mvp-predict

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🏀 predicting the NBA mvp (3/3 so far)

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![Alt text](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sidharthrajaram/mvp-predict/master/mvppredict.png)

# 2019 - 2020 Predictions
### UPDATE: YES, the official 2020 NBA MVP is Giannis Antetokounmpo.

#### Predictions made prior to the start of the season (as of June 27, 2019)

| Player Name        | Rank       | 
|:-------------:|:-------------:| 
| `Giannis Antetokounmpo` | 1.393 |
| `Rudy Gobert` | 1.331 | 
| `James Harden` | 1.172 | 
| `Nikola Jokic` | 0.881 | 
| `Anthony Davis` | 0.828 | 
| `Karl-Anthony Towns` | 0.629 | 
| `Kevin Durant` | 0.339 |

## Notes

None yet.

# 2018 - 2019 Predictions

### UPDATE: YES, the official 2019 NBA MVP is Giannis Antetokounmpo.

#### Predictions made prior to the start of the season

| Player Name        | Rank       | 
|:-------------:|:-------------:| 
| `Giannis Antetokounmpo` | 0.899(1) |
| `LeBron James` | 0.871(2) | 
| `James Harden` | 0.835(3) | 
| `Anthony Davis` | 0.830(4) | 
| `Karl Anthony Towns` | 0.73(5) | 
| `Kawhi Leonard` | 0.55(6) | 
| `Nikola Jokic` | 0.33(7) |

## Notes

##### The methodology used for 2019 was different than the method used for 2018. The 2018 MVP was predicted using a progressive method that updated every week. The 2019 MVP was predicted entirely before the season began (I'll be using this method moving forward).

##### Upon running the 2019 model on the 2018 field, these were the results:
| `James Harden` | `Anthony Davis` | `LeBron James` | `Karl Anthony Towns (?)` |
|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| 1.559(1) | 1.036(2) | 0.799(3) | 0.608(4) |

*data/mvpForecast.csv* contains forecasted advanced stats for ESPN's top 20 NBA players of the 2018-2019 season.

*forecast.py* is responsible for generating the aforementioned future stats.

*predict.py* is responsible for ranking the MVP candidates based on the model.

*mvp_statline.py* is an independent script that predicts the per-game and advanced stats of this season's MVP.

#### mvp_statline's predictions for this season's MVP

| `ppg` |  `rpg` |  `apg` | `per` | `vorp` | `+/-` | `ts%` |
|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| 28.8 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 29.0 | 8.67 | 10.2 | 0.61 |

# 2017 - 2018 Predictions
Final frontrunner: James Harden

| `ppg` | `per` | `vorp` | `+/-` | `ts%` |
|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| 30.4 | 29.8 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 0.619 |

### Predictions as of April 12, 2018

| `James Harden` | `LeBron James` | `Anthony Davis` | `Russell Westbrook` |
|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| 29%(1) | 21%(2) | 14%(3) | 7%(4) |

### In October of 2017, mvp-predict generated this as the projected MVP statline:

| `ppg` | `per` | `vorp` | `+/-` | `ts%` |
|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| 27.63 | 29.01 | 8.79 | 10.24 | 0.606 |

mvp-predict

mvp-predict Latest Version Download

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