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ChainStrike-Polymarket-BTC-Latency-Momentum-Sniper-5m-15m-1h

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ChainStrike — Polymarket BTC Latency & Momentum Sniper (5m / 15m / 1h)

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# ChainStrike — Polymarket BTC Latency & Momentum Sniper (5m / 15m / 1h)

[![TypeScript](https://img.shields.io/badge/TypeScript-5.7-blue?logo=typescript&logoColor=white)](https://www.typescriptlang.org/)
[![Node.js](https://img.shields.io/badge/Node.js-20+-green?logo=node.js&logoColor=white)](https://nodejs.org/)
[![License: MIT](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-yellow.svg)](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/EPS2G2016544/ChainStrike-Polymarket-BTC-Latency-Momentum-Sniper-5m-15m-1h/main/LICENSE)
[![Paper Trading](https://img.shields.io/badge/Paper%20Trading-Ready-brightgreen)](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/EPS2G2016544/ChainStrike-Polymarket-BTC-Latency-Momentum-Sniper-5m-15m-1h/main/)

> Detect fast BTC moves on CEX + Chainlink **before** Polymarket odds fully reprice. Enter the correct Up/Down side with low latency, manage risk tightly, and avoid toxic end-of-window competition.

---

## From the Developer

I've been running ChainStrike on Polymarket BTC Up/Down markets and have achieved **decent, repeatable results** — but I'm honest: there's still significant upside I'm chasing. This repo is my attempt to build in public and connect with others who care about latency, prediction markets, and systematic edge.

**I want to talk to you.** Whether you're tuning velocity thresholds, wiring live CLOB execution, improving Chainlink divergence modeling, or experimenting with multi-timeframe alignment — open an issue, start a discussion, or reach out. The best improvements to this bot will come from people actually running it and sharing what they see in the data.

If you've built Polymarket bots before, if you're researching fair-odds lag, or if you're just getting started with prediction market automation — let's compare notes.

---

## Performance Dashboard

Real-time analytics from paper and live sessions. Every signal, skip reason, fill, and PnL event is logged for full explainability.

### Equity & Live PnL

![ChainStrike PnL Dashboard](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/EPS2G2016544/ChainStrike-Polymarket-BTC-Latency-Momentum-Sniper-5m-15m-1h/main/docs/assets/dashboard-pnl.png)

*Live equity curve, win rate, BTC velocity gauge, and Polymarket Up/Down odds lag monitor.*

### Signal Analysis

![ChainStrike Signal Analysis](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/EPS2G2016544/ChainStrike-Polymarket-BTC-Latency-Momentum-Sniper-5m-15m-1h/main/docs/assets/dashboard-signals.png)

*Per-trade velocity, edge-after-fees, momentum burst scores, and latency lag scatter analysis.*

### Performance Metrics

![ChainStrike Performance Analysis](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/EPS2G2016544/ChainStrike-Polymarket-BTC-Latency-Momentum-Sniper-5m-15m-1h/main/docs/assets/dashboard-analysis.png)

*Sharpe, drawdown, edge distribution, profitability heatmap by timeframe, and risk circuit breaker status.*

---

## Why ChainStrike?

Polymarket BTC 5-minute Up/Down markets reprice on human reaction time. When Binance moves hard and Chainlink follows, the CLOB often **lags** by hundreds of milliseconds to several seconds. ChainStrike exploits that window:

| Layer | Source | Role |
|-------|--------|------|
| **Velocity** | Binance BTCUSDT trades | Primary momentum signal (1s / 3s / 5s / 10s) |
| **Settlement truth** | Chainlink Data Streams | Divergence guard — never assume CEX = settlement |
| **Execution** | Polymarket CLOB | Order book depth, spread, implied probability lag |
| **Discovery** | Gamma API | Auto-find `btc-updown-5m-*` / `15m` / `1h` windows |

Every entry requires **all gates** to pass: velocity threshold, direction agreement, minimum edge after fees, sufficient book depth, regime not CHOP, and outside the end-of-window blackout.

---

## Quick Start

### Prerequisites

- **Node.js 20+**
- Network access to Binance WebSocket, Polymarket Gamma/CLOB APIs

### Install

```bash
git clone https://github.com/YOUR_USERNAME/chainstrike.git
cd chainstrike
npm install
cp .env.example .env
```

### Health Check

```bash
npm run doctor
```

Validates Node version, config, Binance WS, Gamma API, CLOB API, and live-key readiness.

### Run Paper Bot (BTC 5m)

```bash
npm run paper:5m
```

Connects to public market data — **no wallet required**. Identical decision logic to live mode; fills are simulated against the real order book.

```bash
# Other profiles
npm run paper:15m
npm run paper:1h
```

### Run Tests

```bash
npm test
```

---

## Architecture

```
chainstrike/
├── config/
│   └── profiles.yaml          # Per-timeframe thresholds, sizing, status
├── docs/assets/               # Dashboard screenshots
├── src/
│   ├── cli/
│   │   ├── doctor.ts          # One-command healthcheck
│   │   ├── paper-bot.ts       # Paper trading entrypoint
│   │   └── status.ts          # CLI status dashboard
│   ├── config/                # ENV + YAML loader (Zod validated)
│   ├── engine/
│   │   └── bot.ts             # Main orchestrator
│   ├── feeds/
│   │   ├── binance.ts         # BTCUSDT trade stream + ring buffer
│   │   ├── chainlink.ts       # Settlement oracle (divergence guard)
│   │   └── polymarket-clob.ts # CLOB REST + WebSocket order book
│   ├── strategy/
│   │   ├── momentum.ts        # Velocity, burst score, regime detection
│   │   └── latency-lag.ts     # Fair odds lag, multi-TF filter
│   ├── execution/
│   │   └── orders.ts          # FOK/FAK adapter, idempotent orders
│   ├── risk/
│   │   └── limits.ts          # Circuit breakers, cooldowns, spend caps
│   ├── markets/
│   │   └── discovery.ts       # Gamma slug discovery, window scheduler
│   ├── portfolio/
│   │   └── positions.ts       # Positions, PnL, redemption hooks
│   ├── sim/
│   │   └── paper-exchange.ts  # Paper fill simulator
│   ├── notify/
│   │   └── telegram.ts        # Optional Telegram alerts + kill switch
│   └── utils/                 # Logger, math, graceful shutdown
└── tests/                     # Signal math, risk gates, window switching
```

### Signal Pipeline

```mermaid
flowchart LR
    A[Binance WS] --> C[Momentum Engine]
    B[Chainlink] --> C
    D[Polymarket CLOB] --> E[Latency Lag Engine]
    C --> E
    E --> F{Risk Gates}
    F -->|pass| G[Execution]
    F -->|fail| H[Structured Skip Log]
    G --> I[Paper / Live Fill]
```

### Multi-Timeframe Hierarchy (optional)

When `USE_MULTI_TF_FILTER=true`:

- **1h** → bias filter (direction must align)
- **15m** → confirmation
- **5m** → execution (size up 1.5× when all align)

---

## Configuration

Copy `.env.example` → `.env`. All strategy parameters are tunable without code changes.

| Variable | Default | Description |
|----------|---------|-------------|
| `BTC_5M_STATUS` | `paper` | `live` \| `paper` \| `monitor` \| `disabled` |
| `BTC_15M_STATUS` | `monitor` | 15m profile status |
| `BTC_1H_STATUS` | `monitor` | 1h bias filter status |
| `VELOCITY_THRESHOLD_BPS` | `8` | Minimum 3s velocity to trigger |
| `MIN_EDGE_AFTER_FEES` | `0.015` | 1.5% min edge after fees + slippage |
| `ENTRY_BLACKOUT_BEFORE_CLOSE_MS` | `90000` | No new entries in final 90s |
| `MAX_USD_PER_TRADE` | `25` | Fixed size per trade |
| `MAX_LOSS_PER_HOUR` | via `MAX_USD_PER_HOUR` | Hourly spend cap |
| `USE_MULTI_TF_FILTER` | `false` | Enable 1h/15m/5m alignment |

Per-profile overrides live in `config/profiles.yaml`.

---

## Entry Logic (Explainability First)

Every tick evaluates and logs:

1. **Velocity** — short-horizon return across 1s/3s/5s/10s windows
2. **Momentum burst** — price move × trade intensity
3. **Regime** — TREND / CHOP / UNKNOWN
4. **Fair probability** — model vs CLOB ask → implied lag
5. **Edge after fees** — taker fee + estimated slippage deducted
6. **Book depth** — minimum USD at target price
7. **Blackout** — hard stop N seconds before resolution
8. **Chainlink divergence** — CEX vs oracle disagreement guard

Example log when a trade fires:

```
TRADE FIRED  direction=UP  edge=2.8%  velocityBps=12.4
  PASS:velocity_direction  PASS:regime_not_chop  PASS:not_in_blackout
  PASS:min_edge  PASS:orderbook_depth  fair=61.2% ask=54.0%
```

Example skip:

```
Signal skipped  skipReason=blackout_window  velocityBps=15.1  ttc=45s
```

---

## Live Trading Setup

Paper mode uses the **exact same** decision path as live. To go live:

1. Set `BTC_5M_STATUS=live` in `.env`
2. Add `POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY` and `POLYMARKET_FUNDER_ADDRESS`
3. Fund your Polygon wallet with USDC
4. Run `npm run doctor` — confirm live keys check passes
5. Start with minimum `MAX_USD_PER_TRADE` and scale after review

Live execution integrates `@polymarket/clob-client` with EIP-712 signing on Polygon. The adapter in `src/execution/orders.ts` is the integration point — PRs welcome from anyone who has production fill data to share.

### Kill Switch

Create a file named `.killswitch` in the project root (or set `KILL_SWITCH_FILE`). All entries halt immediately. Optional Telegram notifications via `TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN` + `TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID`.

---

## Engineering Highlights

Built for production from day one:

- **Reconnect with exponential backoff** on all WebSocket feeds
- **Heartbeat logging** every 30s with BTC price, market slug, PnL
- **Idempotent order keys** — no duplicate entries per window/direction
- **Graceful shutdown** — SIGINT/SIGTERM cancels open orders, drains feeds
- **Zod-validated config** — fail fast on bad ENV
- **Structured Pino logs** — JSON or pretty mode
- **Window scheduler** — auto-discovers next `btc-updown-5m-*` market before open
- **Risk circuit breakers** — consecutive losses, drawdown, hourly/daily caps

---

## Roadmap

- [x] MVP — BTC 5m paper mode with Binance velocity + CLOB book
- [x] Risk gates, detailed skip logging, doctor healthcheck
- [x] Multi-profile config (5m / 15m / 1h)
- [ ] Chainlink Data Streams WebSocket (production oracle feed)
- [ ] Live CLOB FOK execution via `@polymarket/clob-client`
- [ ] Auto-redeem winning positions post-resolution
- [ ] Coinbase / Bybit confirmation feeds
- [ ] Web dashboard (React) replacing CLI status view

---

## Contributing — Especially Live Trading

This project is **designed for real trading**, not just backtests on stale CSVs. The highest-value contributions:

1. **Live execution hardening** — fill rates, partial fills, chase logic, cancel-on-close
2. **Chainlink integration** — proper Data Streams wiring vs CEX proxy in paper mode
3. **Edge calibration** — fee/slippage models tuned on actual Polymarket fills
4. **Multi-TF filter tuning** — 1h bias + 15m confirmation parameters from live sessions
5. **Redemption automation** — post-resolution USDC reclaim on Polygon

If you've run real size on Polymarket BTC markets and have logs to share (even anonymized), that's gold — open a Discussion or PR. I'm specifically looking for collaborators who want to push profitability beyond what I've achieved solo.

```bash
# Development workflow
npm install
npm test
npm run lint
npm run doctor
npm run paper:5m
```

---

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---

## License

MIT — see [LICENSE](LICENSE).

---

Built for traders who read the order book, not the headline. 
 Star the repo · Open an issue · Let's make this profitable together.

ChainStrike-Polymarket-BTC-Latency-Momentum-Sniper-5m-15m-1h

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