon video generation with a 27.9% FVD improvement on the UCF-101 benchmark.</details> | 15 pages,6 figures |
| **[RankFormer: A Propose-then-Select Transformer for Multi-Agent Multimodal Trajectory Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07126v3)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Predicting traffic agent trajectories plays an important role in autonomous driving, traffic operations, transportation safety analysis, etc. Although many deep learning algorithms are devised to predict future agent trajectories, the trajectory prediction problem is still challenging due to the complexity of decision-making process, interactions with surrounding vehicles, and the existence of multiple possible intentions for the traveling agents even under similar scenarios. Most existing methods are limited by the requirement of graph structures (e.g., Graph Neural Network) or the requirement of manually labeled intentions. In this study, we propose a pure Transformer-based deep learning model for multi-modal trajectory prediction considering temporal dependencies and agent-agent spatial interactions. After encoding the historical trajectories, two parallel decoders are employed to generate trajectories and probabilities on separate decoder tracks. The model is evaluated on two real-world datasets, one highway dataset and the other pedestrian dataset with solid performance. One important insight is that following a ``propose-then-select'' strategy, the agent-agent spatial interactions are only considered for probability estimation instead of trajectory generation. In summary, the proposed model provides a potential direction to design more robust and effective multi-modal trajectory prediction models.</details> | 11 pages, 5 figures |
| **[TRACE-GS: On-Policy Trajectory Distillation with Privileged Geometric Conditioning for Sparse-View 3DGS Restoration](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10286v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We present TRACE-GS, an on-policy trajectory distillation framework that leverages privileged geometric conditioning at training time, thereby adapting a diffusion prior to sparse-view 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) restoration. Rather than pursuing increasingly sophisticated restoration architectures, we identify a more fundamental limitation shared by existing diffusion-based approaches: supervision at independently noised states does not cover those reached during inference. In sparse-view 3DGS, under-constrained geometry biases denoising from the outset, and the resulting deviations compound along the rollout. TRACE-GS instead performs on-policy trajectory distillation: a teacher conditioned on richer geometry from additional training views supplies targets along the sparse-view student's own rollout, aligning denoising directions and cross-view responses at each visited state. This training-only geometry places TRACE-GS in the learning using privileged information (LUPI) setting. At deployment, only the sparse-view student is retained, and its restored renderings serve as pseudo-observations for 3DGS refinement. To the best of our knowledge, TRACE-GS is the first to derive on-policy supervision from privileged geometry for sparse-view 3DGS restoration, achieving consistent gains and strong generalization across datasets and sparse-view settings.</details> | |
| **[CRHT: A Continuous Regression Hybrid Transformer for Vessel Trajectory Prediction with Online Cluster Sampling](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10256v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is critical for maritime safety and anomaly detection, yet existing models often struggle with geographic bias and navigational realism. We propose the Continuous Regression Hybrid Transformer (CRHT), a deep learning framework designed to forecast vessel motion using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. To mitigate spatial data imbalance, we introduce an online K-means cluster sampling strategy that ensures diverse exposure to rare maneuvers during training. Our hybrid architecture integrates 1D convolutional layers for local kinematic feature extraction with a multi-head attention mechanism for global temporal context. CRHT demonstrates superior performance in short-term forecasting, achieving the lowest errors at the 1-hour horizon. The results demonstrate that while discrete models provide high navigational stability over long horizons, CRHT offers an optimal balance of precision and maneuver tracking for real-time maritime surveillance.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at IGARSS 2026</details> |
| **[STCAD: Scalable Trajectory Clustering and Anomaly Detection on Terabyte-Scale AIS Data](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10249v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We present a scalable framework for unsupervised clustering of maritime trajectories derived from terabyte-scale Automatic Identification System (AIS) archives. Variable-length trajectories are encoded with a custom BERT-based model trained via masked token modeling and clustered using CURE hierarchical clustering, producing physically interpretable trajectory groups without requiring a predefined number of clusters. An intrinsic unsupervised anomaly detection method based on reconstruction loss and clustering noise assignment identifies irregular navigation patterns. The framework is demonstrated on a national-scale AIS dataset comprising billions of messages spanning one year, yielding stable trajectory clusters and a clear separation between nominal and anomalous vessel behavior.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at IGARSS 2026</details> |
| **[SHE: Trajectory-driven Safety Harness Evolution for LLM Agents](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09885v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The safety of large language model (LLM) agents depends not only on model weights but also on the agent harness that manages context, memory, tools, permissions, and runtime control. Existing safety mechanisms often treat the harness as a fixed deployment artifact, limiting their ability to evolve with emerging risks. Moreover, coupled functions across harness components obscure safety responsibility attribution, making localized evolution difficult. We propose Safety Harness Evolution (SHE), a framework that learns evolving safe boundaries from rollout trajectories. SHE decomposes the harness into four artifacts with explicit safety responsibilities, including the System Prompt, Rule Bank, Safety Memory, and Tool Policy, defining clear functional boundaries for localized evolution. Based on this decomposition, SHE introduces an attribution-guided evolution loop that converts trajectory failures into structured diagnoses, learns artifact-specific boundary refinements, and selects evolved harnesses through safety-utility validation. Experiments on Agent-SafetyBench demonstrate that SHE effectively enhances safety through harness evolution, achieving a 3.1x ASR reduction compared with static SafeHarness, while also improving benign utility. The evolved harness further generalizes to unseen risks on the held-out AgentHarm benchmark and transfers across agent models without additional evolution.</details> | <details><summary>Proje...</summary>Project: https://github.com/RainbowQTT/SHE</details> |
| **[Entanglement-Free Trajectory Planning for Tethered Mobile Robots with a Slack Tether](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09860v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>In motion planning algorithms for tethered mobile robots, the entanglement state of the tether is a critical aspect to consider during the planning phase. This is particularly important in case of a slack tether, where the shape of the tether is not determined solely by the geometry of the environment and the location of the obstacles, but also by the dynamics of the tether, by the trajectory followed by the robot, and possibly by exogenous forces. In this scenario, preventing entanglement requires planning a robot trajectory that accounts for the entanglement definition and for the dynamics of the robot and of the tether. In this work, we propose a motion planning algorithm for tethered mobile robots with a slack tether that computes dynamically feasible entanglement-free trajectories to navigate through an environment with static obstacles. By considering the entanglement state during all the stages of the planning pipeline, we are able to compute safer trajectories that avoid entanglement during the motion of the robot. We achieve this through a three-step pipeline, which includes (i) the construction of a topological model of the entanglement-free configuration space of the tethered robot, (ii) the generation of a set of candidate paths using this model, and (iii) the computation of a dynamically feasible entanglement-free trajectory by solving a homotopy-constrained trajectory generation problem. The resulting trajectory can then be executed to lead the robot to its target location, while maintaining the tether in an entanglement-free configuration. We demonstrate the benefits of this algorithm in simulations, where we show how the planning algorithm avoids violations of the entanglement constraints, resulting in safer and more reliable trajectories.</details> | 19 pages, 13 figures |
| **[FlowGRN: Scalable and Dropout-Robust Gene Regulatory Network Inference via Flow Matching-Based Trajectory Reconstruction (Technical Report)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09798v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Inferring gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data offers insights into cellular behavior, but is complicated by the lack of temporal information and the prevalence of dropout noise. To address these challenges, we present FlowGRN, a method that integrates conditional flow matching and score matching for robust trajectory reconstruction with dynGENIE3 for scalable GRN inference. FlowGRN incorporates a novel cell similarity measure that is resilient to dropout effects in high-dimensional scRNA-seq data. Evaluation on the BEELINE benchmark demonstrates that FlowGRN achieves state-of-the-art performance on both synthetic and experimental datasets. Ablation studies validate the importance of both the dropout-robust similarity measure and the trajectory reconstruction step, highlighting FlowGRN's ability to accurately model dynamic regulatory relationships.</details> | <details><summary>26 pa...</summary>26 pages, 9 figures, an extension of our publication at the ACM BCB 2025 conference</details> |
| **[FinTrace: Holistic Trajectory-Level Evaluation of LLM Tool Calling for Long-Horizon Financial Tasks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.10015v3)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Recent studies demonstrate that tool-calling capability enables large language models (LLMs) to interact with external environments for long-horizon financial tasks. While existing benchmarks have begun evaluating financial tool calling, they focus on limited scenarios and rely on call-level metrics that fail to capture trajectory-level reasoning quality. To address this gap, we introduce FinTrace, a benchmark comprising 800 expert-annotated trajectories spanning 34 real-world financial task categories across multiple difficulty levels. FinTrace employs a rubric-based evaluation protocol with nine metrics organized along four axes -- action correctness, execution efficiency, process quality, and output quality -- enabling fine-grained assessment of LLM tool-calling behavior. Our evaluation of 13 LLMs reveals that while frontier models achieve strong tool selection, all models struggle with information utilization and final answer quality, exposing a critical gap between invoking the right tools and reasoning effectively over their outputs. To move beyond diagnosis, we construct FinTrace-Training, the first trajectory-level preference dataset for financial tool-calling, containing 8,196 curated trajectories with tool-augmented contexts and preference pairs. We fine-tune Qwen-3-8B/32B using supervised fine-tuning followed by direct preference optimization (DPO) and show that training on FinTrace-Training consistently improves intermediate reasoning metrics, with DPO more effectively suppressing failure modes. However, end-to-end answer quality remains a bottleneck, indicating that trajectory-level improvements do not yet fully propagate to final output quality.</details> | |
| **[Satellite Trajectory Optimization via Proximal Policy Optimization for Space Debris Avoidance](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09628v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Collision avoidance systems are commonly used to avoid fragmentation events occurring in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and Geosynchronous Equatorial Orbit (GEO). However, these events have been growing in frequency as orbital congestion worsens with the launch of megaconstellations. Consequently, conjunction alerts and collision risks are becoming increasingly common. Current practices, which are commonly manual or rule-based, have difficulty scaling to these worsening dynamic environments. To address this intensifying situation, we propose a reinforcement-learning policy for autonomous collision avoidance, trained via Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) along with an open-source, high-fidelity astrodynamics simulator for training and evaluation. In 1,000 deterministic GEO episodes, our agent achieves a 97.5% collision avoidance success rate, outperforming traditional controllers such as a rule-based baseline (20.7% success) and an impulsive delta-v planner baseline (27.5% success). To achieve these results, we designed a simulator to train and evaluate our agent, using real-world and simulated debris. We simulate Newtonian two-body dynamics using Sun/Moon third-body perturbations, fuel-dependent thrust, and configurable debris fields. The agent is trained with curriculum learning and shaped rewards oriented toward encouraging survival, adequate projected miss distance, and delta-v conservation. Finally, our evaluation consisted of a fully deterministic pipeline, including shared seeds, per-episode logs, and telemetry exports. Our work is a publicly available framework at https://purl.org/sat-trajectory-avoidance</details> | <details><summary>18 pa...</summary>18 pages, 16 figures. Published in IEEE Access, vol. 14, pp. 18138-18154, 2026</details> |
| **[Conditional Regime Analog Forecasting with Trajectories: A Nonparametric Framework for Multivariate Probabilistic](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09534v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We propose Conditional Regime Analog Forecasting with Trajectories (CRAFT), a nonparametric framework for multivariate probabilistic time-series prediction. The method constructs paired backward and forward trajectory profiles from cumulative multi-horizon returns, learns recurrent low-dimensional regime labels in both spaces using singular value decomposition, change-point segmentation, and segment clustering, and estimates a backward-to-forward conditional regime correspondence. Forecast distributions are obtained by sampling historically realized future trajectory profiles according to a composite compatibility score that combines future-regime correspondence with similarity to the current backward trajectory profile. Unlike parametric vector autoregressions or Gaussian state-space models, CRAFT preserves empirical cross-sectional and multi-horizon dependence by resampling complete future paths. We describe the estimator, its diagnostics, and a reproducible simulation benchmark comparing CRAFT with direct analog resampling, SVD analogs, unconditional bootstrap, OLS VAR bootstrap, and random-forest forecasts.</details> | |
| **[MeanSR: Restoration Trajectory Learning for One-Step Perceptual Super-Resolution](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09405v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Diffusion-based super-resolution (SR) achieves strong perceptual quality but requires costly iterative denoising. Existing one-step distillation methods reduce inference time but depend on expensive pretrained teachers, whereas CTMSR avoids distillation through PF-ODE consistency training yet does not explicitly model the restoration dynamics from low-resolution (LR) inputs to high-resolution (HR) images. We propose MeanSR, a one-step perceptual SR method that learns an LR-conditioned average velocity field to directly capture the finite-time transition from degraded or noisy inputs to plausible HR outputs. We further reformulate distribution trajectory matching for average-velocity generation and introduce a Stage-Aware Temporal Sampling strategy to improve trajectory learning. Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that MeanSR outperforms CTMSR on CLIPIQA, MUSIQ, and MANIQA while substantially reducing FLOPs and inference latency. MeanSR also reconstructs sharper structures and more realistic textures with fewer perceptual artifacts.</details> | <details><summary>7 pag...</summary>7 pages, 8 figures. Submitted to AAAI 2027</details> |
| **[RL-Native Distillation: Exploiting Scored Trajectories for Few-Step Image Generation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09226v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Efficient text-to-image generation requires both reinforcement-learning (RL)-based reward alignment and few-step distillation, yet these procedures are typically performed sequentially, increasing training cost and risking the loss of reward gains during compression. We instead take an RL-native perspective: diffusion RL already generates reward-scored finite-step trajectories, whose intermediate states provide a natural source of distillation supervision rather than a disposable byproduct of sampling. Based on this insight, we propose REST (Reward-Enhanced Scored-Trajectory Distillation), a single-stage RL-distillation co-training framework that attaches a decoupled student to an arbitrary RL teacher. The student learns segment-wise from the teacher's evolving rollout trajectories while leaving the original teacher optimization unchanged. To prevent uniform imitation from preserving undesirable low-reward behaviors, we further introduce Advantage-Modulated Distillation (AMD), which transforms rollout advantages into signed weights over a base distillation loss. AMD strengthens supervision from preferred trajectories and mildly repels the student from low-reward ones. The resulting framework is lightweight and plug-and-play, requires no extra image rollouts, no separate distillation dataset, and no adversarial training. Experiments on compositional generation, visual text rendering, and human-preference alignment show that REST enables few-step CFG-free inference that matches or surpasses its 40-step RL teacher, with an overall additional training cost below 25% over pure RL. REST improves DrawBench PickScore over RTDMD by 0.82 while requiring only one-fifth of the training iterations.</details> | |
| **[AutoRefine: Compiling Trajectories into Validated Typed Agent Artifacts](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.22758v2)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Large language model agents repeatedly encounter related tasks, yet systems that learn from trajectories commit every lesson to one predefined artifact form. A local constraint, a reusable procedure, and a delegated objective require different amounts of runtime ownership, so one form either under-specifies the correction or wraps it in execution machinery it does not need. We present AutoRefine, which treats trajectory learning as typed artifact compilation. It contrasts failed against successful trajectories to derive a type-neutral, evidence-linked intervention specification, then compiles that specification into the first Rule, Skill, or bounded Subagent that closes it under a runtime-relative ownership order: the selected schema must own every specified observation, state variable, dependent decision, and completion condition. Validation is stated in the same terms: a type-specific contract gate tests whether the generated object realizes its declared boundary, and a replay gate admits it only when it improves the correction cases linked to its source failures without regression on preservation cases. With GPT-5.6-terra as the shared backbone, AutoRefine records the highest success on ALFWorld, ScienceWorld, TravelPlanner, and SpreadsheetBench, and ties the best result on SkillCraft; on TravelPlanner it reaches 80.56% success against 50.0% for the strongest baseline. Removing boundary closure or replay validation costs 15.00 and 16.11 percentage points, the two largest losses among our construction and admission policies. In a longitudinal TravelPlanner stream, the repository holds 89--91% held-out success after 60 learning tasks with no net loss on previously solved tasks, and frozen repositories improve all 25 evaluated source--target pairs, more within a domain (14.20 points on average) than across domains (6.99).</details> | <details><summary>7 pag...</summary>7 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables</details> |
| **[TRACE: TRajectory Attribution for Automated Context Engineering](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09153v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Production AI agents fail when their context sources -- system prompts, knowledge bases, tool descriptions, and procedural skills -- contain errors or gaps. Current maintenance relies on manual log review and ad-hoc debugging, creating a scalability bottleneck as interaction volume grows. We present TRACE (TRajectory Attribution for Automated Context Engineering), an automated feedback loop that mines historical agent trajectories to diagnose and remediate context failures. Our key insight is that trajectories are rich with implicit dissatisfaction signals -- user corrections, rephrasing, abandonment cues -- that reveal precisely where context sources failed, without explicit feedback collection. Unlike model fine-tuning, TRACE operates on the context layer, enabling rapid iteration without retraining. We make four contributions: (1) a trajectory mining framework that systematically extracts diagnostic information from historical agent executions; (2) multi-component causal attribution that extends textual gradients from monolithic prompt optimization to heterogeneous context sources (skills, knowledge bases, tools, prompts); (3) exploratory verification, where agents actively read context sources to distinguish content gaps requiring CREATE from stale content requiring UPDATE, achieving 96% operation accuracy; and (4) a reusable simulation methodology and verifiable benchmark addressing the absence of open datasets for context debugging, with a six-category fault taxonomy, ground truth annotations, and a cross-layer verification protocol. On 60 dissatisfaction traces spanning three complexity tiers (up to 16 execution nodes), TRACE achieves 72.7% root cause attribution and 82% end-to-end fix effectiveness, showing that over 80% of context-layer failures can be automatically diagnosed and remediated by mining historical trajectories, an overlooked resource in production systems.</details> | <details><summary>21 pa...</summary>21 pages, 5 figures, 11 tables</details> |
| **[Trajectory Divergence Horizon Decision for Reliable Dual-Arm Surgical Subtask Manipulation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09125v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Surgical robotic systems are increasingly being adopted as clinical workload rises, motivating autonomous solutions for repetitive manipulation subtasks. Learning-based controllers improve generalization compared with rule-based and analytic approaches, but most are trained for individual tasks and remain difficult to reuse across procedures. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models provide a unified framework that integrates visual perception, language grounding, and action generation, offering a promising path toward more composable surgical autonomy. However, existing VLA policies rely on fixed-length open-loop action sequences, where changing scene conditions can lead to accumulated errors and potential risks in surgical manipulation. To mitigate this issue, we formulate surgical VLA deployment as an adaptive execution-horizon decision problem and propose Trajectory Divergence Horizon Decision (TDHD), a test-time mechanism that estimates step-wise action reliability by measuring the divergence between two flow-matching-generated trajectories under small noise perturbations and truncates execution using a dual-threshold rule to trigger timely replanning. We further establish a real-world da Vinci-like dual-arm benchmark with synchronized multi-view perception and language instructions, and collect 600 teleoperated demonstrations across needle (reach, pick, regrasp) and tissue (reach, lift, resection) manipulation suites. On real hardware with 20 trials per task setting, TDHD consistently improves performance over the latest VLA baselines: success increases from 55\% to 60\% for needle manipulation and from 55\% to 80\% for tissue manipulation, with the largest gains observed in the final manipulation stages. These results highlight the importance of adaptive execution control for reliable deployment of VLA models in surgical robotic manipulation.</details> | 8 pages, 3 figures |
| **[Demonstrating TOFFEE: A Learned System for Synthesizing Data Agent Trajectories at Scale](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.06233v3)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>LLM-powered data agents are playing an increasingly important role in data-driven decision making. However, existing data agents struggle to generalize to unseen data environments and analytical workflows, especially in heterogeneous enterprise settings. This creates a growing need for synthesizing high-quality data agent trajectories that capture complex analytical workflows for given data environments. Such trajectories support two key downstream uses: they can serve as supervised finetuning (SFT) data that adapts data agent models to the target domain, and as in-context learning (ICL) demonstrations to guide general-purpose LLMs in unfamiliar data environments. Thus, we introduce TOFFEE, a system for synthesizing high-quality data agent trajectories from given data environments via Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with adaptive model selection and cross-task prefix reuse. We show that TOFFEE can effectively generate scalable trajectory data for complex analytical tasks across heterogeneous environments. In this demonstration, we present the system framework of TOFFEE, including its task pool construction, trajectory explorer, and learned cost model. We also introduce the web interface of TOFFEE and its workflow, and demonstrate two end-to-end scenarios: trajectory synthesis for data agent finetuning, and demonstration-augmented data agent reasoning.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted to VLDB 2026</details> |
| **[Bayesian ACCESS for Understanding Latent Epidemic Trajectories from Publicly Released Suppressed Data: Application to U.S. Opioid-related Overdose Mortality](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09103v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Publicly released health statistics play a central role in characterizing temporal trends and identifying structural changes in population health. However, disclosure limitation through suppression of small cell counts, as implemented in systems such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER), produces partially observed count data that complicate statistical inference. These challenges are particularly acute for rare outcomes and subgroup analyses, where suppression is widespread and varies across geographic regions, demographic populations, and time. We propose Bayesian ACCESS (Autoregressive Change-point and Clustering Estimation for Suppressed Count Series), a Bayesian hierarchical framework for inference on latent epidemic trajectories and their structural changes from disclosure-limited health statistics. The proposed model directly represents suppressed count data through a suppression-aware observation model, jointly infers multiple temporal change points and latent trajectories, and borrows information across related geographic and demographic populations through Bayesian nonparametric clustering while preserving meaningful heterogeneity. We apply Bayesian ACCESS to opioid-related overdose mortality data from CDC WONDER for U.S. states from 1999 to 2024. The analysis identifies distinct subgroup-specific epidemic trajectories and structural changes that would be difficult to characterize using publicly released health statistics without explicitly accounting for data suppression.</details> | |
| **[Optimizing Trajectory-Trees in Belief Space: An Application from Model Predictive Control to Task and Motion Planning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.01860v2)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>This paper explores the benefits of computing arborescent trajectories (trajectory-trees) instead of commonly used sequential trajectories for partially observable robotic planning problems. In such environments, a robot infers knowledge from observations, and the optimal course of action depends on these observations. Trajectory-trees, optimized in belief space, naturally capture this dependency by branching where the belief state is expected to evolve into multiple distinct scenarios, such as upon receiving an observation. Unlike sequential trajectories, which model a single forward evolution of the system, trajectory-trees capture multiple possible contingencies. First, we focus on Model Predictive Control (MPC) and demonstrate the benefits of planning tree-like trajectories. We formulate the control problem as the optimization of a tree with a single branching (PO-MPC). This improves performance by reducing control costs through more informed planning. To satisfy the real-time constraints of MPC, we develop an optimization algorithm called Distributed Augmented Lagrangian (D-AuLa), which leverages the decomposability of the PO-MPC formulation to parallelize and accelerate the optimization. We apply the method to both linear and non-linear MPC problems using autonomous driving examples. Second, we address Task And Motion Planning (TAMP), and introduce a planner (PO-LGP) reasoning on decision trees at task level, and trajectory-trees at motion-planning level. This approach builds upon the Logic-Geometric-Programming Framework (LGP) and extends it to partially observable problems. The experiments show the method's applicability to problems with a small belief state size, and scales to larger problems by optimizing explorative policies, which are used as macro-actions in an overarching task plan.</details> | 42 pages |
| **[Learning from Consensus and Disagreement: Unsupervised On-Policy Self-Distillation with Minority-Trajectory Contrast](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08764v1)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>On-policy self-distillation improves language-model reasoning by querying a teacher on states actually visited by the student. Recent methods create a powerful information asymmetry by exposing the teacher to privileged context, yet they fundamentally rely on external supervision---such as gold solutions or verifiers---to construct this advantage. We introduce CoDA (Consensus and Disagreement Alignment), a fully unsupervised framework that creates reliable privileged information entirely from the latent uncertainty structure of a model's own unlabeled rollouts. CoDA extracts two complementary signals. In the positive branch, answer-level consensus identifies a stable reasoning mode, which conditions a frozen self-teacher to provide dense distributional guidance on fresh student trajectories. However, because agreement does not guarantee correctness, positive-only distillation risks amplifying correlated errors into a false consensus. To break this harmful feedback loop, CoDA incorporates a negative branch that exploits disagreement: minority trajectories are treated as unstable alternatives and gently penalized via a reference-anchored, KTO-style calibration objective. This unpaired binary feedback provides robust regularization without requiring the strong assumption that the consensus is the absolute ground truth. Empirical evaluations on competition-level mathematical benchmarks demonstrate that CoDA significantly improves reasoning, outperforming self-generated baselines and effectively stabilizing training against erroneous consensus.</details> | |
| **[PAST: Privileged Adaptation from Complete Student Trajectories for On-Policy Self-Distillation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08726v1)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) uses a privileged teacher to supervise a reasoning model on prefixes sampled from its own rollouts. Yet each rollout also reveals how the student's response unfolds and whether it succeeds, student-specific hindsight that standard OPSD does not use to form the teacher. We introduce Privileged Adaptation from Student Trajectories (PAST), which treats each completed student trajectory as additional privileged information for the OPSD teacher while leaving the student's distillation prefixes unchanged. PAST preserves the student's next-token distribution on correct trajectories and uses failed trajectories to adapt the teacher toward verified success under student-proximity regularization. We characterize what such a trajectory-conditioned teacher can transfer to a prefix-only student. Forward-KL distillation projects the teacher distributions to their conditional arithmetic mean given the prefix. This projection separates trajectory-specific variation that remains privileged from the mean policy shift available to the student. For correct trajectories, the unclipped population objective also has the frozen student as an ideal distributional fixed point. Across three mathematical reasoning benchmarks, PAST improves the Avg@12 macro average over Vanilla OPSD by 5.6 percentage points. A $2\times2$ factorial study shows gains from both complete-trajectory access and teacher adaptation, while trajectory removal and shuffling confirm that the adapted teacher uses the matching hindsight context.</details> | |
| **[Hermite Curves as Trajectory Priors for Vision-Language-Action Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.01265v2)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Despite recent progress in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models for robotic manipulation, the action chunk remains a weakly structured interface. Existing work typically flatten each chunk into per-timestep controls, relying on implicit data learning that manifests as jagged motion and boundary discontinuities during physical execution. To address these limitations, we introduce Hermite trajectory priors, parameterizing the chunk trajectory as a piecewise cubic Hermite curve defined by endpoint positions and velocities to explicitly enforce smoothness and continuity. We instantiate this fixed operator across discrete autoregressive and continuous generative paradigms via three variants: (1) Hermite Tokens, which predict quantized boundary variables autoregressively; (2) Hermite Scaffold, which decomposes clean actions into a base scaffold and residuals; and (3) Hermite Regularization, which applies the prior strictly as an auxiliary training objective. Across simulation benchmarks and real-robot platforms, Hermite Regularization achieves superior performance among these three variants, improving π0.5 baseline success rates from 95.9% to 98.7% on LIBERO, 85.7% to 90.9% on LIBERO-plus, and 63.4% to 90.0% across four real-robot tasks without additional inference overhead. Trajectory analyses reveal that explicitly structuring trajectory priors serves most effectively as a learning inductive bias rather than a runtime constraint.</details> | <details><summary>Proje...</summary>Project page is available at https://aopolin-lv.github.io/Hermite/</details> |
| **[Multi-Relational Knowledge Graph Enhanced Embedding for Trajectory-User Linking](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08646v1)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Trajectory-User Linking (TUL) aims to identify the owner of an anonymous trajectory from a set of candidate users, providing a basis for user mobility analysis and personalized location-aware services. Existing methods often learn Point of Interest (POI), temporal, and semantic features independently, make limited use of structural knowledge shared across trajectories, and compress structural and sequential information before classification. To address these issues, we propose Multi-Relational Knowledge Graph Enhanced Embedding for Trajectory-User Linking (MakeTUL), which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first attempt to introduce knowledge graph representation learning into TUL. MakeTUL organizes visit-time, POI-category, and transfer-speed information as typed relations in a multi-relational mobility knowledge graph, allowing heterogeneous mobility semantics to jointly constrain the learned embeddings. The resulting POI representations are further enriched with high-order co-occurrence patterns extracted from the trajectory collection, providing structural prior knowledge for sparse and overlapping trajectories. By integrating these prior-enhanced representations with temporal, category, and transfer information, the trajectory sequence learning module captures ordered mobility patterns, while a dual-branch classification layer preserves and combines global structural evidence and sequential evidence at the decision level.</details> | |
| **[Trajectory Design and Budgeted Querying for Digital Twin Calibration](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08631v1)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Digital-twin calibration requires interaction data that is expensive to collect. We study two acquisition decisions: which trajectories to generate, and when to spend a limited budget on privileged parameter measurements. Our framework couples an excitation-oriented reinforcement learning controller, a recurrent parameter estimator with predictive uncertainty, and a budgeted query policy. In Pendulum, a Random Forest diagnostic recovers gravity only weakly from task-oriented trajectories and does not recover mass or length, while a GRU trained on excitation-oriented trajectories reaches a mean absolute error of 0.0066 with no queries. We then withdraw continuous oracle access partway through an episode, so that the twin must run on the estimator's output for the remainder. The estimator-plus-policy pipeline achieves a terminal error of 0.0092 under a three-query budget, against 0.2031 for an uncalibrated twin. In partially observable Waterworld, five controllers produce different observed error profiles across three hidden parameters, and an estimator trained on a five-controller mixture reaches online normalized errors of roughly 4-5%. These exploratory case studies are not controlled ablations, but they motivate treating trajectory design and query allocation as explicit design variables in data-scarce calibration.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at the CDEL 2026 workshop at ECCV 2026 (non-archival)</details> |
| **[TraceSafe: A Systematic Assessment of LLM Guardrails on Multi-Step Tool-Calling Trajectories](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07223v2)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>As large language models (LLMs) evolve from static chatbots into autonomous agents, the primary vulnerability surface shifts from final outputs to intermediate execution traces. While safety guardrails are well-benchmarked for natural language responses, their efficacy remains largely unexplored within multi-step tool-use trajectories. To address this gap, we introduce **TraceSafe-Bench**, the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed to assess mid-trajectory safety. It encompasses 12 risk categories, ranging from security threats (e.g., prompt injection, privacy leaks) to operational failures (e.g., hallucinations, interface inconsistencies), featuring over 1,000 unique execution instances. Our evaluation of 13 LLM-as-a-guard models and 7 specialized guardrails yields three critical findings: 1) *Structural Bottleneck*: Guardrail efficacy is driven more by structural data competence (e.g., JSON parsing) than semantic safety alignment. Performance correlates strongly with structured-to-text benchmarks ($ρ=0.79$, $p<0.01$) while we detect no association with standard jailbreak robustness. 2) *Scale Is Not the Deciding Factor*: Trajectory detection accuracy does not scale monotonically with model size, and general-purpose LLMs consistently outperform specialized safety guardrails. 3) *Bounded Temporal Stability*: Detection accuracy improves with trajectory length within native context bounds as models process dynamic execution behavior, but degrades in extreme long-context regimes due to over-refusal.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted to Conference on Language Modeling (COLM) 2026</details> |
| **[Loom: Multi-Region Analysis of Spatial Transcriptomics with Local Neighborhoods and Global Trajectories](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.22505v2)** | 2026-08-08 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We present Loom, a spatial transcriptomics (ST) visual computing system to support the analysis of pseudo-temporal trajectories, comparative investigation across samples and regions of interest, and the examination of spatially structured processes within local microenvironments. ST is a molecular profiling technology that measures gene expression directly within a thin tissue section while preserving its spatial organization. For practical application-driven analyses, the ST local microenvironment data needs to be integrated with cell reference datasets and temporal simulations of cell behavior. This integration is challenging due to multi-modal registration issues and the complexity of the pseudo-temporal patterns, spatial enrichment data, and gene expression dynamics. Loom leverages a novel glyph coupled with a computational backbone to facilitate the detailed pseudo-temporal exploration of local microenvironments, cross-sample comparisons, and investigation of spatiotemporal biological mechanisms. We evaluate Loom through two case studies developed with experts in tissue pathology and oncologists and through an external usability study. The results demonstrate that Loom supports effectively the discovery of cellular transitions and spatiotemporal expression dynamics.</details> | |
| **[Differential Privacy for Markov Chain State Trajectories](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08341v1)** | 2026-08-08 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Data-driven systems may require state trajectories of Markov chains to function because these trajectories contain information that is useful to the system, e.g., a product's credit risk, a user's physical location, or a user's internet browsing behavior. However, sharing such state trajectories can reveal sensitive information about users, which presents a privacy threat. Therefore, we develop a new framework for privatizing the state trajectories in a Markov chain using differential privacy. Our framework privatizes state trajectories online, in the sense that a private state trajectory is generated at the same time as the sensitive one it approximates. We treat Markov chains as weighted directed graphs whose edge weights are the negative logarithms of the transition probabilities. Then, each state in a private state trajectory is chosen by minimizing its distance to the corresponding state in the sensitive state trajectory, where the notion of distance is equal to the total edge weight along a shortest path. We prove that with high probability the private state trajectory remains close to the sensitive one, which maintains high utility for downstream uses of private data. Additionally, we prove that private state trajectories are consistently in the typical set of state trajectories generated by the underlying Markov chain, which means that private state trajectories have similar statistical properties to actual state trajectories produced by the underlying Markov chain. Numerical simulations show that under $3$-differential privacy, the mechanism we introduce exhibits up to an $80\%$ decrease in entropy compared to the state of the art, which illustrates that private state trajectories generated by our framework more closely resemble their corresponding sensitive state trajectory while maintaining the same level of privacy.</details> | 33 pages, 11 figures |
| **[Query-Only Backdoor Attacks on Self-Evolving Skills via Trajectory Poisoning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08303v1)** | 2026-08-08 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Agentic skills improve large language model (LLM) agents by encoding reusable procedures for complex tasks. However, manually authored skills often adapt poorly to long-horizon tasks and changing environments. To address the limitation, self-evolving skill systems have been developed to automatically construct and update skills from execution trajectories, shifting skill acquisition from external marketplaces to a trusted evolution pipeline. By replacing external skill acquisition with trusted internal construction, self-evolving skill systems reduce exposure to skill injection attacks that rely on direct skill manipulation. However, this skill evolution pipeline may introduce a new attack surface in which an attacker can indirectly steer skill evolution by inducing compromised trajectories through agent interactions. To demonstrate the threat, we propose Trajectory Backdoor Attack (TBA), a query-only attack that steers a trusted skill-evolution pipeline toward producing a backdoored skill. Specifically, we craft attacker-submitted queries to lead the agent to perform the target action and explicitly state the corresponding activation condition in the trajectory. We repeat the same condition-action pattern across diverse triggered tasks, while leaving clean queries unchanged, encouraging the evolver to consolidate the pattern as a reusable trigger-dependent rule into the evolved skill. Experiments on three benchmarks across two skill-evolution systems using four open- and closed-source backbone models demonstrate that TBA reliably implants conditional backdoors while preserving clean-task utility, matching or even surpassing direct skill injection. The results reveal a critical vulnerability in trajectory-driven skill evolution.</details> | |
| **[Traj-VLN: Learning Pixel-Space Interaction via Autoregressive Trajectory Generation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.10744v4)** | 2026-08-08 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Benefiting from the powerful priors embedded in large-scale pre-training data and the emerging commonsense reasoning ability, large language models (LLMs) have shown unprecedented generalization capabilities in many research fields. Recently, projecting visual embeddings into the language space via vision-language models (VLMs) to achieve sim-toreal and cross-scene generalization has become a prevailing paradigm in the field of Vision-and-Language Navigation in Continuous Environments (VLN-CE). VLN requires an embodied agent to navigate through unseen environments following natural linguistic instructions. We emphasize that a VLN task can be decomposed into a sequence of sub-tasks, each corresponding to a process of 3D spatial interaction with the environments described by instructions such as "walk to the end of the sofa and turn left." However, such spatial interactions involving moving into the image along the direction of depth sensing are puzzling for VLMs as they were predominantly trained on conversations with RGB images. Rather than incorporating depth or 3D geometric information-which VLMs rarely encounter during pretrainingwe propose an alternative approach: fine-tuning VLMs to learn navigation interactions directly in 2D pixel space through autoregressive trajectory generation. Given a linguistic instruction and historical observations, our model sequentially predicts a series of pixel coordinates, drawing a trajectory from the bottom center of the current observation. While prior work has proved that pixel-goal supervision outperforms learning of discrete actions, our experiments further verify that the supervision of pixel-space trajectory significantly enhances VLN performance. Moreover, we demonstrate that our flagship model achieves state-of-the-art level performance with relatively limited computational resources and training data.</details> | |
| **[Parameter-Dependent LMI Synthesis for Semi-Global Differential ISS Trajectory Tracking of Nonholonomic Mobile Robots Under Multiplicative Wheel Slip](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08049v1)** | 2026-08-08 | <details><summary>Show</summary>This paper presents a parameter-dependent linear matrix inequality (LMI) framework for trajectory tracking of nonholonomic mobile robots subject to severe multiplicative wheel slip on variable-terrain surfaces. The sampled convex formulation, augmented with grid-to-continuum residual certification, simultaneously establishes semi-global differential input-to-state stability, a prescribed exponential decay rate, regional pole placement, and a gain-bounded feedback proxy for actuator-limited operation. A central contribution is an explicit upper bound on the additive disturbance induced by bounded multiplicative slip in the Kanayama error coordinates, bridging the physical slip mechanism and the convex synthesis paradigm. The auxiliary gain matrix and inverse storage metric are parameterized affinely in the reference velocities, while the storage metric inherits nonlinear dependence through pointwise matrix inversion. Stability is established via a cascade analysis combining variational contraction, forward invariance, slip-induced disturbance bounds, and dissipation-based trajectory reconstruction. Numerical validation compares three controllers across six reference trajectories, six disturbance classes, and a 60-second variable-terrain test featuring six severe slip patches with bidirectional slip ratios reaching +/-50%, replicated on two geometries. Supplementary studies address Gaussian sensor noise, compound stress-testing, and embedded-platform computational feasibility. Across 100 Monte-Carlo runs the proposed controller achieves complete trajectory containment within the certified envelope. On the variable-terrain scenario, peak tracking error is reduced by 12% against the fixed-gain LMI baseline and 49% against the manual baseline, with the constant-gain baseline infeasible at the prescribed decay rate.</details> | <details><summary>23 pa...</summary>23 pages, 18 figures, 50 references</details> |
| **[Auditing Instruction-Trajectory Mismatches in Multimodal Robot Demonstrations](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07895v1)** | 2026-08-08 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Robot demonstration datasets used to train vision-language-action policies can contain a subtle but harmful failure mode: trajectories that are behaviorally correct but paired with the wrong language instruction. We study post-hoc auditing of these Instruction-Trajectory Mismatches (ITMs). Unlike failed rollouts, ITMs often look plausible, and can corrupt the language-behavior mapping learned by the policy. We propose Multimodal Probabilistic Fusion (MMPF), a training-free auditing framework that treats each modality as an expert, estimates a task-label distribution from local neighborhood agreement and global prototype similarity, and then fuses modalities with predictive-entropy weighting in a product of experts. Across LIBERO benchmarks with injected instruction mismatches and noisy real-robot data, MMPF achieves the strongest overall ITM detection and label correction accuracy. We also show that auditing improves most downstream policy learning in settings where language is needed to disambiguate the task. We demonstrate in real robot experiments that our method can achieve improved policy performance and show the trade-off of filtering demonstrations compared to relabeling.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted for publication in IEEE Robotics and Automation Letters (RA-L). 8 pages, 3 figures, 7 tables</details> |
| **[GraphWalker: Agentic Knowledge Graph Question Answering via Synthetic Trajectory Curriculum](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28533v3)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Agentic knowledge graph question answering (KGQA) requires an agent to iteratively interact with knowledge graphs (KGs), posing challenges in both training data scarcity and reasoning generalization. Specifically, existing approaches often restrict agent exploration: prompting-based methods lack autonomous navigation training, while current training pipelines usually confine reasoning to predefined trajectories. To this end, this paper proposes GraphWalker, a novel agentic KGQA framework that addresses these challenges through Automated Trajectory Synthesis and Stage-wise Fine-tuning. GraphWalker adopts a two-stage SFT training paradigm: First, the agent is trained on structurally diverse trajectories synthesized from constrained random-walk paths, establishing a broad exploration prior over the KG; Second, the agent is further fine-tuned on a small set of expert trajectories to develop reflection and error recovery capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our stage-wise SFT paradigm unlocks a higher performance ceiling for a lightweight reinforcement learning (RL) stage, enabling GraphWalker to achieve state-of-the-art performance on CWQ and WebQSP. Additional results on GrailQA and our constructed GraphWalkerBench confirm that GraphWalker enhances generalization to out-of-distribution reasoning paths. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/XuShuwenn/GraphWalker.</details> | COLM 2026 |
| **[Trajectory-Relative Hindsight Distillation for Agentic Reinforcement Learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07371v1)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Recent agentic reinforcement learning methods use hindsight to complement sparse outcome rewards. However, a completed rollout can yield many such signals, leaving their appropriate allocation across turns unclear. We introduce TRIAL, a trajectory-relative hindsight distillation framework with a unified turn-aligned scoring protocol. For each decision turn, TRIAL extracts an outcome view of that decision's realized consequence and evaluates the same response under ordinary and hindsight-conditioned contexts. The signed log-probability gap determines the direction and local strength of token-level supervision, while turn-level magnitudes are normalized jointly over the realized trajectory. The resulting allocation multipliers have an eligible-token-weighted mean of one, redistributing dense supervision across turns while fixing its average multiplier. Experiments on WebShop and ALFWorld with different backbones show that TRIAL outperforms GRPO across all eight combinations of backbone, environment, and evaluation metric, while achieving the best or tied-best performance among six methods on six of them. On WebShop with Qwen3-1.7B, TRIAL improves the success rate from 56.4% to 75.2% and the task score from 78.7% to 85.7%. Controlled ablations further show that trajectory-relative turn allocation provides substantial gains beyond those of dense hindsight distillation alone.</details> | |
| **[Accurate Trajectory Tracking with Model Predictive Contouring Control for Bird-Scale Flapping-Wing MAVs](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06042v3)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Flapping-wing micro aerial vehicles offer quieter and safer operation than rotary-wing drones, yet achieving precise autonomous control of bird-scale ornithopters remains challenging: lift, airspeed, and turning authority are tightly coupled and governed by only a few control inputs. Conventional cascaded controllers treat altitude, speed, and heading independently, producing persistent tracking errors during complex maneuvers, while time-parameterized trajectory tracking requires predefined speed profiles that existing methods cannot robustly produce for these coupled dynamics. We address both limitations simultaneously with a Model Predictive Contouring Control (MPCC) approach that tracks arc-length-parameterized trajectories while optimizing progress online, eliminating the need for predefined timing. However, MPCC requires a dynamical model that captures the coupled aerodynamics without exceeding the computational budget of real-time nonlinear optimization. Here, we propose a compact, continuously differentiable model that captures the dominant couplings of bird-scale ornithopters, enabling real-time predictive control. We validated the method with the XFly ornithopter flying along circular and three-dimensional racing trajectories and achieved a mean deviation from the reference trajectory between 6.5 and 9 cm at speeds up to 3 m/s, which represents an 8.5x improvement over prior ornithopter control methods.</details> | 9 pages, 7 figures |
| **[Towards trajectory-unsupervised physics-informed neural solvers for molecular dynamics](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07232v1)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are governed by explicit equations of motion, yet most neural approaches that accelerate or emulate MD rely on simulator-generated trajectories, forces, or energies for training. In this work we ask to what extent can physically meaningful molecular trajectories be recovered from the governing laws. We introduce the Differentiable Newtonian Molecular Solver (DINaMo), a physics-informed neural framework that represents molecular trajectories as differentiable functions of time and is trained exclusively through Newtonian dynamics, conservation laws, and analytic interaction potentials on a given equilibrated initial state. Unlike prior physics-informed MD formulations, DINaMo uses no simulator-generated trajectories, forces, velocities, or energies as supervisory targets. In Lennard--Jones argon systems, the learned trajectories reproduce short-time coordinate, energy, and structural observables, including in a larger and denser liquid-like setting where the radial distribution function is recovered. Although currently limited to short temporal horizons, the results indicate that physically meaningful molecular trajectories can emerge directly from physics-only supervision, supporting the feasibility of trajectory-unsupervised neural solvers for molecular dynamics.</details> | <details><summary>26 pa...</summary>26 pages, 6 figures, 5 tables</details> |
| **[When Experience Becomes Instruction: Trajectory Poisoning in Self-Evolving Agent Skill Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05563v2)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Self-evolving skill (SES) systems distill agent trajectories into persistent skills, allowing untrusted experience to become trusted instruction. We introduce PoisonedEvolution, a trajectory-poisoning attack on this promotion process. Our skill-visible black-box attacker can inspect a target skill and contribute bounded evidence, but cannot observe private pools or evolution logic or edit the skill bank. Artifact poisoning requires Inclusion, Evolution Attribution, and Realization. Attribution is the distinctive bottleneck: the target behavior must appear causally useful, recurrent, and generalizable before promotion. We evaluate four representative security-effect families using inert canary specifications. At 10% attacker support, across six mainstream LLM evolvers in SkillClaw, PoisonedEvolution embeds target behaviors in 546/600 trials (91.0% SER). On the structurally different Trace2Skill pipeline at the same ratio, it embeds target behaviors in 369/600 trials (61.5% SER), demonstrating transfer across evolution architectures. In a representative controlled study, three consistent attacker records suffice in a 30-record batch, whereas a single record is much weaker. Ablations identify recurring support, causal framing, and domain-aligned encoding as the main determinants of success. These findings expose evidence promotion as a security boundary for self-evolving agents.</details> | |
| **[Decoupling Intention from Trajectory: A Representational Deduction Framework for World Action Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06994v1)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>World Action Models (WAMs) aim to construct a unified architecture capable of understanding world state evolution and guiding to generative motion planning. However, existing visual branches focus on predicting static visual observation, rather than reflecting potential transition information that captures the evolution of world states under motion interactions. This leads to representational entanglement between high-level physical condition evolution and low-level action trajectory generation within the Action Model, creating a structural bottleneck while weakening the predictive capability of world evolution modeling for action generation. We propose PILOT (Physical Inference for Latent Optimized Trajectories), whose core Representational Deduction (RD) bridges this gap by integrating motion thought-of-chain (CoT) guidance as a native model capability. Specifically, RD aims to encourage the action branch to explicitly model potential state transition tokens, which are retained as CoT in the reasoning space to guide fine-grained motion trajectory. Experiments demonstrate that RD not only significantly improves the success rate and generalization ability of WAMs in complex robotic manipulation tasks but also enhances the model's physical interpretability by decoupling high-level motion semantics from low-level trajectory details. Furthermore, the abundant state transition supervision signals introduced by RD effectively alleviate the sparse supervision in action generation, enabling it to serve as an efficient few-shot real-robot fine-tuning strategy and demonstrating superior scalability for migration to mainstream WAM architectures.</details> | |
| **[Long-Horizon Agent Trajectory Attribution: A Unified Benchmark and Fine-Grained Annotation Framework](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06909v1)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly operate through long-horizon trajectories involving user instructions, tool use, external observations, and memory. Existing benchmarks primarily evaluate behavioral outcomes but provide limited support for fine-grained attribution analysis. We introduce trajectory attribution and develop a benchmark and annotation framework for this task. The benchmark organizes heterogeneous trajectories under a unified component schema and provides annotations of the primary attribution component, together with attack and execution chains where applicable. Instantiating the benchmark with trajectories from AgentDojo and the Stage and Canary settings of Agent3Sigma yields more than 1,300 annotated trajectories covering task-aligned actions, unsafe actions, and safety refusals. The benchmark defines two evaluation tasks, primary attribution localization and attribution-chain recovery, and provides reference baselines based on incremental trajectory contribution and component-level leave-one-out perturbation. It captures diverse attribution settings, including local and long-range attribution as well as structured attribution chains. Reference baseline results exhibit substantial performance differences across these settings, providing an initial characterization of the benchmark's attribution challenges. Beyond this initial instantiation, we release a reusable annotation skill that enables trajectories generated by new agent models to be standardized, annotated, and evaluated under the same framework. Project resources and future releases are available at https://github.com/chenjing-2024/agent-trajectory-attribution.</details> | <details><summary>17 pa...</summary>17 pages, 4 figures, 7 tables</details> |
| **[Plan-and-Avoid: Real-Time Aircraft Trajectory Coordination in a Multi-Agent Environment](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06648v1)** | 2026-08-06 | <details><summary>Show</summary>This paper presents a real-time Plan-and-Avoid (PAA framework for coordinating cooperative multi-agent airspace operations around a declared priority trajectory. The priority trajectory represents an aircraft flight plan that must be preserved because of constrained maneuverability, an emergency, a mission-critical task, or assigned operational priority. The framework predicts uncertainty-aware, well-clear separation violations with surrounding traffic and, when the priority plan alone cannot maintain separation, generates vehicle-constrained unilateral advisories that modify nearby aircraft trajectories to maintain well-clear separation for all traffic. The approach is applicable to any declared priority trajectory. This paper demonstrates the Plan component using a contingency landing planner to generate candidate priority trajectories. PAA then identifies nearby aircraft passing too close to this priority trajectory and issues Avoid resolution advisories to these aircraft. The framework is tested using real-world Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) traffic from the Washington, D.C., airspace across more than 900 forced-landing cases, totaling over 140 hours of simulated flight. The PAA framework generates feasible cooperative advisories for all 575 unique conflict encounters, with a worst-case end-to-end response time of 5.7 s on a personal computer, including priority trajectory planning, advisory generation, and 1 s two-way datalink delay. In total, 93.5% of generated advisories satisfy the 35 s RTCA DO-365 Detect-and-Avoid temporal threshold. These results demonstrate low-latency coordination for preserving priority trajectories while maintaining well-clear separation through real-time automated advisory generation. Future work will quantify advisory-induced delays and their operational impacts.</details> | |

## Graph Neural Networks
| **Title** | **Date** | **Abstract** | **Comment** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **[A Unifying Relational Perspective on Expressive Lottery Tickets](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18819v1)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used, but how parameter sparsity affects the expressivity of relational (RGNNs) and temporal (TGNNs) variants is poorly understood. The Strong Expressive Lottery Ticket Hypothesis (SELTH) posits the existence of sparse GNNs that preserve Weisfeiler-Leman (WL) expressivity on static graphs. We generalize this existence result to a probabilistic statement for multi-relational and temporal domains via the relational WL (RWL). We prove that sufficiently parameterized RGNNs contain sparse subnetworks that maintain 1-RWL expressivity and derive a lower bound on the probability that a random pruning yields such a subnetwork. We show that common TGNNs and cross-graph message passing schemes admit RGNN reformulations such that they inherit these guarantees and, moreover, that the expressivity of a sparse RGNN is connected to its optimization behavior under common update regimes. Experiments instantiate the bound, compare it to empirical probabilities on synthetic data, and study how pre-training expressivity relates to optimization and prediction quality metrics on temporal and molecular benchmarks.</details> | ICML 2026 |
| **[DeGLIF for Label Noise Robust Node Classification using GNNs](https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.00244v2)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Noisy labelled datasets are generally inexpensive compared to clean labelled datasets, and the same is true for graph data. In this paper, we propose a denoising technique DeGLIF: Denoising Graph Data using Leave-One-Out Influence Function. DeGLIF uses a small set of clean data and the leave-one-out influence function to make label noise robust node-level prediction on graph data. Leave-one-out influence function approximates the change in the model parameters if a training point is removed from the training dataset. Recent advances propose a way to calculate the leave-one-out influence function for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). We extend that recent work to estimate the change in validation loss, if a training node is removed from the training dataset. We use this estimate and a new theoretically motivated relabelling function to denoise the training dataset. We propose two DeGLIF variants to identify noisy nodes. Both these variants do not require any information about the noise model or the noise level in the dataset; DeGLIF also does not estimate these quantities. For one of these variants, we prove that the noisy points detected can indeed increase risk. We carry out detailed computational experiments on different datasets to show the effectiveness of DeGLIF. It achieves better accuracy than other baseline algorithms</details> | |
| **[Visual-Aware Representation of Web Pages for Machine Learning Applications](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18727v1)** | 2026-08-19 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Applying machine learning to web pages is challenging due to the need to interpret HTML together with associated resources and perform rendering to obtain a meaningful visual and layout-aware representation. As a result, machine learning over web content remains comparatively underexplored. In this paper, we present a platform for visual-aware representation and machine learning over web pages based on the open-source rendering tool FitLayout. The platform provides a server capable of rendering web pages, explicitly capturing their visual and structural properties in an RDF-based representation, and persisting the rendered documents in an integrated storage. The processing pipeline is controlled via a REST API, while SPARQL queries are used to retrieve structured data suitable as input for machine learning algorithms. By explicitly modeling rendered web pages, including fine-grained layout details, the platform enables dataset sharing and supports the reproducibility of experimental results. The architecture supports the complete dataset preparation workflow, from web page collection and rendering through preprocessing and annotation of content elements to downstream learning tasks. We further provide a Python client library that integrates the platform with standard machine learning workflows. As a demonstration, we show how rendered web pages can be transformed into graph-based representations and used to train graph neural networks for recognizing key content elements, illustrating both the applicability of the approach and the reproducibility of the results.</details> | |
| **[FM Synthesizer Audio-Parameter Shared Embeddings](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18226v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Given a target sound, finding the synthesizer preset that best reproduces it remains a core problem in sound design. Existing methods treat synthesis parameters as flat vectors, discarding the signal routing and parameter interactions that produce audio. We make two contributions. First, to learn a representation of parameters including their signal routing, we design a graph neural network whose message passing structure imitates FM signal processing. Second, we adapt the multimodal objective from SLAP to learn joint embeddings of audio and FM synthesizer parameters, enabling preset retrieval from a gallery. We focus on the Yamaha DX7, where six identical sinusoid operators interact according to one of 32 routing topologies. Our graph encoder's message passing weights are shared across all nodes and layers, enabling processing of arbitrary topologies of any size. When every topology is seen during training, the DX7-GNN and two baselines achieve strong audio-to-preset retrieval. When some topologies are held out for testing, the DX7-GNN substantially outperforms both baselines despite having the fewest parameters. Our ablations further support the claim that imitating FM signal flow in a parameter encoder improves generalization to unseen topologies.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted to DAFx 2026</details> |
| **[Against Political Polarization: A Unified Framework for Tracing Evolving Political Ideologies on Social Media](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17987v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The rapid growth of social media has greatly influenced political discourse, highlighting the need to understand individual political ideologies and their temporal dynamics. This task faces challenges such as data scarcity, abundant non-political content, costly and bias-prone manual annotation, and difficulty in modeling future ideological inclinations. To address these issues, we propose TSN4PI, a unified framework for tracking the evolution of political ideologies on social media. It includes two core modules. The PIDN uses large language models with style transfer and unsupervised domain adaptation to enable robust ideology detection and filter irrelevant content from noisy, cross-domain data. The PIPN employs temporal graph neural networks to predict future ideological shifts, enabling comprehensive analysis of ideology presence, intensity, and evolution. We release two large-scale datasets for noncommercial research use to facilitate further work. Extensive case studies on multiple platforms (X and Truth Social) validate the effectiveness of TSN4PI and provide empirical insights into political polarization and the evolution of online ideologies. Our findings offer a nuanced perspective, advancing both methodological development and empirical understanding in this field.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted by ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology</details> |
| **[ESR-HGNN: Eliminating Semantic Redundancy for Efficient Mini-batch HGNN Inference](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17865v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Heterogeneous graph neural networks (HGNNs) are highly effective in processing heterogeneous graph data and have been widely adopted in critical domains. As real-world graph data continues to scale, performing direct inference on entire graphs becomes increasingly infeasible, making mini-batch methods the standard approach. However, in end-to-end HGNN inference, metapath-based mini-batch sampling constitutes a significant performance bottleneck due to the extensive random memory accesses induced by the irregular traversal of graph structures. Existing sampling paradigms suffer from excessive redundant traversals caused by inherent semantic redundancy, severely degrading sampling efficiency and, consequently, leading to suboptimal mini-batch inference performance. In this work, we propose a redundancy-aware HGNN sampling paradigm that leverages a metapath trie to reuse traversal paths, effectively eliminating redundant memory accesses. We then map it onto a multi-channel hardware sampling unit denominated ESR-HGNN. Furthermore, we introduce a reusability-driven metapath grouping technique that optimally clusters metapaths to maximize reusable traversal paths within hardware channels, enhancing efficiency in scenarios with semantic parallelism. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that ESR-HGNN achieves an average sampling performance improvement of one order of magnitude over CPU and GPU, accompanied by significant energy savings. Additionally, it delivers substantial speedup in end-to-end mini-batch inference when integrated with GPU and state-of-the-art HGNN inference accelerator.</details> | <details><summary>14 pa...</summary>14 pages, 12 figures, to apear in IEEE TPDS (just accepted)</details> |
| **[ETHEREAL: A 25.6-$μ$s/inf. Low-latency Event-driven Graph-neural-network Processor for High-resolution Vision at the Edge](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17787v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Dynamic vision sensors (DVS) are enticing candidates to reach the low-latency, sub-ms target of edge-vision applications, as they generate events with a $μ$s-level time resolution. However, using DVS front ends also calls for novel algorithm/hardware back ends capable of efficiently handling streams of sparse spatiotemporal events. While event-driven graph neural networks (EV-GNNs) have emerged as a solution on the algorithmic side that is both accurate and efficient, there is no dedicated hardware to date capable of efficiently supporting their mixed requirements of dense-regular compute operations and sparse-irregular memory accesses. We therefore introduce ETHEREAL, the first EV-GNN processor chip, capable of bridging this gap by means of a neighbor-parallel spline-convolution engine combined with a split-2D/3D memory hierarchy that introduces a novel spatiotemporal event-caching mechanism. Measurement results demonstrate a 25.6$μ$s latency and a 1.6$μ$J energy per end-to-end event-wise inference on the state-of-the art DAGr-GNN workload and VGA-resolution (640x480 pixels) DSEC dataset.</details> | <details><summary>This ...</summary>This work has been submitted to the IEEE JSSC for possible publication</details> |
| **[Communicating Credit Risk with Large Language Models: Evaluation of Explanations from Standard and Alternative Data-Based Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17715v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Credit decisioning is a high-stakes task in which model outputs must be accurate and explainable to support compliant decisions. Although modern credit risk models such as eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) improve predictive performance, their explanations are often too technical for stakeholders creating communication gaps that can shape approvals, denials, and fairness judgments. We examine whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as explanation layers that translate post-hoc explanation artefacts into stakeholder-appropriate risk narratives. Using Freddie Mac single-family loan-level data, we develop three pipelines: standard tabular (XGBoost + SHAP), and two with alternative data, a pure network-based (GNN + GNNExplainer), and a bimodal one (combining tabular and network data). We generate narratives with three LLM configurations: a small fine-tuned LLM (Gemma 3 4B), a large fine-tuned LLM (DeepSeek R1 70B), and a zero-shot commercial LLM (Gemini 2.5). Explanation quality is evaluated through automated checks across all pipelines and a human study of bimodal explanations comparing credit risk professionals and non-professionals on eight decision-relevant dimensions. We have three main findings. First, the pipeline accounts for higher variance in evidence-grounding scores than the language model, meaning that the binding constraint on explanation quality is the evidence representation, not the model used. Second, the explanation narratives reliably name the influential factors but are less reliable when stating the direction of influence, which may be consequential for adverse-action communication. Finally, professionals apply stricter evidentiary standards than non-professionals. We discuss implications for the governance of risk models, including deployment considerations and the value of domain-aligned LLMs in regulated credit settings.</details> | 49 pages, 14 figures |
| **[GEqTrain: A Configuration-Driven Framework for Retargeting Equivariant Graph Neural Networks Across 3D Scientific Tasks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.19083v3)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Equivariant graph neural networks provide a powerful modeling language for three-dimensional scientific data, but their reuse is often limited by implementations tied to specific tasks, outputs, and training regimes. We present GEqTrain, a configuration-driven framework that separates dataset semantics, model composition, and training objectives. Raw data are mapped to typed node-, edge-, and graph-level fields, while model stacks, losses, and training workflows are assembled declaratively through Hydra configurations. A shared equivariant backbone and training infrastructure can therefore be retargeted to a new task primarily through configuration. We demonstrate this flexibility on three different problems handled within one software stack: coarse-grained-to-atomistic backmapping of biomolecular systems, prediction of NMR chemical shifts in molecular solids, and equivariant generative modeling. Our aim is not to surpass individually optimized task-specific systems, but to show that a shared representation and training infrastructure can achieve competitive accuracy across qualitatively different tasks at the cost of a configuration change. We further introduce GEqDiff, a generative extension based on equivariant flow matching. GEqDiff treats user-defined equivariant fields as first-class generation targets, jointly transporting Cartesian positions and non-scalar node fields spanning representations up to l=3 within a single equivariant flow. We validate this capability on a controlled synthetic benchmark inspired by protein secondary-structure motifs, showing that fields with heterogeneous transformation properties can be reconstructed jointly and with high fidelity. By reducing the software overhead of moving between predictive and generative, scalar and tensorial settings, GEqTrain aims to make equivariant modeling more reproducible, extensible, and reusable.</details> | |
| **[Asynchronous Message Passing for Addressing Oversquashing in Graph Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.06777v2)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) suffer from oversquashing, where structural bottlenecks limit message propagation between distant nodes, hindering tasks that require long-range interactions. Existing remedies are limited: graph rewiring alters edge connectivity, compromising inductive bias, while increasing channel capacity adds parameters. In this work, we propose an efficient, model-agnostic framework that asynchronously updates node features across layers, unlike standard synchronous message passing. At each layer, only a centrality-guided batch of nodes updates, letting information propagate sequentially rather than compress simultaneously into fixed-capacity channels. We show theoretically that our framework's sensitivity bound decays more slowly with depth than synchronous message passing. We have applied the framework to six standard and two long-range graph classification benchmarks, and it achieves notable gains, including $5\%$ and $4\%$ improvements on REDDIT-BINARY and Peptides-struct, respectively.</details> | |
| **[HyPE-GT: where Graph Transformers meet Hyperbolic Positional Encodings](https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.06576v2)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph Transformers (GTs) facilitate the comprehension of complex relationships on graph-structured data by leveraging self-attention of the possible pairs of nodes. The structural information or inductive bias of the input graph is provided as positional encodings to the GT. The positional encodings are mostly Euclidean and are not able to capture the complex hierarchical relationships of the corresponding nodes. To address the limitation, we introduce a novel and efficient framework, HyPE, that generates learnable positional encodings in the non-Euclidean hyperbolic space that capture the intricate hierarchical relationships of the underlying graphs. Unlike existing methods, HyPE can generate a set of hyperbolic positional encodings, empowering us to explore diverse options for the optimal selection of PEs for specific downstream tasks. Additionally, we repurpose the generated hyperbolic positional encodings to mitigate the impact of oversmoothing in deep Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Furthermore, we provide extensive theoretical underpinnings to offer insights into the working mechanism of the HyPE framework. Comprehensive experiments on four molecular benchmarks, including the four large-scale Open Graph Benchmark (OGB) datasets, substantiate the effectiveness of hyperbolic positional encodings in enhancing the performance of Graph Transformers. We also consider Coauthor and Copurchase networks to establish the efficacy of HyPE in controlling oversmoothing in deep GNNs.</details> | |
| **[NICE: Scale-Stable Perturbations for Graph Neural Network Explanations via Noise Corruption](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16038v2)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Post-hoc Graph Neural Network (GNN) explainers commonly follow a Perturb-Query paradigm, inferring the importance of graph elements based on queried predictions to perturbed inputs. However, such perturbations often introduce substantial distribution shift, undermining the reliability of the queried predictions used to derive explanations. While existing efforts mainly improve perturbed graphs or stabilize model predictions on them, we revisit the perturbation mechanism itself. We show that the widely used Element-wise Masking(EM) suppresses edge-induced messages toward zero, causing deterministic scale contraction that accumulates across message-passing layers, a phenomenon we term Scale Drift. Consequently, prediction changes under EM may conflate information corruption with deviations in propagation scale. As a scale-stable alternative to EM, we introduce Noise Corruption (NC), which perturbs each message through matched-norm random-direction corruption while preserving the expected squared message norm. Building on NC, we propose NICE, a Noise Corruption-based explanation framework, which learns a Stochastic Restoration Boundary (SRB) under NC-induced uncertainty, balancing target-prediction restoration against compactness. Furthermore, Boundary-Integrated Gradient (BIG) converts this boundary into edge attributions by accumulating each edge's contribution to reducing restoration risk along the restoration path. Experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate stronger explanation performance and model faithfulness while confirming that NC substantially reduces the Scale Drift induced by masking.</details> | 17 pages, 9 figures |
| **[General Semantic Knowledge Infusion for Spatio-Temporal Traffic Forecasting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17440v1)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Although Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have made significant advances in spatio-temporal traffic forecasting, their performance is limited when they rely solely on sensor proximity or road-network topology. This paper presents a spatio-temporal prediction framework, developed to incorporate knowledge in various forms. This framework aims to improve sensor-level, contextual understanding of the environment. A general-purpose knowledge graph (e.g., Wikidata) is used to create semantic subgraphs around traffic sensors and generate knowledge graph embeddings that capture meaningful relationships, such as nearby points of interest, administrative hierarchies, and the functional roles of locations. These embeddings are then fused with conventional traffic sensor graphs to provide additional adjacency matrices informed by semantics. This allows GNNs to learn the semantic context beyond physical connectivity. This study differs from previous research in two key ways. Firstly, rather than proposing a novel GNN architecture, it demonstrates the general impact of external knowledge on prediction accuracy. Secondly, experiments with well-established traffic forecasting approaches show that external knowledge provides additional information that street network data alone cannot convey. The results show that integrating data from general-purpose knowledge graphs and sensor networks through data fusion can enhance the prediction accuracy of traffic forecasting models, and offers a potential pathway toward improved interpretability.</details> | <details><summary>8 pag...</summary>8 pages, 3 figures (published at MDM'26)</details> |
| **[EquiPocket: an E(3)-Equivariant Geometric Graph Neural Network for Ligand Binding Site Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.12177v5)** | 2026-08-18 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Predicting the binding sites of target proteins plays a fundamental role in drug discovery. Most existing deep-learning methods consider a protein as a 3D image by spatially clustering its atoms into voxels and then feed the voxelized protein into a 3D CNN for prediction. However, the CNN-based methods encounter several critical issues: 1) defective in representing irregular protein structures; 2) sensitive to rotations; 3) insufficient to characterize the protein surface; 4) unaware of protein size shift. To address the above issues, this work proposes EquiPocket, an E(3)-equivariant Graph Neural Network (GNN) for binding site prediction, which comprises three modules: the first one to extract local geometric information for each surface atom, the second one to model both the chemical and spatial structure of protein and the last one to capture the geometry of the surface via equivariant message passing over the surface atoms. We further propose a dense attention output layer to alleviate the effect incurred by variable protein size. Extensive experiments on several representative benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our framework to the state-of-the-art methods.</details> | <details><summary>This ...</summary>This paper has been withdrawn by the authors. After further internal evaluation, we find that the technical elaboration and experimental design in the current manuscript require substantial restructuring and revision. The authors will comprehensively optimize the technical framework and reorganize the manuscript before future public release</details> |
| **[Community Concealment from Graph Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.12250v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph neural networks (GNNs) enable powerful unsupervised learning of communities. However, such inference may inadvertently expose sensitive group structures, critical clustered patterns, or collective behaviors, raising concerns about sensitive group-level privacy. In social and critical infrastructure networks, unauthorized community inference can reveal coordinated asset groups, operational hierarchies, and system dependencies that may be exploited for reconnaissance or profiling. We study a defensive setting in which a network (or defender) operator seeks to conceal a community of interest while making only small, utility-preserving modifications to the network. Our analysis shows that community concealment depends on two measurable factors: the connectivity at the community boundary and the feature similarity between the protected community and its neighbors. Guided by these observations, we introduce Feature-Community-guided DICE (FCom-DICE), a perturbation strategy built on DICE (Disconnect Internally Connect Externally) that rewires a set of structurally influential edges and adjusts node features to reduce the distinctiveness exploited by GNN message passing. Across synthetic benchmarks and real network graphs such as Facebook, Wikipedia, and Bitcoin Transactions, FCom-DICE consistently outperforms structure-only DICE under the same perturbation budgets. The largest improvements are observed for communities that are weakly connected to the rest of the network and well separated in feature space. These gains are achieved while preserving key structural and feature characteristics of the original network. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of feature-aware perturbations for reducing the recoverability of targeted communities under GNN-based community inference.</details> | |
| **[From Abductive Explanations to Global Logical Rules for Node Classification in SGCs](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17103v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved remarkable performance in node classification tasks, motivating growing interest in methods capable of explaining their predictions. Recent logic-based approaches, such as LogicXGNN, derive global logical rules for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) from collections of explanatory subgraphs. While informative, these subgraphs may contain redundant structural information that is specific to individual nodes, potentially limiting the generality of the extracted rules. In this work, we propose a logic-based framework for node classification in Simple Graph Convolution (SGC) networks that uses minimal abductive explanations as an intermediate representation for rule extraction. For each node, we compute a minimal set of node-feature pairs sufficient to preserve the predicted class. These explanations are then used to train decision trees from which global logical rules are extracted. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that the proposed framework produces compact global rules while maintaining high fidelity to the original SGC model.</details> | |
| **[Unbiased Recommender Systems with Implicit Feedback](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16704v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Recommender systems typically rely on implicit feedback (e.g., clicks) to infer user preferences. However, such data is inherently prone to various biases, including position bias and popularity bias. Position bias occurs when higher-ranked items receive more interactions regardless of true relevance. Popularity bias reinforces frequent exposure of popular items while under-recommending relevant, yet less popular ones. Directly learning from such data fails to capture true user preferences, leading to suboptimal recommendations. This research focuses on mitigating position bias and popularity bias in recommender systems. Specifically, I address position bias in learning-to-rank (LTR) systems and popularity bias in collaborative filtering (CF) models and social recommender systems based on graph neural networks. My work develops methods that overcome the limitations of existing approaches to mitigating position bias and popularity bias, enabling more relevant and personalized recommendations that align with users' preferences.</details> | |
| **[From Lab to Reality: A Practical Evaluation of Deep Learning Models and LLMs for Vulnerability Detection](https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.10485v3)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Vulnerability detection methods based on deep learning (DL) have shown strong performance on benchmark datasets, yet their real-world effectiveness remains underexplored. Recent work suggests that graph neural network-based and transformer-based models, including large language models (LLMs), yield promising results when evaluated on curated benchmark datasets. These datasets are typically characterized by similar data distributions and may contain synthetic samples, heuristic labels, or labeling noise. In this study, we systematically evaluate four representative DL models---Devign, ReVeal, LineVul, and VulBERTa---across four representative datasets: Juliet, Devign, BigVul, and ICVul. Each model is trained independently on each dataset, and the graph-based and CodeBERT representations adopted by these models are analyzed using t-SNE and centroid distance to examine vulnerability-related patterns. To assess realistic applicability, we further evaluate trained ReVeal and LineVul models, along with four open-weight LLMs, on VentiVul, our newly constructed temporally separated out-of-distribution (OOD) dataset comprising 200 recent vulnerabilities from Linux and Chromium. Our experiments reveal that current representation methods struggle to distinguish vulnerable from non-vulnerable code and that trained models generalize poorly across datasets with differing distributions and characteristics. When evaluated on VentiVul, performance drops sharply, with most models failing to detect vulnerabilities reliably or distinguish vulnerable functions from their patched counterparts. These results expose a persistent gap between academic benchmarks and real-world deployment, emphasizing the value of our deployment-oriented evaluation framework and the need for more robust code representations, higher-quality datasets, and evaluation methods that account for vulnerability-fixing changes.</details> | |
| **[POI Recommendation with LLM-Augmented Multi-Graph Learning and Contrastive Alignment](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16407v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Point-of-interest (POI) recommendation models based on graph neural networks achieve strong performance by propagating collaborative signals over user-item interactions, yet they struggle with the cold-start problem, where items with few or no interactions are not represented. In this paper, we propose LLM-augmented Multi-Graph Contrastive Learning (LLM-MGCL), a multi-graph neural network that uses semantic and spatial information about items to extend the LightGCN backbone with two auxiliary item-item graphs: a semantic graph constructed from sentence embeddings of LLM-generated photo summaries and keywords, and a geographic graph derived from Haversine distances between business locations. Item embeddings are propagated over all three graphs in parallel, fused additively, and aligned across views through a bidirectional InfoNCE contrastive objective that connects behavioral, semantic, and spatial representations of the same items. Experiments on the Yelp Multimodal Recommendation Dataset show that LLM-MGCL outperforms classical collaborative filtering, matrix factorization, and interaction-only graph neural network baselines. It improves Recall@20 by 52.0% and NDCG@20 by 64.8% over LightGCN while performing on par with the strongest contrastive baseline, Self-supervised Graph Learning (SGL), which is also affected by the cold-start problem. An ablation study reveals that the cross-view contrastive alignment (CA) is the primary driver of these gains, with the best performance achieved when all three graphs are combined. Our results suggest that externally grounded, LLM-derived item knowledge can effectively compensate for missing collaborative signal and mitigate the item cold-start problem in POI recommendation.</details> | |
| **[DepTGL: A Parallel Framework for Memory-based TGNN Training with Adaptive Temporal Data Dependency Management](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16305v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Memory-based Temporal Graph Neural Networks (M-TGNNs) maintain recursively updated node states to capture fine-grained temporal interactions. However, existing distributed frameworks lack effective mechanisms for managing the temporal data dependencies inherent in these models. As a result, they must enforce strict chronological updates, incur substantial remote synchronization overhead, and experience severe load imbalance when temporal event streams are skewed. We propose DepTGL, a scalable distributed training framework that restructures temporal-dependency management for M-TGNNs from a data-centric perspective. First, DepTGL introduces a hybrid temporal-dependency management scheme that explicitly balances communication and caching overhead via temporal-event caching, supplemented by selective dependency-driven communication. Next, DepTGL incorporates a gradient-aware cache-synchronization policy that adaptively suppresses boundary updates as model optimization stabilizes, thereby reducing redundant synchronization. Finally, DepTGL integrates a load-aware temporal-pruning strategy that eliminates auxiliary replay events under skew-induced load spikes, reducing redundant data processing and mitigating straggler effects. Experiments on six real-world temporal graphs show that DepTGL achieves an average speedup of 4.99x over state-of-the-art baselines, while maintaining comparable accuracy.</details> | 14 pages, 6 figures |
| **[Not All Neighbors Matter: Understanding the Impact of Graph Sparsification on GNN Pipelines](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.06952v2)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>As graphs scale to billions of nodes and edges, graph Machine Learning workloads are constrained by the cost of multi-hop traversals over exponentially growing neighborhoods. While various system-level and algorithmic optimizations have been proposed to accelerate Graph Neural Network (GNN) pipelines, data management and movement remain the primary bottlenecks at scale. In this paper, we explore whether graph sparsification, a well-established technique that reduces edges to create sparser neighborhoods, can serve as a lightweight pre-processing step to address these bottlenecks while preserving accuracy on node classification tasks. We develop an extensible experimental framework that enables systematic evaluation of how different sparsification methods affect the performance and accuracy of GNN models. We conduct the first comprehensive study of GNN training and inference on sparsified graphs, revealing several key findings. First, sparsification often preserves or even improves predictive performance. As an example, random sparsification raises the accuracy of the GAT model by 6.8% on the PubMed graph. Second, benefits increase with scale, substantially accelerating both training and inference. Our results show that the K-Neighbor sparsifier improves model serving performance on the Products graph by 11.7x with only a 0.7% accuracy drop. Importantly, we find that the computational overhead of sparsification is quickly amortized, making it practical for very large graphs.</details> | |
| **[Unifying Graph Neural Networks Through a Common Layer Equation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16097v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph neural networks are commonly described through family-specific equations whose notation obscures shared computations and structural differences. We introduce a common layer equation that represents covered architectures through seven components: an update domain, channel set, propagation bank, per-channel message maps, channel-fusion operator, ego/residual map, and update map. The central factorization separates where information moves, encoded by the propagation bank, from what moves, encoded by the message maps. Function-valued fillings extend the same equation across local message passing, attention, spectral filtering, global communication, relation-specific channels, higher-order domains, and geometric messages. We make this unification explicit and checkable through worked reductions of canonical layers and component assignments spanning seven nonexclusive architectural families. A fixed slot discipline assigns operations by computational role and defines the framework's coverage boundary. The decomposition also yields component-level theoretical insights: under endpoint-local messages and node-local updates, operator support bounds one-layer dependencies, and one-layer global mixing requires a full effective operator row under the stated hypotheses. The resulting framework organizes more than 200 architectures in a common design space, enables component-wise comparison and generation of structurally consistent architectures, and connects propagation choices to oversmoothing, oversquashing, heterophily, and expressivity. It further exposes the empirical inverse problem of mapping measurable graph and task properties to validated component choices.</details> | <details><summary>133 p...</summary>133 pages, including appendix; includes figures and tables</details> |
| **[OceanLight: Efficient Global Ocean Forecasting via Geometry-Adaptive Unstructured Mesh Representation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16070v1)** | 2026-08-17 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Reliable global ocean forecasting is critical for climate monitoring, marine navigation, and extreme event early warning. Physics-based ocean forecasting models impose prohibitive computational costs, while existing deep learning approaches predominantly rely on structured-grid architectures, incurring unnecessary computation on masked land cells and enforcing uniform resolution across dynamically heterogeneous ocean regions regardless of local flow complexity. Here we present OceanLight, an efficient global ocean forecasting framework innovatively combining geometry-adaptive unstructured mesh tokenization with a graph neural network (GNN) backbone. OceanLight achieves pointwise forecast accuracy and kinetic energy spectral fidelity exceeding both operational numerical analyses and state-of-the-art AI-based models, while surpassing all AI-based ocean models in geostrophic balance consistency. Furthermore, OceanLight demonstrates reliable mesoscale eddy representation, capturing coherent ocean structures beyond pointwise statistical optimization. These capabilities are delivered with a 62% reduction in GPU memory consumption and 70\% reduction in FLOPs relative to structured-grid baselines. Our unstructured mesh representation establishes a generalizable paradigm for scalable data-driven oceanography.</details> | 35 pages, 21 figures |
| **[Self-Supervised Learning of Graph Representations for Network Intrusion Detection](https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.16625v6)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Detecting intrusions in network traffic is a challenging task, particularly under limited supervision and constantly evolving attack patterns. While recent works have leveraged graph neural networks for network intrusion detection, they often decouple representation learning from anomaly detection, limiting the utility of the embeddings for identifying attacks. We propose GraphIDS, a self-supervised intrusion detection model that unifies these two stages by learning local graph representations of normal communication patterns through a masked autoencoder. An inductive graph neural network embeds each flow with its local topological context to capture typical network behavior, while a Transformer-based encoder-decoder reconstructs these embeddings, implicitly learning global co-occurrence patterns via self-attention without requiring explicit positional information. During inference, flows with unusually high reconstruction errors are flagged as potential intrusions. This end-to-end framework ensures that embeddings are directly optimized for the downstream task, facilitating the recognition of malicious traffic. On diverse NetFlow benchmarks, GraphIDS achieves strong performance, reaching up to 99.98% PR-AUC and 99.61% macro F1-score.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at NeurIPS 2025</details> |
| **[Characterising cardiac tissue properties with graph neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15843v1)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Characterising electrophysiological properties of cardiac tissue efficiently and accurately from spatially sparse intracardiac measurements is clinically important for localising ablation targets and improving arrhythmia treatment. We developed a graph neural network-based framework trained on synthetic electrogram signals on 2D flat surfaces to identify areas of interest in the context of cardiac ablation for premature ventricular complexes (PVCs). Our method achieved an average precision of 0.96, 0.97, and 0.95 for the detection of single-patch fibrosis, rapid depolarisation and high excitability, respectively. The trained model can then be applied to 2D curved surfaces with few-shot fine-tuning, demonstrating its generalisation capability. Future work will develop this framework further for clinical use in PVC ablation.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at The Statistical Atlases and Computational Modeling of the Heart (STACOM) workshop 2026</details> |
| **[BengaliMCQ: Automatic Generation and Answer Prediction of Academic Multiple-Choice Questions in a Low-Resource Language](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15547v1)** | 2026-08-16 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Traditional retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) frameworks process documents without attending to their hierarchical structure, leading to poor performance, especially in low-resource languages such as Bengali. To address this, we propose a structure-aware RAG framework that models Bengali textbooks as hierarchical graphs and uses a contrastively trained graph neural network to retrieve a small set of relevant passages. These passages provide focused context for a large language model, enabling topic-specific multiple-choice question (MCQ) generation and in-domain answer prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework outperforms strong dense retrieval baselines across retrieval metrics, produces more relevant MCQs, and achieves superior answer prediction accuracy.</details> | |
| **[Learning Optimal Dynamic Matching via Graph Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.28925v2)** | 2026-08-15 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Dynamic matching markets require decisions about whom to match and when: matching now yields value but removes participants who may create better future opportunities. We develop a value-based reinforcement-learning framework for this problem on finite, evolving weighted graphs. We study an infinite-horizon continuous-time model with stochastic arrivals, node-type transitions, edge realizations, and exogenous exits. We prove an event-time reduction: without loss of optimality, the planner acts immediately after each exogenous event and then waits for the next one. We further show that the optimal edge-wise $Q$-function is characterized by a single continuation-value function on post-decision residual graphs, reducing the learned object from state-action values to graph values. Exact action selection still requires combinatorial matching optimization; we approximate the value with a graph neural network, train it by temporal-difference learning, and use it in a forward-greedy matching heuristic. In a binary-type benchmark, the learned policy substantially outperforms immediate and threshold-greedy rules by preserving common nodes for rare arrivals of valuable matches while forming lower-value matches only in thick pools. In a kidney paired donation benchmark, it performs similarly to immediate greedy when exits are unpredictable, recovers the logic of patient matching when warnings are reliable, and outperforms the better of Immediate Greedy and Patient Greedy across intermediate warning probabilities. These results show that residual-graph value learning yields state-dependent dynamic matching policies that adapt to realized connectivity and exit information.</details> | |
| **[LAGS: Low-Altitude Gaussian Splatting with Groupwise Heterogeneous Graph Learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.16910v3)** | 2026-08-15 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Low-altitude Gaussian splatting (LAGS) facilitates 3D scene reconstruction by aggregating aerial images from distributed drones. However, as LAGS prioritizes maximizing reconstruction quality over communication throughput, existing low-altitude resource allocation schemes become inefficient. This inefficiency stems from their failure to account for image diversity introduced by varying viewpoints. To fill this gap, we propose a groupwise heterogeneous graph neural network (GW-HGNN) for LAGS resource allocation. GW-HGNN explicitly models the non-uniform contribution of different image groups to the reconstruction process, thus automatically balancing data fidelity and transmission cost. The key insight of GW-HGNN is to transform LAGS losses and communication constraints into graph learning costs for dual-level message passing. Experiments on real-world LAGS datasets demonstrate that GW-HGNN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks across key rendering metrics, including PSNR, SSIM, and LPIPS. Furthermore, GW-HGNN reduces computational latency by approximately 100x compared to the widely-used MOSEK solver, achieving millisecond-level inference suitable for real-time deployment.</details> | <details><summary>8 pag...</summary>8 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables</details> |
| **[Transferable FB-GNN-MBE Framework for Potential Energy Surfaces: Data-Adaptive Transfer Learning in Deep Learned Many-Body Expansion Theory](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.09320v5)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Mechanistic understanding and rational design of complex chemical systems depend on fast and accurate predictions of electronic structures beyond individual building blocks. However, if the system exceeds hundreds of atoms, first-principles quantum mechanical (QM) modeling becomes impractical. In this study, we developed FB-GNN-MBE by integrating a fragment-based graph neural network (FB-GNN) into the many-body expansion (MBE) theory and demonstrated its capacity to reproduce first-principles potential energy surfaces (PES) for hierarchically structured systems with manageable accuracy, complexity, and interpretability. Specifically, we divided the entire system into basic building blocks (fragments), evaluated their one-fragment energies using a QM model, and addressed many-fragment interactions using the structure-property relationships trained by FB-GNNs. Our investigation shows that FB-GNN-MBE achieves chemical accuracy in predicting two-body (2B) and three-body (3B) energies across water, phenol, and mixture benchmarks, as well as the one-dimensional dissociation curves of water and phenol dimers. To transfer the success of FB-GNN-MBE across various systems with minimal computational costs and data demands, we developed and validated a teacher-student learning protocol. A heavy-weight FB-GNN trained on a mixed-density water cluster ensemble (teacher) distills its learned knowledge and passes it to a light-weight GNN (student), which is later fine-tuned on a uniform-density (H2O)21 cluster ensemble. This transfer learning strategy resulted in efficient and accurate prediction of 2B and 3B energies for variously sized water clusters without retraining. Our transferable FB-GNN-MBE framework outperformed conventional non-FB-GNN-based models and provided a scalable and accurate route toward interaction energies of large molecular assemblies.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted by The Journal of Chemical Physics. Main text: 23 pages, 11 figures, and 1 table. Supplementary Materials: 29 pages, 6 figures, 15 tables, 4 pseudo-algorithms</details> |
| **[BRAID: Learning Equilibrium Maps in Interdependent Security Games via Weight-Tied Iterative Graph Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14856v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Computing Nash equilibria in interdependent security (IDS) games on networks is computationally expensive: best-response dynamics may need hundreds of iterations per instance, and downstream tasks such as auditing, stress-testing, and incentive design often require repeatedly re-solving the game under parameter perturbations. We propose BRAID, a Best-Response Amortized Iterative Dynamics model that uses a weight-tied iterative graph neural network to learn a direct map from game parameters to Nash equilibrium effort profiles, replacing iterative best response computation with a single forward pass that is up to 43X faster per instance. BRAID is derived from the best-response fixed-point structure of IDS games: its SUM aggregation reflects additive neighbor coupling, and a weight-tied gated recurrent unit (GRU) mirrors a damped best-response update. The same architecture applies across IDS specifications that vary investment-cost curvature and neighborhood aggregation, including log-linear, quadratic-cost, and log constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) utilities. Beyond equilibrium prediction, BRAID also recovers how equilibrium efforts change under perturbations to game parameters, including costs and network edge weights. We make this sensitivity recovery an explicit evaluation target and introduce two training strategies, interior-equilibrium training and input-noise regularization, that improve the local behavior of the learned equilibrium map without using sensitivity labels. Experiments show that BRAID effectively predicts Nash equilibria and recovers equilibrium sensitivities across utility specifications and network sizes.</details> | <details><summary>20 pa...</summary>20 pages, 2 figures, Accepted at GameSec 2026</details> |
| **[Disentangling Homophily and Rarity: Explaining Failure in Graph Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14823v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Are heterophilic nodes in a graph harder to classify because they are heterophilic or because they are rare? Some existing work frames classification of such nodes as a subgroup generalisation problem, where a model performs well on the majority group at the expense of the rare group. Others explain this as a problem of neighbourhood aggregation in graph neural networks (GNNs). We assess these two viewpoints through a detailed evaluation of six GNNs on five datasets of varying homophily, and find that homophilic nodes tend to be easier to classify, even when they are rare---challenging the subgroup framing. However, our findings also nuance existing beliefs about how GNNs misrepresent heterophilic nodes. We demonstrate that the information needed to classify heterophilic nodes correctly is often recoverable by retraining the classification head of a model, or even just the final linear classification layer.</details> | <details><summary>9 pag...</summary>9 pages of main text, 33 pages total, 11 figures, 17 tables</details> |
| **[IRGNN: Efficient Invariant Radar Graph Neural Network for Radar Point Cloud Object Detection](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14394v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Perception is a fundamental component of autonomous driving systems. While LiDAR-based methods have achieved remarkable progress in object detection, their reliability can degrade under adverse weather conditions. Radar point clouds provide a robust alternative due to their resilience to bad weather and low-illumination scenarios. However, radar point clouds are typically sparse, unordered, and less informative than LiDAR data, making it challenging to directly apply existing LiDAR-based perception methods. To address these challenges, we propose IRGNN, an Invariant Radar Graph Neural Network for radar point cloud object detection. IRGNN first reconstructs radar point clouds into graph representations using translation- and rotation-invariant feature designs, enabling robust modeling of sparse radar measurements. It then employs an improved message passing neural network (MPNN) with residual connections and a virtual node layer to enhance local feature propagation and global context modeling. Finally, task-specific heads are applied to the learned graph representations for object classification and bounding box prediction. Experimental results on the RadarScenes dataset show that IRGNN outperforms existing radar-based object detection methods and achieves competitive performance. In addition, IRGNN significantly reduces computational cost and memory usage during inference, demonstrating its effectiveness and practical potential for efficient radar-based perception in autonomous driving.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at ICONIP 2026</details> |
| **[Structure-Guided Spatiotemporal Attention Graph Neural Network for Traffic Flow Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14177v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Deep spatiotemporal models integrating graph convolutions and attention mechanisms have demonstrated excellent performance in network-level traffic flow prediction, owing to their exceptional ability to capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies. Despite their predictive success, deployment of such models in safety-critical urban systems remains constrained by their inherent lack of transparency. Existing post-hoc diagnostic methods often struggle with spurious correlations and fail to unveil the intrinsic decision-making mechanisms governing traffic dynamics, resulting in suboptimal interpretability and limited operational trustworthiness. To address these challenges, this paper proposes the Structure-Guided Spatiotemporal Attention Graph Neural Network (SGSAN). Departing from traditional architectures that rely on unconstrained adaptive graphs, SGSAN explicitly learns a static Directed Dependency Graph (DDG) to identify the invariant macroscopic propagation paths of traffic states. We further introduce an InfoNCE-based soft-coupling mechanism that anchors the model's dynamic spatiotemporal attention to this structural prior, offering a mechanistic account of the model's decision-making process while ensuring robust forecasting by aligning attention-based reasoning with identified macroscopic dependencies and preventing over-reliance on ephemeral local noise. Furthermore, a decoupled two-stage optimization framework is developed to resolve the fundamental conflict between structural discovery and predictive error minimization. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that SGSAN achieves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy while providing built-in interpretability that organically aligns with the physical logic of traffic networks.</details> | |
| **[Overcoming Shortcut Learning in Graph Neural Networks through Active Explanation Guidance](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14121v1)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can solve prediction tasks by unintentionally exploiting shortcuts---that is, edges, nodes, and features that correlate with but are not causal for the prediction---which compromise their reliability in out-of-distribution tasks. We introduce XIGL, an architecture-agnostic human-in-the-loop strategy for removing such shortcuts from GNNs. Our key insight is twofold. On the one hand, reliance on shortcuts can be detected by inspecting GNN explanations. On the other hand, once made aware of such shortcuts, sufficiently expert users can provide tailored corrective feedback, which helps deconfound the model. XIGL supports any query strategy; however, since corrective feedback can be expensive to acquire, we develop an active learning strategy for prioritizing explanations that are more likely to display shortcut behavior, lowering annotation and cognitive costs. We showcase the effectiveness of XIGL, including both existing and proposed explanation-based strategies, on several GNN architectures. Our implementation is available online.</details> | |
| **[No Data? No Problem: Synthesizing Security Graphs for Better Intrusion Detection](https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.06226v4)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Provenance graph analysis plays a vital role in intrusion detection, particularly against Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs), by exposing complex attack patterns. While recent systems combine graph neural networks (GNNs) with natural language processing (NLP) to capture structural and semantic features, their effectiveness is limited by class imbalance in real-world data. To address this, we introduce PROVSYN, a novel hybrid provenance graph synthesis framework, which comprises three components: (1) graph structure synthesis via heterogeneous graph generation models, (2) textual attribute synthesis via fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs), and (3) five-dimensional fidelity evaluation. Experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that PROVSYN consistently produces higher-fidelity graphs across the five evaluation dimensions compared to four strong baselines. To further demonstrate the practical utility of PROVSYN, we utilize the synthesized graphs to augment training datasets for downstream APT detection models. The results show that PROVSYN effectively mitigates data imbalance, improving normalized entropy by up to 0.35 in absolute terms, and enhances the generalizability of downstream detection models, yielding an absolute increase of up to 0.38 in balanced accuracy.</details> | |
| **[Graph-augmented Segmentation of Complex Shapes in Laser Powder bed Fusion for Enhanced In Situ Inspection](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.24234v2)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The technological maturity of in situ inspection and monitoring methods in additive manufacturing is steadily increasing, enabling more efficient and practical qualification procedures. In this context, image segmentation of powder bed images in Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) has been investigated by various authors, leveraging both edge detection and machine learning approaches to identify deviations from nominal geometry. Despite these developments, several challenges remain, including the sensitivity of segmentation performance to industrial illumination conditions and layer-to-layer variability in pixel intensity patterns. The study addresses these limitations by proposing a graph-augmented segmentation approach. The underlying principle consists of preserving the geometrical information at a global level rather than at pixel-wise level, modeling dependencies and relational information among spatial regions with a Graph Neural Network bottleneck embedded into a U-Net architecture. This allows enhancing the consistency and accuracy of the geometry reconstruction in the presence of spatial and layer-wise photometric variability systematically faced in real data. The method is evaluated against benchmark techniques for the in situ reconstruction of lattice structures produced by L-PBF, demonstrating its potential as a scalable solution for robust in situ inspection and geometric verification in industrial environments.</details> | <details><summary>Submi...</summary>Submitted to Additive Manufacturing Frontiers</details> |
| **[SLAC: Access-Driven CPU-to-GPU Side-channel Attacks via System-Level Cache on Apple Silicon](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09075v2)** | 2026-08-14 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Modern heterogeneous System-on-Chip designs integrate CPU cores and a GPU that share a last-level cache (LLC) or system-level cache (SLC). This sharing exposes a new cross-domain attack surface, and existing attacks on integrated platforms either exploit coarse-grained cache-occupancy contention or require the adversary to co-reside on the GPU with the victim to obtain accurate timing measurements. In this work, we target Apple Silicon heterogeneous SoCs and discover that GPU memory accesses leave set-level footprints in the shared SLC, observable to an unprivileged CPU process. This keen observation enables the first fine-grained, access-driven, Prime+Probe-style CPU-to-GPU cache side-channel attacks against GPU workloads. We first reverse-engineer the Apple M1 SLC set-indexing functions and the interactions between local private caches and the SLC. Building on these findings, we construct the CPrime+CProbe SLC side-channel technique, which monitors GPU victim activity from the CPU at cache-set granularity. We then introduce an accelerated variant, GPrime+CProbe, in which an adversary leverages the GPU for faster SLC priming, yielding a 6.4x increase in the covert-channel throughput. Lastly, we demonstrate two end-to-end privacy attacks using the new side-channels: a graph-edge reconstruction attack on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) that achieves 90% edge accuracy across five datasets, and an LLM privacy attack that recovers input keywords with up to 94.8% accuracy and model responses with up to 88.9% accuracy across TinyLlama and GPT-2 Medium models. Our results reveal a new class of microarchitectural vulnerabilities in Apple Silicon and call for secure system cache designs for heterogeneous SoCs.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted to ACM CCS 2026. 15 pages</details> |
| **[HI-MeshGraphNets: Efficient and Accurate Mesh-based Physics Learning with Hierarchical Multi-scale Graph Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13827v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Machine-learned physical surrogate models have become promising alternatives to mesh-based numerical solvers. Among them, graph neural networks (GNNs) are well suited for representing simulation meshes and learning nodal state evolution through message passing. However, conventional flat message passing becomes inefficient on large, high-fidelity meshes because information propagates only one hop per layer, requiring deep processors for long-range interactions and increasing computational cost, memory usage, and the risk of over-smoothing. To address this limitation, we propose Hierarchical Interpolating MeshGraphNets (HI-MGN), a multiscale extension of MeshGraphNets for efficient long-range communication on unstructured meshes. HI-MGN replaces the flat processor with a hierarchical multiscale processor that coarsens graphs using farthest-point sampling and Voronoi partitioning while preserving the original mesh topology. Message passing on coarse graphs enables information to travel over larger geometric distances with fewer layers, and a learned graph interpolation network reconstructs fine-resolution features. Across three structural and fluid benchmarks, HI-MGN achieves improved accuracy compared with MeshGraphNets and the Bi-Stride Multi-Scale GNN while reducing training time and peak memory usage. The results show that topology-aware hierarchical message passing and learned coarse-to-fine interpolation provide an effective and practical framework for scalable mesh-based physics surrogate modeling.</details> | |
| **[Neural Message Passing on Structural Interaction Graphs for Fully-Inductive Graph Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08567v2)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>A central obstacle in building graph foundation models is the input heterogeneity in terms of feature space dimensionality, semantics, and structure. Such heterogeneity limits the capability of graph neural networks to generalize to new graphs with unseen feature spaces. We address the transferability challenge with SIGIL, a framework that maps any attributed graph to a unified representation space of fixed dimension. Given a graph, SIGIL lifts it to a structural interaction graph, where nodes are the input feature dimensions and weighted, typed edges encode feature alignment across multiple orders of the graph's connectivity. A relational message-passing network embeds each feature dimension into a shared space, transforming the original node features, of arbitrary dimensionality, into representations transferable to any downstream graph. By construction, SIGIL is equivariant to permutations of nodes, feature dimensions, and labels. Additionally, when the input features are one-hot indicators of discrete relations, SIGIL recovers and strictly generalizes existing foundation models for knowledge graph reasoning. A single SIGIL model, pretrained on one graph, delivers strong fully-inductive link prediction. Also, SIGIL can be used to implement existing knowledge graph foundation models. As such, SIGIL unifies several existing regimes in graph foundation model design under a single framework</details> | <details><summary>7 pag...</summary>7 pages, 1 figure in the main body. 12 pages, 5 figures in appendix. Submitted to AAAI 2027 (main track) and currently under review</details> |
| **[Jointly Predicting Courses and Grades Using a Transformer-Based Model](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13409v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Existing predictive models in learning analytics often treat student academic history as a simple sequence, overlooking the concurrent nature of courses taken within a semester. This simplification can lead to inaccurate performance predictions, particularly for students with heavy or challenging course loads. This paper introduces a TRansformer for Academic Course-grade Estimation (TRACE) that addresses this limitation by jointly predicting both the set of courses a student will take and their corresponding grades for an upcoming semester. Our approach encodes courses on a per-semester basis to capture the effects of course concurrency and utilizes a novel loss function combining course-set prediction with grade prediction. We demonstrate that predicting courses taken in addition to the grades in those courses leads to significant improvements in prediction quality. Trained on ten years of institutional data, our joint prediction model reduces mean absolute error by nearly 50% compared to an identical architecture that predicts grades alone. The model also outperforms traditional LSTM-based sequential models, as well as graph neural network-based approaches, and offers natural ways to incorporate student attribute data. This work demonstrates the utility of modern neural architectures for creating interpretable models that can be adapted to new institutions via retraining and recalibration, as well as the importance of key techniques, such as predicting courses taken during training. We discuss how this model could be incorporated into early detection systems at institutions of higher education.</details> | |
| **[Causal Mediation Analysis for Network Data with Graph Neural Network](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13274v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Causal mediation analysis is typically formulated under no interference, an assumption often violated in networked populations. We develop a nonparametric framework for a single large observed network that allows simultaneous treatment and mediator spillovers and high-dimensional network confounding. Exposure and mediator mappings define causal estimands without restricting the true interference mechanism, separating own from spillover effects without prespecified aggregation models. Under strengthened conditional independence conditions, we identify own controlled direct, natural direct, and natural indirect effects and give primitive sufficient conditions in terms of structural errors. We construct augmented inverse probability weighted estimators that are doubly robust for controlled effects and multiply robust for natural effects, using graph neural networks to learn high-dimensional nuisance functions from node features and the adjacency matrix. Under approximate neighborhood interference, weak network dependence, and suitable first-stage rates, we establish asymptotic normality of the effect estimators and consistency of a network HAC variance estimator. In simulations the graph neural network estimator outperforms machine learning methods built on hand-constructed neighborhood features, and a reanalysis of an agricultural insurance experiment in rural China finds insurance knowledge to be a substantive mediating channel while perception-based mediators are not.</details> | 86 pages |
| **[Novel Knowledge-Guided Generative Methods for Synthetic Transcriptomic Data](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13256v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>As biomedical research increasingly relies on data-intensive tools, the quality and utility of datasets are critical. Challenges such as imbalances, biases, and ethical or legal constraints often limit access to high-quality data. Synthetic data generation can help overcome these limitations. Here, we present a comparative analysis of generative models for transcriptomic data, investigating strategies to incorporate prior biological knowledge via gene graphs. This ensures that synthetic data capture real-world gene patterns, maintaining their usefulness for downstream tasks. In particular, we introduce and benchmark three variants of the Generative Adversarial Network. Among the alternatives, MK-TGAN - an innovative multi-kernel, Graph Neural Network-based model - stands out for its performance in terms of both the realism and utility of the generated data. Unlike other methods, MK-TGAN leverages prior knowledge graphs by exploiting graph neural networks. Our results show that prior knowledge integration strategies improve performance, and that MK-TGAN consistently produces synthetic samples with superior realism and biological plausibility.</details> | |
| **[TANGCO: Learning Topology-Aware Capacity Allocation for Overload-driven Cascading Failures](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13212v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Networked systems, from power grids to traffic networks and cloud clusters, carry loads across nodes with limited capacity. A node whose load exceeds its capacity fails and sheds its load onto its neighbors, which can trigger a system-wide cascade. We study how to allocate a fixed capacity budget across nodes to resist these cascades under local load redistribution. The problem is difficult because no optimal allocation is known, and the fail-or-survive objective is non-differentiable and piecewise constant, so exact and gradient-based optimization methods do not directly apply. We introduce TANGCO (Topology-Aware Neural Graph-Guided Capacity Optimization), which uses a graph neural network policy trained through the cascade simulator with policy-gradient learning and a heuristic anchor. We evaluate TANGCO on five synthetic graph families and five real networks spanning power, road, air, and Internet topologies. The learned policy improves on the best of four hand-designed heuristics in all 450 synthetic instances and in 40 of 45 real-network conditions, with robustness gains ranging from 1.6% to 246%. The learned policies transfer to unseen graphs within a family and partially across related topologies, and TANGCO$^{pre}$, pre-trained on synthetic graphs, matches per-network training on unseen real networks. Training scales near-linearly with graph size, and TANGCO$^{pre}$ allocates on a new network with no per-target training, matching the deployment cost of a hand-designed heuristic. Free-vector variants without the GNN, stay close to the heuristics, so the graph representation carries the gain beyond numerical search. Finally, analysis of the learned allocations identifies when local risk is sufficient, leads to an improved closed-form heuristic, and reveals the regimes where a topology-aware learned policy remains necessary.</details> | |
| **[EGRL: Edge generation-guided relation-aware learning for RNA-protein interaction prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12906v1)** | 2026-08-13 | <details><summary>Show</summary>RNA-Protein Interactions (RPIs) are critical for regulating cellular functions. While traditional wet-lab experiments for RPI detection are costly and time-consuming, Deep Learning (DL) methods provide an efficient computational alternative for RPI Prediction (RPIP). In particular, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are promising, as they naturally model RPI networks. However, existing GNN-based methods often rely on homogeneous graphs or predefined meta-paths, which limit their ability to handle data sparsity and to generalize to cold-start scenarios involving unknown molecules. To address these limitations, we propose Edge Generation-guided Relation-aware Learning (EGRL), a novel framework with several key components: implicit meta-path learning to capture relational semantics without handcrafted paths; a multi-relation-aware attention mechanism for adaptive fusion of interaction patterns; a graph generator that predicts potential ("soft") edges to support cold-start nodes; and a multi-feature fusion predictor for final interaction scoring. EGRL is jointly trained with a primary task loss and an auxiliary generator loss. Comprehensive evaluations on four benchmark datasets demonstrate that EGRL achieves competitive overall performance. More importantly, it exhibits superior generalization in cold-start settings, achieving an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.867 and an Area Under the Precision-Recall curve (AUPR) of 0.861 on unknown molecules, corresponding to improvements of 8.6% in AUROC and 5.0% in AUPR over prior state-of-the-art methods. The code will be released soon.</details> | |
| **[Exploring Oversmoothing with Householder Matrices](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12514v1)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Deep graph neural networks(GNNs) suffer from oversmoothing- a progressive collapse of node representation towards a low information subspace as network depth increases because the normalized graph propagation operator is repeatedly applied directly to the hidden representations. In this work we study Householder Graph Neural Network (HouseGNN). Rather than updating the hidden state like standard GCN, HouseGNN uses the aggregated neighbourhood message solely to estimate a reflection direction; the node embedding is then updated by a Householder reflector followed by GroupSort, yielding a piecewise orthogonal layer that preserves Euclidean norm at every node and at every depth. We prove three core properties: (i) every internal layer preserves the node-wise Euclidean norm; (ii) the Householder reflector is scale scale and sign-invariant in the message; and (iii) pairwise distance between nodes can change through mismatch between node-wise orthogonal operators.</details> | |
| **[Variational Mixture of Graph Neural Experts for Alzheimer's Disease Recognition across Frequency Bands in EEG Brain Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.11917v4)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Dementia disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD) exhibit overlapping electrophysiological signatures in electroencephalography (EEG) that challenge accurate diagnosis. Existing EEG-based methods are limited by full-band frequency analysis, which hinders precise differentiation of dementia subtypes and severity stages. To address this limitation, we propose a Variational Mixture of Graph Neural Experts (VMoGE) framework that integrates multi-band EEG analysis with variational graph neural networks and a mixture-of-experts architecture. Each expert specializes in a specific EEG frequency band and models brain connectivity using a Gaussian Markov Random Field prior, while a variational gating mechanism adaptively integrates expert outputs. This design enables the model to learn frequency-specific brain network representations while modeling latent uncertainty through variational inference. Experimental results on two EEG dementia datasets show that VMoGE achieves strong performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89 for healthy controls (HC) vs. AD classification in the main comparison and competitive results across dementia subtyping and Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) staging tasks. Clinically, VMoGE offers three key translational values: the expert gating weights correlate with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores and CDR severity, slow-wave $δ/ θ$-band contributions are associated with AD-related EEG slowing and disease progression, and spatially localized activation maps reveal posterior $θ$/$α$-band alterations and region-specific $β$-band changes, providing neurophysiologically interpretable patterns aligned with known AD neuropathology.</details> | |
| **[Faithful, Sufficient and Understandable: Rethinking Graph Counterfactual Explanations via Discrete Diffusion Inversion](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12083v1)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) achieve strong predictive performance on graph-structured data across domains such as chemistry, biology, and network analysis, yet they provide no intrinsic explanation of their predictions. This limits their adoption in high-stakes and safety-critical settings. Counterfactual explanations address this by revealing the minimal structural modifications that would change a model's prediction. On graphs, however, such a modification is hard to produce. The search space is discrete and combinatorial, and a valid answer must respect categorical node and edge types together with domain rules such as chemical valency in the case of molecular graphs. Existing explainers give up one of two things. Either edits are not held on the data manifold, or the search does not span the full edit space. We propose Graph Diffusion Counterfactual Explanation via Inversion (GDCE-I), which gives up neither. A discrete denoising diffusion model with a novel discrete inversion scheme enables distribution-aware edits leveraging the whole domain edit space. We further address the incomplete and inconsistent evaluation of graph counterfactuals by deriving a framework of explanation desiderata and applying it to every method under one shared protocol. Across four benchmarks, GDCE-I outperforms related work by a large margin on the defined framework. For the molecular domain, we further qualitatively show that GDCE-I attains interpretable in-distribution solutions.</details> | |
| **[CGRL: Causal-Guided Representation Learning for Node-Level Out-of-Distribution Generalization](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.24304v3)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) deliver strong performance on graph tasks, but their accuracy drops significantly under out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. Under distribution shifts, GNNs often fit environmental noise and spurious correlations instead of stable causal mechanisms, leading to weak OOD robustness and unstable predictive representations. Existing solutions based on environment invariance or causal reasoning are insufficient for node classification, as they do not explicitly model the fine-grained latent geometry required by the task. We further observe a training instability named Info-Jitter, where the mutual information between predictive representations and ground-truth labels fluctuates throughout training. To address these issues, we construct a node-classification-specific causal graph derived from the task's geometric objective. Using do-calculus to block non-causal paths caused by environmental noise, we derive a deconfounded interventional objective and a variational lower bound to disentangle representations into intra-class and inter-class components. We then propose Causal-Guided Representation Learning (CGRL), a framework with two core modules. First, a multi-branch re-weighted representation learning (RRL) module learns a causal modulation matrix to amplify causal signals and suppress environmental noise during message passing. Second, an optimization strategy combining intra-class aggregation, inter-class separation, energy-based reconstruction and supervised prediction regularizes the latent space for robust node-level generalization. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets show that CGRL outperforms strong baselines across various distribution shifts and effectively mitigates the Info-Jitter phenomenon.</details> | |
| **[Empowering Credit Risk Detection in Weixin Pay with Billion-Scale Deep Graph Learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.02168v2)** | 2026-08-12 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Credit risk detection, particularly mitigating individual fraud, is crucial for maintaining the stability of digital financial ecosystems. Accurately identifying credit fraud among billions of users is critical for minimizing financial losses and safeguarding the sustainability of inclusive financial services. Given that credit fraud risks are often concealed within heterogeneous user-risk graphs, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as an effective tool for risk mining by capturing complex dependencies. To address the scalability bottleneck of industrial GNNs, distributed training based on subgraphs is indispensable. However, existing strategies often compromise topological integrity for load balancing. This can be catastrophic for risk detection, as it indiscriminately severs the long-tail evidence chains essential for risk propagation. Overlapping subgraphs can restore severed risk contexts but inevitably introduce redundancy and noise, while overlooking the representation alignment across different local subgraphs. In this paper, we propose a risk-aware overlapping subgraph learning framework for large-scale credit risk detection. We first construct base partitions to ensure load balance. Then, we perform budget-constrained sampling that selects informative long-tail nodes, thereby preserving critical risk diffusion patterns while filtering out noise. To mitigate representation inconsistency, we design a cross-subgraph consistency alignment mechanism. By enforcing alignment constraints on the overlapping nodes, we harmonize the local representations into a globally consistent latent space. Extensive experiments on Weixin Pay's production dataset demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms existing strategies for risk detection, offering a scalable and effective solution for industrial graph learning.</details> | |
| **[Defending against Model Extraction for GNNs with Model Reprogramming](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11495v1)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) serve as the backbone for high-stakes applications in Machine-Learning-as-a-Service (MLaaS). Still, their black-box deployment exposes them to Model Extraction (ME) attacks, in which adversaries steal intellectual property by querying APIs. Existing defenses suffer from a critical ''Euclidean bias'': they transfer image-based strategies (e.g., random noise) to graphs, ignoring the complex topological dependencies between nodes, which often results in severe utility degradation. Passive methods like watermarking also fail to prevent theft in real time. To bridge this gap, we propose GraphRP (Graph Reprogramming Protection), a proactive defense framework that repurposes Model Reprogramming for security. Unlike static perturbations, GraphRP introduces a Structure-Aware Gating Mechanism driven by learnable topological prototypes. This creates a dynamic ''structural firewall'' that selectively modulates the model's decision boundary: it preserves fidelity for benign queries residing on the training manifold, while maximizing the Fisher Information along the perturbation direction for adversarial queries. Under standard assumptions (bounded loss, optimal attacker, and local second-order approximation), we prove a lower bound on the attacker's estimation error that increases with the structural sensitivity of the reprogramming noise. Extensive experiments on both hard-label and soft-label ME attacks demonstrate that GraphRP significantly degrades attack effectiveness while preserving benign utility.</details> | Accepted by KDD 2026 |
| **[Quantum Port-Hamiltonian Neural Networks: Learning Conservative and Dissipative Dynamics via Measurement-Induced Nonlinearity](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.12269v3)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We introduce Quantum Port-Hamiltonian Neural Networks (Q-pHNNs), parameterised quantum circuits that learn classical dynamics in a structure-preserving manner. The framework rests on the Isomorphic Hamiltonian Mapping (IHM): the skew-symmetric interconnection matrix $\mathbf{J}$ corresponds to unitary gate evolution, and the positive-semidefinite dissipation matrix $\mathbf{R}$ to Measurement-Induced NonLinearity (MINL), realised by mid-circuit measurement with classical feedforward. Conservation and passivity are then enforced by construction rather than by penalty terms, and dissipation becomes an intrinsically quantum effect: energy leaves through the act of measurement. We instantiate the IHM in three architectures: a Quantum HNN that extracts Hamilton's equations via the Parameter-Shift Rule; a Q-pHNN that dissipates through MINL; and a topology-entangled Quantum Graph Neural Network lifting both channels to $N$-node coupled-phasor networks. In simulation, where every model here was trained, we obtain $1.35\%$ relative energy drift under a symplectic integrator, $100\%$ energy monotonicity for the single-oscillator MINL circuit, and $92$--$98\%$ phase-space energy decay across ring, star and chain networks at $N\in\{3,6,9\}$. On an IBM Heron processor the trained energy surface and its parameter-shift gradients reproduce their simulated values, with an error budget dominated by readout rather than gate infidelity; the dissipative channel executes natively, but its decay is not separable from measurement back-action at these depths.</details> | |
| **[Foundations of Equivariant Deep Learning: Unifying Graph and Sheaf Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03798v4)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Symmetry is everywhere in nature and society. Geometric deep learning builds architectures respecting group symmetries, whereas topological deep learning organizes computation through cells, incidence relations, and local-to-global structure. In this paper, we extend geometric deep learning beyond simple group actions and unify it with topological deep learning. Specifically, we develop order-equivariant neural networks (OENN), which generalize standard graph message passing and sheaf neural networks via the theory of equivariant vector bundles over face posets (or face categories). We (i) characterize all linear order-equivariant maps, (ii) build OENN layers, and (iii) prove universal approximation theorems (UATs) for continuous order-equivariant maps, which are new results even when restricted to sheaf neural networks. We illustrate the framework on graph and sheaf models. Our results can also be seen as extending the known UAT for graph neural networks to a more general setting that subsumes sheaf neural networks as well. In the appendix, we show that OENN can be connected, via the action groupoid Grothendieck construction, to CENN (category-equivariant neural network), which gives the categorical general form of equivariant neural networks, allowing us to leverage categorical symmetry in data and extending geometric deep learning from groups of symmetries to categories of transformations.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at ICML 2026 as a spotlight paper with oral presentation</details> |
| **[AgForce Enables Antigen-conditioned Generative Antibody Design](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.21610v2)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Antibody design methods condition on antigen structure to generate complementarity-determining regions (CDR), yet a systematic evaluation of baseline methods reveals that they largely ignore the antigen input. We identify three failure modes that explain this behavior. Antigen blindness arises because models derive predictions from antibody framework context rather than antigen information, producing nearly identical CDRs regardless of the target. Vocabulary collapse reduces predicted amino acids to three to five per position, far below the ground truth distribution in native sequences. The argmax bottleneck on the cross-entropy loss via greedy decoding acts as a null predictor that sees only position and loop length and recovers almost all the residues irrespective of the model architecture and the target antigen. We propose a novel encoder-decoder architecture called AgForce that uses a graph neural network (GNN) as the encoder and specialized decoders for sequence-structure co-design. Specifically, we apply framework dropout, gated bottlenecks, and hyperbolic cross attention that prevent the antibody shortcut path. In the decoder, a Mixture Density Network (MDN) sequence head with Potts-like pairwise coupling and annealed Multiple Choice Learning (aMCL) replaces the cross-entropy objective with a multi-component distribution. An antigen cycle consistency head routes gradients through the sequence decoder, forcing predicted distributions to encode antigen identity. On the ChiMERa-Bench dataset, AgForce leads the baselines on every interface metric on all three splits (fnat, iRMSD, DockQ, and epitope F1) together with structure and sequence, while achieving roughly a 2x larger effective vocabulary compared to the GNN baselines.</details> | |
| **[3D Weighted Geometric Graph Neural Networks for Sheep Facial Pain Assessment](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11050v1)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Deep learning systems perform mainly within the 2D for a single image domain and take the face as a single-dimension representation, losing sight of the 3D anatomy of sheep and cross-landmark spatial relationships that are intrinsic to the clinically proven Sheep Pain Facial Expression Scale (SPFES). This paper presents the \textbf{3D Sheep Pain Facial Expression System (3D-SPFES)}, a novel, monocular depth-aware geometric graph neural network system that integrates each SPFES facial landmark, such as the ears, eyes, and nose, into 3D Euclidean space estimated from a single RGB camera by using VideoDepthAnything, thus preventing the need for specialized depth hardware. Each landmark node includes a feature vector containing its 3D spatial coordinates, estimated surface normal, and facial attribute class embedding. Edges linked to nodes are assigned weights based on an aggregate metric that combines both Euclidean distance and surface co-planarity in a 3D space. A Weighted Geometric Graph Neural Network (WG-GNN) studies this graph using $\mathcal{K} = 3$ geometry-aware message-passing layers enhanced by a scaled dot-product attention method that selectively enhances anatomically relevant inter-landmark messages. The resultant node embeddings are combined into $\mathcal{O} = 3$ pain-level clusters and integrated into a Normalized Pain Score (NPS) within the range of $[0, 100%]$ a confidence-weighted, SPFES-derived scoring method.</details> | |
| **[Lost in Aggregation: On a Fundamental Expressivity Limit of Message-Passing Graph Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.14846v4)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We define an information-complexity property for aggregation functions, capturing a vast range of practical aggregations, and prove that any Message-Passing Graph Neural Network (MP-GNN) model with such aggregations induces only a polynomial number of equivalence classes on all graphs - while the number of non-isomorphic graphs is super-exponential (in number of vertices). Adding a familiar perspective, we observe that merely 2 iterations of Color Refinement (CR) induce at least an exponential number of equivalence classes, making the aforementioned MP-GNNs relatively infinitely weaker. Previous studies state that sum-aggregation MP-GNNs match full CR however they consider a weak, 'non-uniform', notion of distinguishing-power where each graph size may require a different MP-GNN to distinguish graphs up to that size. Our results concern both distinguishing between non-equivariant vertices and distinguishing between non-isomorphic graphs.</details> | |
| **[ECHO: A Locally-Deployable Agentic Health Assistant with Temporal Memory, Safety Guardrails, and Speech Assessment](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06110v2)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>This paper presents ECHO (Enhanced Care & Health Observer), a locally-deployable conversational health assistant for long-term chronic care management. ECHO integrates three complementary software modules developed under shared supervision as a unified system. The core module is an agentic chatbot built on a ReAct loop orchestrated via LangGraph, equipped with 17 clinical tools and a temporal knowledge graph for persistent cross-session memory; it achieves a 94.9% tool-execution pass rate across a 59-scenario benchmark with GPT-5 Mini. A two-stage hybrid safety layer intercepts all incoming queries: a rule-based layer handles explicit crisis signals and jailbreak attempts in under 1ms, while a signed graph neural network (GNN) with APPNP-style propagation classifies boundary cases by clinical intent, achieving 88.8% accuracy and 90.6% unsafe recall on a 2,537-query annotated Turkish health dataset while outperforming zero-shot LLM baselines including Llama 3.3 70B. A multimodal speech assessment module combining Whisper acoustic encoding and BERT text encoding with cross-attention fusion estimates emotion, depression, and pain, reaching a mean macro F1 of 0.652. The full system is implemented as a web application that can run entirely on consumer hardware, with no patient data transmitted to external services, supporting compliance with GDPR and KVKK.</details> | 5 pages |
| **[Secure Cooperative THz ISAC via Mamba Empowered Graph Neural Network Precoding](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10467v1)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The terahertz (THz) band offers abundant spectrum resources for high-throughput communication and ultra high-precision localization. This paper investigates secure communication in cooperative THz orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) bistatic integrated sensing and communications (ISAC) systems, where multiple base stations (BSs) equipped with extremely large-scale antenna arrays (ELAAs) collaboratively serve downlink users while concurrently locating multiple targets. Malicious targets are assumed to act as potential eavesdroppers attempting to intercept confidential information intended for legitimate users. To mitigate these threats, we formulate a joint optimization problem for analog beamforming, digital precoding, true-time delayers (TTDs), and sensing signal covariance matrix design. The objective is to maximize the minimum secrecy rate subject to Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) constraints that ensure localization accuracy. This problem is highly challenging due to the non-convex CRB constraint, strongly coupled variables, high computational complexity from ELAA, and near-field channel modeling. To address these challenges, we propose a novel data-driven framework that integrates graph neural networks (GNNs) with the Mamba architecture. Our proposed framework first encodes the interactions among users, targets, and BSs into a heterogeneous graph and then employs message passing to optimize vertex features. The Mamba blocks further enhance this process through their selection mechanism and state space modeling capabilities, enabling dynamic and context-aware optimization of beamforming, TTD configurations, and sensing parameters. Numerical simulations validate that the proposed method outperforms both conventional and learning-based baselines, while offering high computational efficiency and strong generalization across different network conditions.</details> | |
| **[RankFormer: A Propose-then-Select Transformer for Multi-Agent Multimodal Trajectory Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07126v3)** | 2026-08-11 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Predicting traffic agent trajectories plays an important role in autonomous driving, traffic operations, transportation safety analysis, etc. Although many deep learning algorithms are devised to predict future agent trajectories, the trajectory prediction problem is still challenging due to the complexity of decision-making process, interactions with surrounding vehicles, and the existence of multiple possible intentions for the traveling agents even under similar scenarios. Most existing methods are limited by the requirement of graph structures (e.g., Graph Neural Network) or the requirement of manually labeled intentions. In this study, we propose a pure Transformer-based deep learning model for multi-modal trajectory prediction considering temporal dependencies and agent-agent spatial interactions. After encoding the historical trajectories, two parallel decoders are employed to generate trajectories and probabilities on separate decoder tracks. The model is evaluated on two real-world datasets, one highway dataset and the other pedestrian dataset with solid performance. One important insight is that following a ``propose-then-select'' strategy, the agent-agent spatial interactions are only considered for probability estimation instead of trajectory generation. In summary, the proposed model provides a potential direction to design more robust and effective multi-modal trajectory prediction models.</details> | 11 pages, 5 figures |
| **[A Graph Neural Network--Guided Genetic Algorithm for Physical Internet Supply Chain Optimization under Cost Uncertainty](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10245v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Inventory and distribution planning in Physical Internet networks requires coordinating factory-hub assignments, factory supply, lateral transshipment among collaborative hubs, retailer deliveries, and shortages. The problem combines discrete assignment decisions with interdependent continuous flows, while uncertain operating costs make robust planning more difficult. This study formulates deterministic and min-max regret models for a three-echelon network of factories, hubs, and retailers and develops a graph neural network-guided genetic algorithm (GNN-GA) for the assignment decisions. The GNN estimates hub-specific factory-selection probabilities that are used to construct the initial GA population and adapt mutation according to prediction uncertainty. Each previously unseen candidate assignment is evaluated by solving the remaining continuous-flow problem to LP optimality. Simulated annealing, a standard GA, and GNN-GA are compared on 15 instances using matched random seeds and fixed limits on distinct assignment evaluations. Because the evaluation budgets for test Instances 13-15 are smaller than the nominal population size, these experiments primarily assess the quality of learned initialization rather than multi-generation evolutionary search. A separate 400-evaluation experiment on exact test Instance 13 permits three complete offspring generations and a partial fourth pass, with GNN-GA outperforming GA in all 10 matched runs. Three independently generated exact-solvable instances provide a separate test of transfer. Ablation results show that learned initialization provides most of the improvement, while entropy-guided mutation has a smaller, instance-dependent effect. Per-instance solution times include GNN inference and search but exclude model training and one-time model setup.</details> | 6 pages |
| **[Learning to Triage Vulnerability Reports from Program Analysis: An Empirical Study in Node.js](https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.20739v2)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Program analysis tools often produce large volumes of candidate vulnerability reports that require costly manual review, creating a practical challenge: how can security analysts prioritize the reports most likely to be true vulnerabilities? This paper investigates whether machine learning can be applied to prioritizing vulnerabilities reported by program analysis tools. We focus on Node$.$js packages and collect a benchmark of 1,883 Node$.$js packages, each containing one reported ACE or ACI vulnerability. We evaluate a variety of machine learning approaches, including classical models, graph neural networks (GNNs), large language models (LLMs), and hybrid models that combine GNNs and LLMs, trained on data derived from program analysis tool outputs (NodeMedic-FINE in our case study). The top LLM achieves $F_{1}{=}0.915$, while the best provenance-graph-based method achieves $F_{1}{=}0.904$. On the reports that the upstream tool flags but cannot automatically confirm, at a target of recovering 90% of the exploitable reports, the leading model eliminates 75% of the benign reports from manual review. If the best model is tuned to operate at a precision level of 0.8 (i.e., allowing 20% false positives among all warnings), our approach can report 99.2% of exploitable taint flows while missing only 0.8%, demonstrating strong potential for real-world vulnerability triage.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at the 41st IEEE/ACM International Conference on Automated Software Engineering (ASE 2026). The version of record is available at https://doi.org/10.1145/3832783.3837503</details> |
| **[Implicit Virtual Leader: Decentralized Vision-Only Relative Pose Estimation for Multi-Robot Formations](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.15708v2)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Classical leader-follower formation control suffers from single points of failure and error propagation, and relies on absolute localization sensors that are ill-suited for GPS-denied environments. We present a learned, vision-only estimator that maps each robot's monocular image, together with messages exchanged over a communication graph, directly to its 6-DoF relative pose. Its key ingredient is the implicit virtual leader (IVL): a non-physical reference frame at the team centroid, implicitly learned inside a Transformer-based graph neural network, so that estimation has no privileged node and needs no absolute localization. The estimator additionally reports well-calibrated aleatoric (heteroscedastic GNLL) uncertainty alongside epistemic (MC~Dropout) uncertainty, compared systematically across simulation and real-world test sets. Trained only in simulation, the estimator generalizes to unseen scenes, to larger unseen team sizes, and to an external real-world benchmark. It exhibits no single point of failure: removing any one robot costs at most $1.24\times$ the median removal, and removing $71\%$ of the communication links costs $1.77\times$ in position error without retraining. Trained on real-robot data from a single platform, it transfers without modification to a heterogeneous team, estimating relative pose to $0.22$\,m and $1.6^\circ$ on physical robots, where it drives closed-loop formation control.</details> | |
| **[LEED: Local Embedding Evolution Distance for over-smoothing estimation and virtual node selection in GNN](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09596v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) suffer from two fundamental limitations: over-smoothing, where node representations become indistinguishable with depth, and over-squashing, where long-range information is compressed through limited message-passing channels. Existing metrics such as Dirichlet energy provide global characterizations of over-smoothing but lack the resolution to analyze node-level behavior and guide architectural improvements. In this paper, we propose LEED (Local Embedding Evolution Distance), a novel local metric that quantifies over-smoothing by tracking the evolution of individual node embeddings across layers. By operating at the node level, LEED enables fine-grained analysis of representation dynamics during training, revealing heterogeneous over-smoothing patterns that are invisible to global energy-based measures. This locality induces informative node importance scores, interpreted as embedding-driven centrality measures. We leverage LEED to design a more efficient strategy for virtual node selection. Unlike existing approaches that depend on multiple heuristic centrality measures, our method uses LEED as a unique criterion to guide the construction of Local Virtual Nodes to mitigate over-squashing. Experiments show that LEED provides more informative diagnostics than Dirichlet energy while preserving global evaluation, and enables more effective virtual node integration, improving GNN performance across datasets.</details> | 10 pages, journal |
| **[Leveraging Teleconnections with Physics-Informed Graph Attention Networks for Long-Range Extreme Rainfall Forecasting in Thailand](https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.12328v7)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Accurate rainfall forecasting, particularly for extreme events, remains a significant challenge in climatology and the Earth system. This paper presents novel physics-informed Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) combined with extreme-value analysis techniques to improve gauge-station rainfall predictions across Thailand. The model leverages a graph-structured representation of gauge stations to capture complex spatiotemporal patterns, and it offers explainability through teleconnections. We preprocess relevant climate indices that potentially influence regional rainfall. The proposed Graph Attention Network with Long Short-Term Memory (Attention-LSTM) applies the attention mechanism using initial edge features derived from simple orographic-precipitation physics formulation. The embeddings are subsequently processed by LSTM layers. To address extremes, we perform Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) mapping using the novel Spatial Season-aware Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) method, which overcomes limitations of traditional machine-learning models. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms well-established baselines across most regions, including areas prone to extremes, and remains strongly competitive with the state of the art. Compared with the operational forecasting system SEAS5, our real-world application improves extreme-event prediction and offers a practical enhancement to produce high-resolution maps that support decision-making in long-term water management.</details> | |
| **[N2NMatcher: Towards Inlining-Resilient Binary Decomposition and Module Matching](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10043v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Program-level Binary Code Similarity Analysis (BCSA) aims to identify semantically similar code regions across binary programs, serving as a fundamental technique for software plagiarism detection, vulnerability search, and malware analysis. Existing approaches often decompose binaries into modules following the structure of function call graphs (FCGs) and then match these modules by their contained functions. However, function inlining changes both FCG structures and binary function semantics, making existing decomposition and module matching methods less effective. In this work, we propose N2NMatcher, an inlining-resilient framework for binary decomposition and module matching. We first conduct an empirical study to examine whether binaries still contain functions that provide stable module boundaries across compilation settings. N2NMatcher learns to predict such functions as anchors using a hierarchical graph neural network that encodes binary ACFG-FCG representations built from opcode sequences, control-flow structures, and FCG calling context. It then performs anchor-bounded decomposition and matches the generated modules using learned module graph embeddings. Experimental results show that N2NMatcher improves both the decomposition quality and module matching accuracy compared to existing works, enabling more effective program-level BCSA.</details> | |
| **[An Explainable GNN Framework for Component-Level Anomaly Diagnosis](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09246v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Industrial processes are complex systems composed of multiple interacting sensors that generate multivariate time series (MTS). Detecting anomalies in such systems is critical for reliability and safety, yet understanding their origin is equally important. Existing Graph Neural Network (GNN)based methods for anomaly detection primarily focus on sensor-level deviations and either attribute anomalies directly to the deviating sensors. When diagnosis is attempted, generally, the most deviated sensor is identified as a root cause of a system fault. However, in many industrial systems, anomalies do not arise from faulty sensors but from disruptions in the influences governing the system dynamics. We propose an explainable GNN-based anomaly detection framework that shifts the perspective from sensor-level anomalies to component-level diagnosis, hypothesizing that anomalous measurements are symptoms of altered inter-sensor influences. Experiments show that the method effectively identifies and prioritizes the true faulty components, providing interpretable insights into system failures.</details> | |
| **[A Physics-Inspired Classical Digital Twin of Cortical Dynamics: A Band-Stratified Metriplectic Port-Hamiltonian Neural Network Learned from Brain-Computer-Interface EEG](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.10439v4)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>We present a physics-inspired classical digital twin of brain-computer- interface (BCI) data: a graph neural network constrained to a band-stratified, metriplectic port-Hamiltonian form, with parameters learned from scalp EEG recorded during rest and motor imagery. The port-Hamiltonian structure is a modelling choice - it buys passivity, a certified steady-state power balance, and a clean separation of storage, routing and dissipation - not a claim about what the brain is. The state pairs each channel's instantaneous phase with its angular frequency, and stored energy decomposes over the five canonical frequency bands. A phase-locking prior measured from the same recordings gates the learned connectome, and a metriplectic formulation places the twin at a non- equilibrium steady state sustained by a metabolic port. Fitted to $1{,}109{,}250$ phasor samples from the PhysioNet EEG Motor Movement/Imagery database under a leakage-free split, the twin reaches a held-out reconstruction error of $1.30\times10^{-4}$. Scored free-running against invariants it did not author, the verdict is mixed: it reproduces near-critical avalanche branching ($σ\approx1$) but not the aperiodic $1/f$ slope or the long-range temporal correlations of the recordings. Skew-symmetry and non-negative dissipation hold by construction rather than by penalty, making the twin a structure-preserving substrate on which closed-loop neuromodulation can be designed and tested.</details> | |
| **[HOPPER: Learnable Hop Extraction for Linearized Graph Sequence Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09031v1)** | 2026-08-10 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph neural networks typically propagate information through repeated message-passing layers, coupling the distance over which information travels with the number of nonlinear transformations applied. This coupling can make deep architectures difficult to optimize and can lead to over-smoothing, over-squashing, and the loss of long-range information. Linearized Graph Sequence Models (LGSMs) address this issue by separating information depth from processing depth and treating the successive propagation states of each node as a sequence. However, existing LGSMs construct these sequences using fixed graph operators, limiting their ability to adapt propagation to the input graph, node features, and downstream task. We introduce HOPPER, an end-to-end learnable extension of LGSM that learns how hop sequences should be extracted before they are processed by a modern state-space model. Our framework supports feature-conditioned, structure-aware, graph- and hop-adaptive propagation mechanisms while preserving permutation equivariance. Standard adjacency-based and non-backtracking LGSM sequences arise as special cases of our proposed extractor family. We show that HOPPER is state-of-the-art or competitive across the ECHO-Synth benchmark, and that varying the maximum neighborhood size of message backtracking cancellation (i.e. structural memory window) can optimize accuracy on the LRIM physics-based long-range dependency benchmark. These results demonstrate that learnable sequence extraction provides a flexible and effective approach to long-range graph representation learning.</details> | <details><summary>24 pa...</summary>24 pages, 1 figure, 4 tables</details> |
| **[Estimating Condition Number with Graph Neural Networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.10277v5)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>In this paper, we propose a fast method for estimating the condition number of sparse matrices using graph neural networks (GNNs). For efficient deployment of GNNs, we introduce a graph feature construction with $\mathrm{O}(\mathrm{nnz} + n)$ complexity, where $\mathrm{nnz}$ is the number of non-zero elements in the matrix and $n$ denotes the matrix dimension. We propose two schemes for estimating the matrix condition number using GNNs; one follows by decomposing the condition number and predicts the relatively more computationally intensive part $\|\mathbf{A}^{-1}\|$, without explicitly forming the inverse, while the other is to predict the whole condition number $κ$. Our approach can be extended to an arbitrary norm. Extensive experiments are conducted for the estimation of the 1-norm and 2-norm condition numbers, which show that our method achieves a significant speedup over the traditional numerical estimation methods. Our software for GNN condition number estimator is made publicly available at https://github.com/inEXASCALE/sparse-kappa.</details> | |
| **[Exploring Sparse Matrix Multiplication Kernels on the Cerebras CS-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.27985v2)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>In recent years, novel AI accelerators have emerged as promising alternatives to GPUs for AI model training and inference. One such accelerator, the Cerebras CS-3, has demonstrated strong performance on machine learning as well as scientific applications, such as molecular dynamics and seismic simulations. While the benefits of Cerebras systems for dense workloads have been well demonstrated, their potential for sparse workloads is not yet understood, particularly for large matrices that cannot fit on the device when represented in dense format. Yet, many applications, such as linear solvers and graph neural networks, rely on large sparse matrices. In this work, we make a step toward a better understanding of the use of CS-3 platforms for sparse operations. To this end, we explore two key sparse linear algebra kernels, sparse-dense matrix multiplication (SpMM) and sampled dense-dense matrix multiplication (SDDMM), on the Cerebras CS-3. We propose low-level CS-3 designs for these operations and optimize them to improve I/O performance, memory footprint, and scalability to large matrices. We evaluate speedup relative to the CPU. The results show that our CS-3 kernels can outperform the CPU by up to 100$\times$ for SpMM on 90\% sparse matrices, with performance improving as matrix dimensionality increases. SDDMM on the CS-3 can outperform the CPU by up to 20$\times$ on 90\% sparse matrices. However, as sparsity increases beyond 99\%, our kernels suffer performance degradation, approaching the performance of state-of-the-art CPU libraries or even underperforming them.</details> | |
| **[ML-Based Hierarchical Prediction for Practical Energy Scheduling in Dynamic NTN-WPT Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08804v1)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>With advancements in long-distance wireless power transfer (WPT) and space-based energy technologies, integrating WPT into non-terrestrial networks (NTNs), referred to as NTN-WPT, is emerging as a promising approach for next-generation wireless networks. This paper proposes an energy-scheduling approach that jointly optimizes energy efficiency, task completion rate, and task waiting time for power transfer from low Earth orbit satellites to terrestrial mobile user devices (UDs). To address scheduling challenges caused by satellite and UD mobility and channel uncertainty from stochastic propagation effects, we decompose the problem into three subproblems within a three-layer predictive framework: 1) a state prediction layer forecasts UD and satellite states; 2) an interaction mapping layer uses a graph neural network (GNN) to model energy transfer efficiency; and 3) a decision-making layer determines the energy allocation plan. Distinct machine learning (ML) methods are tailored to each layer. To balance the competing objectives, we adopt a multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) technique that scalarizes them into a weighted-sum reward, transforming the multi-objective problem into a tractable single-objective problem. We further introduce a multi-agent deep learning model integrating self-attention with multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO) to improve objective balancing. Simulation results show that the proposed approach achieves a better overall trade-off than baseline methods, maintaining competitive task completion rates and energy efficiency while reducing task waiting times, and remains robust under highly variable conditions.</details> | 21 pages, 11 figures |
| **[Temperature-Driven Sequential Modeling for the Prediction of Annual Power Conversion Efficiency Profiles of Organic Photovoltaic Materials: Douala Case Study](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11261v1)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Organic photovoltaic (OPV) materials are promising candidates for distributed solar energy in tropical regions, yet existing virtual screening tools report static power conversion efficiency (PCE) values at standard testing conditions (STC) that fail to capture the temperature-driven performance degradation experienced under real deployment conditions. Here we introduce a Climate-Native computational framework that forecasts the annual PCE profile of OPV donor molecules under geographically realistic operating conditions. The framework combines GFN2-xTB molecular dynamics with an equivariant graph neural network surrogate ($268$ Neyman-stratified CEP molecules; $120,600$ training geometries; $\sim 1050\times$ speedup over explicit quantum chemistry) and sequential deep learning models trained on annual time series anchored in NASA POWER climate data for Douala, Cameroon, and validated by zero-shot transfer to Yaoundé and Maroua. Applied to $\sim 30,000$ molecules from the Harvard Clean Energy Project (CEP) and validated against $350$ HOPV15 experimental device measurements, the framework demonstrates that sequential models trained on full molecular dynamics trajectories outperform time-averaged baselines ($35\%$-$48\%$ relative MAE improvement over static baselines), confirming that thermal conformational dynamics carry information beyond mean geometry. We further introduce a seasonal stability score that reranks OPV candidates by performance consistency under tropical conditions, identifying molecules whose deployment suitability differs substantially from their static PCE ranking.</details> | <details><summary>12 pa...</summary>12 pages, 5 figures and 2 tables</details> |
| **[ArtifactLinker: Linking Scientific Artifacts for Automatic State-of-the-Art Discovery](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.16902v2)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Scientific artifacts such as models and datasets are foundations for research. With the rapid growth of platforms like HuggingFace, researchers now have access to a large number of artifacts. Yet, a key challenge remains: how can we automatically discover the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model for a given dataset by fully leveraging existing artifacts? We formalize this task as automatic SOTA discovery by modeling HuggingFace as an artifact graph, where nodes are models/datasets and edges represent evaluations. We propose ArtifactLinker, a two-stage framework: (1) ranking promising unobserved model--dataset links using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) or graph-augmented Large Language Models (LLMs), and (2) verifying top-ranked links via coding experiments with LLM-based agents. We further introduce a benchmark named ArtifactBench with 14,053 artifacts and 51,337 relations to evaluate the performance of both stages. Results show that (1) graph structures between existing artifacts are effective for missing link prediction; (2) end-to-end ranking and verification with ArtifactLinker help discover potential SOTA results and research insights.</details> | 10 pages |
| **[Can Graph Learning Learn Circuits?](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08536v1)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Circuit localization is a mechanistic interpretability task whose goal is to identify a sparse subgraph of a transformer's computation graph sufficient to reproduce a particular behavior. Most established methods localize circuits independently for each model--task pair. We instead frame circuit localization as a graph machine learning problem in which the edges of a computation graph represent computational pathways, and graph neural networks (GNNs) model interactions among these pathways. We introduce Graph Circuit Learning (GCL), a supervised, amortized framework that trains a GNN across multiple model--task pairs and applies it to unseen cases. To provide sufficient data, we augment the InterpBench benchmark with additional cases derived from the TracrBench programs. Of the 14 evaluated GCL configurations, the highest scored a median edge AUROC of $0.902$ (interquartile interval $[0.861, 0.942]$) on the 16 original held-out InterpBench cases. This is close to the published InterpBench median of $0.910$ for EAP-IG while remaining below ACDC's $0.959$. Removing all message-passing edges reduces the median to $0.825$. We also adapt PGExplainer, a GNN explainability method, to circuit localization, obtaining a median edge AUROC of $0.858$ on the same cases. These preliminary results suggest that graph machine learning offers a natural and potentially powerful perspective on circuit localization, and we hope this perspective encourages closer exchange between the two communities.</details> | |
| **[Rethinking Learning-Based Influence Maximization: Simple Neural Surrogates and Native Discrete Search](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08406v1)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Existing learning-based influence maximization frameworks rely heavily on complex neural architectures and continuous optimization over seed representations. We challenge this paradigm with SIMBA, a diffusion-model-agnostic framework pairing a lightweight neural surrogate with direct discrete search. SIMBA introduces three key components: 1) uniformly anchored node embeddings that eliminate initialization noise and encourage learning driven by graph topology and diffusion pattern, 2) a shallow two-layer graph neural network surrogate predicting final infection states, and 3) batched multi-swap simulated annealing that explores combinatorial seed space without gradients or continuous relaxation. By shifting compute from complex representation learning to effective discrete search, SIMBA drastically cuts time-to-solution while achieving superior influence spread and data efficiency. Our code is available at https://github.com/yl489/rethink-IM.</details> | |
| **[Multilevel Graph Wavelet Compressed Sensing with Scale-Aware Neural Recovery](https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.20857v2)** | 2026-08-09 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Scientific machine learning methods such as neural operators and physics-informed neural networks have advanced engineering applications and inverse problems, but their training typically requires large volumes of simulated data. This makes data preparation and model training expensive. We propose Graph Wavelet Compressed Sensing (GWCS), a learning-based framework for offline compression of graph signals by representing them as sparse, interpretable wavelet-domain representations using the spectral graph wavelet transform. The framework combines a nonparametric multilevel importance sampler, which retains high-energy wavelet coefficients within each scale for a given compression ratio, with a scale-aware graph neural network that reconstructs the signal from the sparse coefficients. We evaluate the proposed framework on synthetic approximately band-limited graph signals over random graphs and four PDE simulation datasets over meshes, which include Turbulent Radiative Layer, Viscoelastic Instability, Kolmogorov Flow, and Dynamic Stall. We compare against graph signal sampling methods and graph autoencoder baselines. Results demonstrate that the framework achieves high reconstruction fidelity and substantial data compression compared to existing benchmarks.</details> | |
| **[Hybrid spatial-temporal graph neural network Powered NDTs:Towards Next-Gen Smart Infrastructure Twins](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08306v1)** | 2026-08-08 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Network Digital Twins (NDTs) enable proactive network management and optimization by predicting system behavior before control actions are applied to live infrastructures, supporting critical operations in Internet Service Provider (ISP) networks and wide-area networks (WANs). However, to anchor the superior performance NDTs promise to provide, key enabler techniques are required. Given that mobile networks are modeled as graphs, graph-based architectures such as graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown promising performance in modeling network behavior. This work proposes a novel Hybrid Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network (HSTGNN) architecture. Unlike single-branch GNN approaches, we propose a multi-scale design that combines three complementary message-passing paradigms: local neighborhood aggregation, spectral filtering, and learnable attention-based weighting. When benchmarked against other approaches, the proposed HSTGNN achieved superior performance delivering a coefficient of determination score of approximately 0.8816, 17.5\% better than the best baseline ChebNet. Furthermore, HSTGNN achieved the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.0300, and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.0458, significantly outperforming baseline frameworks and certifying the proposed framework's capability in enabling NDTs.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted at IEEE GLOBECOM 2026</details> |
| **[Placing Degree Scales After LayerNorm](https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14022v3)** | 2026-08-08 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used to learn node-selection policies on graphs, and most stack graph attention (GAT) blocks with LayerNorm. On degree-sensitive tasks, LayerNorm tends to remove the degree signal these models need to rank nodes. Much recent work addresses this by redesigning normalizers or aggregators, which changes what these components compute but does not ask where, relative to LayerNorm, a degree scale should be applied. In this paper, we show that the answer follows from a single algebraic fact about LayerNorm. When a positive per-node scale is applied before LayerNorm, LayerNorm divides it out, and it never reaches the model's output. Applied after LayerNorm, the same scale comes through and reaches the score head as magnitude. From this placement rule we derive PostDeg, a parameter-free inverse-degree scale that we add as the single change to a fixed GAT backbone. PostDeg multiplies each node's normalized representation by an inverse function of its degree, and we compare it against controls in the same position. At every evaluation size, PostDeg improves over the LayerNorm backbone on influence maximization, network dismantling, and maximum independent set, and these controls show where the improvement comes from. The same scale before LayerNorm stays at the backbone, as the absorption identity predicts, and a constant scale after LayerNorm stays there too on all but the most heavy-tailed graphs, so the effect needs both the position after LayerNorm and a degree-dependent scale. The exact form of the scale matters much less, so we recommend PostDeg, which needs no tuning.</details> | |
| **[LGNNIC: Acceleration of Large-Scale GNN Training using SmartNICs](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07733v1)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are widely used across domains such as natural sciences, social network analysis, chip design, and recommendation systems. However, as graph sizes grow, storing and processing them entirely on a single-node CPU-GPU system becomes increasingly impractical. A promising approach is to distribute the graph across multiple remote memory nodes, though this introduces a major bottleneck: inter-node network congestion during training. To address this, we propose LGNNIC, a novel inter-node system architecture that leverages SmartNICs co-located with remote memory nodes-a configuration already available in modern systems-to reduce communication overhead in distributed GNN training. LGNNIC offloads key preprocessing tasks to SmartNICs, reducing the volume of data transferred to computational (training) nodes and alleviating network congestion. We introduce two complementary techniques executed on the SmartNICs during the preprocessing phase: Neighbor Sampling, which performs mini-batch sampling, and Quantization of the sampled batches. To evaluate LGNNIC under different communication infrastructures, we designed both an optimized low-overhead DMA-based synchronization mechanism and a high-overhead socket-based alternative used as a benchmark. We evaluate the core SmartNIC offloading mechanisms across standard GNN workloads and sampling hyperparameters using a proof-of-concept (PoC) system comprising one remote-memory node with an NVIDIA BlueField-2 SmartNIC and one compute node with an A100 GPU. Both Neighbor Sampling and Quantization on the remote node demonstrated substantial training speedups in most configurations. Neighbor Sampling achieved up to 62.4x and 17.5x speedups with Sockets and DOCA-DMA, respectively, primarily due to reduced data transaction time. Quantization provided additional speedups of up to 3.6x and 1.3x, respectively, by reducing data transfer.</details> | 14 pages, 5 figures |
| **[When GNNs Fail: Quantifying and Overcoming Temporal Correlation Volatility in Time Series](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07333v1)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction. Recent advances in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated strong perfor- mance by assuming a static graph topology and aggregating information from neighboring series. In this work, we investigate the representa- tional power of GNNs for forecasting under both static and dynamic settings (i.e., when pairwise correlations evolve drastically over time) and identify critical limitations in current architectures. To formalize this, we first propose Temporal Correlation Volatility (TCV), a model- agnostic metric designed to quantify the distributional evolution of these latent structures. We establish a clear connection between TCV and performance degradation, demonstrating that many popular models, including Transformers, generalize poorly in high-TCV settings and are often outperformed by simple structure-agnostic baselines. To address these limitations, we propose Graph Layer for Inference in Dynamic En- vironments (GLIDE), a novel GNN layer enhanced by two theoretically grounded design mechanisms: (D1) Path-based Message Passing, which captures path-based neighborhoods and (D2) Static and Dynamic Propagation Separation, which identifies optimal dynamics via local static approximation. These components significantly improve learning under dynamic topology while preserving robustness in static scenarios. Ex- tensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that GLIDE improves average performance by up to 45.6% across static and dynamic settings, with the largest gain reaching 85.7%. The source code is available at https://github.com/ChenS676/GLIDE.</details> | <details><summary>6 fig...</summary>6 figures, 3 tables, 16 pages</details> |
| **[Fluid-DiT: Graph-Free Diffusion Transformers for Fluid Flow Simulations Learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07161v1)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Simulating complex fluid flows requires capturing full equilibrium distributions rather than just mean trajectories, yet high-fidelity solvers remain computationally prohibitive. Recent advances, such as Diffusion Graph Networks (DGNs), have combined diffusion models with graph neural networks to sample equilibrium states directly from unstructured meshes, enabling distributional accuracy even from short simulations. However, graph-based diffusion approaches suffer from hand-crafted architectural constraints, limited receptive fields in message passing, and costly multi-scale designs, which restrict scalability to larger and more complex domains. We propose Fluid-DiT, a Graph-Free Diffusion Transformer that replaces graph message passing with attention-based denoising, eliminating explicit graph design while preserving the ability to model distributions of chaotic flows. Our framework introduces a latent-space formulation that disentangles geometric fidelity from distributional learning, reducing high-frequency artifacts and accelerating sampling. By leveraging the transformer's global receptive field, Fluid-DiT naturally captures both local flow structures and long-range correlations without requiring hierarchical graph coarsening. On canonical benchmarks including laminar cylinder wakes, ellipse-flow systems, and turbulent 3D wing experiments, Fluid-DiT consistently outperforms graph-based diffusion baselines in both sample quality and distributional accuracy, achieving higher $R^2$ correlations and lower Wasserstein distances. Moreover, it generalizes robustly from short, incomplete trajectories to unseen Reynolds numbers and geometries, demonstrating strong scalability.</details> | |
| **[Multi-Perspective Triad Interaction Graph Neural Network for Cognitive Distortion Detection](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06785v1)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Cognitive distortion detection is a key task in computational mental health, yet existing approaches often overlook the psychological structure of distorted thoughts. We propose MTI-GNN (Multi-Perspective Triad Interaction Graph Neural Network), which models Beck's cognitive triad---negative views of the self, world, and future---as complementary perspectives for classification. An LLM decomposes each utterance into the three perspectives, from which perspective-specific similarity graphs are constructed and encoded by a Multi-Perspective GNN. A Triad Interaction module models cross-perspective dependencies through sequential source-conditioned updates and feature-wise gating, while Prototype-Guided Perspective Fusion performs label-conditioned aggregation. Label-expanded supervision incorporates all available distortion annotations during training. We evaluate MTI-GNN on 9,764 samples from four Korean, English, and Chinese datasets spanning ten distortion categories. MTI-GNN significantly outperforms all supervised variants and exceeds eight prompted generative models under zero-shot and few-shot settings. Leave-one-perspective-out ablations show that all three perspectives contribute significantly, while human expert evaluation provides preliminary evidence of their alignment with the intended cognitive dimensions.</details> | |
| **[BDD2Seq: Enabling Scalable Reversible-Circuit Synthesis via Graph-to-Sequence Learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.08315v2)** | 2026-08-07 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) are instrumental in many electronic design automation (EDA) tasks thanks to their compact representation of Boolean functions. In BDD-based reversible-circuit synthesis, which is critical for quantum computing, the chosen variable ordering governs the number of BDD nodes and thus the key metrics of resource consumption, such as Quantum Cost. Because finding an optimal variable ordering for BDDs is an NP-complete problem, existing heuristics often degrade as circuit complexity grows. We introduce BDD2Seq, a graph-to-sequence framework that couples a Graph Neural Network encoder with a Pointer-Network decoder and Diverse Beam Search to predict high-quality orderings. By treating the circuit netlist as a graph, BDD2Seq learns structural dependencies that conventional heuristics overlooked, yielding smaller BDDs and faster synthesis. Extensive experiments on three public benchmarks show that BDD2Seq achieves around 1.4 times lower Quantum Cost and 3.7 times faster synthesis than modern heuristic algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to tackle the variable-ordering problem in BDD-based reversible-circuit synthesis with a graph-based generative model and diversity-promoting decoding.</details> | |
| **[Closed-Loop Decision-Focused Learning for User-Aware Cloud Orchestration under Uncertainty](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05735v1)** | 2026-08-06 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Time-varying cloud workloads often cause resource under-utilization during off-peak periods and resource contention during peak periods. Existing prediction-then-optimization (PTO) frameworks suffer from two-stage decoupling, hindering the balance among violation rate, user satisfaction, and resource utilization. We formulate heterogeneous job scheduling as a multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem (MOCOP) under uncertain constraints and propose a closed-loop decision-focused learning (CL-DFL) framework for cloud orchestration. CL-DFL integrates a Multivariate Time-series Graph Neural Network (MTGNN)-based spatio-temporal predictor with a zeroth-order decision-focused learning (DFL) mechanism based on the tree-structured Parzen estimator (TPE). This integration establishes an end-to-end (E2E) feedback pathway between resource perception and scheduling decisions. Furthermore, we develop the GNeuro-PLS strategy by incorporating group relative policy optimization (GRPO) into cooperative local search to improve robustness under heterogeneous workloads. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that CL-DFL achieves superior trade-offs among violation rate, user satisfaction, and resource utilization. It effectively controls overload risks under regular workloads and maintains resilience under highly saturated scenarios compared with state-of-the-art baselines.</details> | |
| **[Listen to the Unexpected: Self-Supervised Surprise Detection for Efficient Viewport Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.02629v2)** | 2026-08-06 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Adaptive streaming of 360-degree video relies on viewport prediction to allocate bandwidth efficiently. Current approaches predominantly use visual saliency or historical gaze patterns, neglecting the role of spatial audio in guiding user attention. This paper presents a self-learning framework for detecting "surprising" auditory events -- moments that deviate from learned temporal expectations -- and demonstrates their utility for viewport prediction. The proposed architecture combines $SE(3)$-equivariant graph neural networks with recurrent temporal modeling, trained via a dual self-supervised objective. A key feature is the natural modeling of temporal attention decay: surprise is high at event onset but diminishes as the listener adapts. Experiments on the AVTrack360 dataset show that integrating audio surprise with visual cues reduces bitrate waste by up to 18% compared to visual-only methods.</details> | <details><summary>Durin...</summary>During follow-up checks, the authors found an inconsistency in the evaluation pipeline. We are withdrawing this version to re-run the experiments and verify the results before issuing an updated analysis</details> |
| **[Tropical Algebraic Geometry for Neuronal Representations: An Arakelov-Green Measure Based Descriptor for Graph Learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04460v1)** | 2026-08-05 | <details><summary>Show</summary>The quantitative analysis of 3D neuronal morphologies requires capturing both graph topology and spatial geometry. Current message-passing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are bounded by the 1-Weisfeiler-Lehman (1-WL) test, limiting their ability to capture cycles induced by spatial proximities. To address this, we propose a training-free geometric prior based on tropical algebraic geometry. We apply the recently established tropical Abel-Jacobi transform and polarization distances to machine learning on tree-structured data. We introduce a structural transformation pipeline, comprising cycle space augmentation and quotient space construction, to convert spatial trees into cyclic metric graphs suitable for embedding into the Tropical Jacobian. Computing exact tropical polarization distances requires solving the NP-Hard Closest Vector Problem (CVP) on integer lattices. Instead of relying on explicit approximations with quantization errors (e.g., Babai's rounding), we adopt a continuous relaxation on the universal cover of the Albanese torus. We show that the discrete Arakelov-Green measure, computed in closed form via the graph Laplacian's generalized inverse, decomposes exactly into the intrinsic path metric minus the unquantized polarization distance on this cover, avoiding integer lattice searches. This metric yields two descriptors: eigenvectors provide node-level structural coordinates, and the permutation-invariant eigenvalue spectrum provides a graph-level signature. On the BREC benchmark, the eigenvector formulation demonstrates expressivity beyond the 1-WL limit. On 3D morphology datasets (ACT-4, JML-4, BIL-6), the spectrum seamlessly integrates into standard architectures (VAEs, GNNs, Tree-LSTMs) without additional trainable parameters, outperforming explicit lattice approximations and improving classification accuracy over existing spatial models.</details> | |
| **[Taming Treewidth DP with Modulators: A General Booster for Graph Heuristics](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04446v1)** | 2026-08-05 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Treewidth is a fundamental graph invariant that quantifies how tree-like a given graph is. It is extensively used with dynamic programming to design fixed-parameter tractable algorithms for many NP-hard graph combinatorial optimization problems. However, despite broad theoretical applicability, treewidth dynamic programming (TDP) does not scale in practice beyond graphs with very small treewidth. Rather than applying TDP as a standalone technique, in this paper, we demonstrate that TDP can serve as a broadly applicable enhancer for a wide range of graph combinatorial optimization algorithms. Our framework leverages the concept of treewidth modulators, which refer to vertex sets whose removal significantly reduces the treewidth. We further propose an empirically efficient procedure for generating such treewidth modulators. To enhance an algorithm $\textit{A}$, we use $\textit{A}$ to heuristically make decisions on the modulators vertices, after which the remaining decisions outside the treewidth modulators become scalable for TDP. To demonstrate the general applicability of our proposed framework. We experimented with three classic graph combinatorial optimization models: Maximum Independent Set, Minimum Vertex Cover, and Max Cut. We apply TDP to enhance algorithms across diverse paradigms, including evolutionary search, greedy heuristics, and graph-neural-network-based heuristics. For all combinations of optimization models and base algorithms, TDP significantly improves performance over the original methods. In many settings, TDP-enhanced greedy heuristics are competitive with, and sometimes clearly outperform, state-of-the-art commercial solvers.</details> | <details><summary>Accep...</summary>Accepted for publication in the Proceedings of IJCAI 2026</details> |
| **[Galaxy Phase-Space and Field-Level Cosmology: The Strength of Semi-Analytic Models](https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.10222v2)** | 2026-08-05 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Semi-analytic models are a widely used approach to simulate galaxy properties within a cosmological framework, relying on simplified yet physically motivated prescriptions. They have also proven to be an efficient alternative for generating accurate galaxy catalogs, offering a faster and less computationally expensive option compared to full hydrodynamical simulations. In this paper, we demonstrate that using only galaxy $3$D positions and radial velocities, we can train a graph neural network coupled to a moment neural network to obtain a robust machine learning based model capable of estimating the matter density parameters, $Ω_{\rm m}$, with a precision of approximately 10%. The network is trained on ($25 h^{-1}$Mpc)$^3$ volumes of galaxy catalogs from L-Galaxies and can successfully extrapolate its predictions to other semi-analytic models (GAEA, SC-SAM, and Shark) and, more remarkably, to hydrodynamical simulations (Astrid, SIMBA, IllustrisTNG, and SWIFT-EAGLE). Our results show that the network is robust to variations in astrophysical and subgrid physics, cosmological and astrophysical parameters, and the different halo-profile treatments used across simulations. This suggests that the physical relationships encoded in the phase-space of semi-analytic models are largely independent of their specific physical prescriptions, reinforcing their potential as tools for the generation of realistic mock catalogs for cosmological parameter inference.</details> | 24 pages, 6 figures |
| **[Geometry-Informed Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Pre-trained Molecular GNNs for Blood-Brain Barrier Permeability Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04257v1)** | 2026-08-04 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Blood-brain barrier permeability (BBBP) prediction is a critical screening task in central nervous system drug discovery, where candidate molecules must be assessed for whether they can cross, or should be prevented from crossing, the blood-brain barrier. However, this task remains challenging because of limited, class-imbalanced datasets and sensitivity to molecular structure. Recent advances in deep learning have established graph neural networks (GNNs) as a powerful approach for molecular representation learning, while pre-trained molecular GNNs provide transferable knowledge for downstream tasks. However, full fine-tuning is often parameter-inefficient and prone to overfitting, whereas existing parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods mainly adapt node features or the two-dimensional covalent graph, limiting their ability to capture three-dimensional geometry and second-order interactions. To address these limitations, we propose BBBP-GeoPEFT, a geometry-informed PEFT framework for pre-trained molecular GNNs. BBBP-GeoPEFT constructs distance-based graphs at multiple cutoffs and their corresponding line graphs from molecular conformers to capture spatial atom and second-order edge interactions. Lightweight auxiliary geometric graph encoders generate cutoff-specific representations, which are incorporated into each pre-trained layer through node-wise cutoff attention and gated residual connections. This design preserves pre-trained knowledge while incorporating permeability-relevant geometric information with a small trainable-parameter budget. Experiments on a curated BBBP dataset show that BBBP-GeoPEFT achieves competitive performance compared with full fine-tuning and representative PEFT baselines. Under both random and scaffold splitting, BBBP-GeoPEFT achieves competitive or improved ROC-AUC and accuracy in most experiments while updating only 10.1% of the model parameters.</details> | |
| **[Topology-Aware Reasoning over Incomplete Knowledge Graph with Graph-Based Soft Prompting](https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.12503v2)** | 2026-08-04 | <details><summary>Show</summary>Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities across various tasks but remain prone to hallucinations in knowledge-intensive scenarios. Knowledge Base Question Answering (KBQA) mitigates this by grounding generation in Knowledge Graphs (KGs). However, most multi-hop KBQA methods rely on explicit edge traversal, making them fragile to KG incompleteness. In this paper, we proposed a novel graph-based soft prompting framework that shifts the reasoning paradigm from node-level path traversal to subgraph-level reasoning. Specifically, we employ a Graph Neural Network (GNN) to encode extracted structural subgraphs into soft prompts, enabling LLM to reason over richer structural context and identify relevant entities beyond immediate graph neighbors, thereby reducing sensitivity to missing edges. Furthermore, we introduce a two-stage paradigm that reduces computational cost while preserving good performance: a lightweight LLM first leverages the soft prompts to identify question-relevant entities and relations, followed by a more powerful LLM for evidence-aware answer generation. Experiments on four multi-hop KBQA benchmarks show that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on three of them, demonstrating its effectiveness. Code is available at the repository: https://github.com/Wangshuaiia/GraSP.</details> | 17 pages, 2 figures |

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