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stat_rethinking_2025

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Statistical Rethinking (2025 Edition)
===============

Instructor: Richard McElreath

Lectures: Uploaded and pre-recorded, two per week

Discussion: Online (Zoom), Fridays 11am-12pm Central European (Berlin) Time

# Purpose

This course teaches data analysis, but it focuses on scientific models. The unfortunate truth about data is that nothing much can be done with it, until we say what caused it. We will prioritize conceptual, causal models and precise questions about those models. We will use Bayesian data analysis to connect scientific models to evidence. And we will learn powerful computational tools for coping with high-dimension, imperfect data of the kind that biologists and social scientists face.

# Format

Online, flipped instruction. I have pre-recorded the lectures for each week. We'll meet online once a week for an hour to discuss the material.

We'll use the 2nd edition of my book, <[Statistical Rethinking](https://xcelab.net/rm/statistical-rethinking/)>, and possibly some draft chapters for the 3rd edition. I'll provide a PDF of the book to enrolled students.

Registration: Only Leipzig locals this year. I want a smaller group of students this time, so I can track individual progress better.

# Calendar & Topical Outline

There are 10 weeks of instruction. Links to lecture recordings will appear in this table. Weekly problem sets are assigned on Fridays and due the next Friday, when we discuss the solutions in the weekly online meeting.

Full lecture playlist: <[Statistical Rethinking 2023 Playlist](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdnMWdICdRs&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus)>

Note about slides: In some browsers, the slides don't show correctly. If points are missing from plots, download the slides PDF instead of viewing in browser.

| Week ## | Meeting date | Reading | Lectures |
| ------- | -------------- | ------------- | ---------------------- |
| Week 01 | 10 January | Chapters 1, 2 and 3 | [1] <[Science Before Statistics](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdnMWdICdRs&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=1)> <[Slides](https://speakerdeck.com/rmcelreath/statistical-rethinking-2023-lecture-01)> [2] <[Garden of Forking Data](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1vcdhPBlXA&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=2)> <[Slides](https://speakerdeck.com/rmcelreath/statistical-rethinking-2023-lecture-02)>
| Week 02 | 17 January | Chapter 4 | [3] <[Geocentric Models](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNOu-SEacNU&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=3)> <[Slides](https://speakerdeck.com/rmcelreath/statistical-rethinking-2023-lecture-03)> [4] <[Categories and Curves](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0N4b7K_iYQ&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=4)> <[Slides](https://speakerdeck.com/rmcelreath/statistical-rethinking-2023-lecture-04)>
| Week 03 | 24 January | Chapters 5 and 6 | [5] <[Elemental Confounds](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBEA7PKDmiY&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=5)> <[Slides](https://speakerdeck.com/rmcelreath/statistical-rethinking-2023-lecture-05)> [6] <[Good and Bad Controls](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uanZZLlzKHw&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=6)> <[Slides](https://speakerdeck.com/rmcelreath/statistical-rethinking-2023-lecture-06)>
| Week 04 | 31 January | Chapters 7,8,9 | [7] <[Overfitting](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VgYIsANQck&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=7)> <[Slides](https://speakerdeck.com/rmcelreath/statistical-rethinking-2023-lecture-07)> [8] <[MCMC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZk2FqX2XnY&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=8)> <[Slides](https://speakerdeck.com/rmcelreath/statistical-rethinking-2023-lecture-08)>
| Week 05 | 07 February | Chapters 10 and 11 | [9] <[Modeling Events](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi6N3GLUJmw&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=9)> <[Slides](https://speakerdeck.com/rmcelreath/statistical-rethinking-2023-lecture-09)> [10] <[Counts and Confounds](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jokxu18egu0&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=10)> <[Slides](https://speakerdeck.com/rmcelreath/statistical-rethinking-2023-lecture-10)>
| Week 06 | 14 February | Chapters 11 and 12 | [11] <[Ordered Categories](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVQaIkom5D0&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=11)> <[Slides](https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023/raw/main/slides/Lecture_11-ord_logit.pdf)> [12] <[Multilevel Models](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwVqiiXYeC4&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=12)> <[Slides](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023/main/slides/Lecture_12-GLMM1.pdf)>
| Week 07 | 21 February | Chapter 13 | [13] <[Multilevel Adventures](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgqMkZeslxA&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=13)> <[Slides](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023/main/slides/Lecture_13-GLMM2.pdf)> [14] <[Correlated Features](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Es44-Bp1aKo&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=14)> <[Slides](https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023/raw/main/slides/Lecture_14-GLMM3.pdf)>
| Week 08 | 28 February | Chapter 14 | [15] <[Social Networks](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnYhJzYAQ60&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=15)> <[Slides](https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023/raw/main/slides/Lecture_15-social_networks.pdf)> [16] <[Gaussian Processes](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2ZLt4iOrXU&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=16)> <[Slides](https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023/raw/main/slides/Lecture_16-gaussian_processes.pdf)>
| Week 09 | 07 March | Chapter 15 | [17] <[Measurement](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mt9WKbQJrI4&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=17)> <[Slides](https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023/raw/main/slides/Lecture_17-measurement.pdf)> [18] <[Missing Data](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oeq6GChHOzc&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=18)> <[Slides](https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023/raw/main/slides/Lecture_18-missing_data.pdf)>
| Week 10 | 14 March | Chapters 16 and 17 | [19] <[Generalized Linear Madness](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zffwg0xDOgE&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=19)> <[Slides](https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023/raw/main/slides/Lecture_19-GenLinearMadness.pdf)> [20] <[Horoscopes](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwF-st2NGTU&list=PLDcUM9US4XdPz-KxHM4XHt7uUVGWWVSus&index=20&pp=sAQB)> <[Slides](https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023/raw/main/slides/Lecture_20-horoscopes.pdf)>

# Coding

This course involves a lot of scripting. Students can engage with the material using either the original R code examples or one of several conversions to other computing environments. The conversions are not always exact, but they are rather complete. See list and links at (https://xcelab.net/rm/)

For those who want to use the original R code examples in the print book, you need to install the `rethinking` R package. The code is all on github <https://github.com/rmcelreath/rethinking/> and there are additional details about the package there, including information about using the more-up-to-date `cmdstanr` instead of `rstan` as the underlying MCMC engine.

# Homework and solutions

I will also post problem sets and solutions. Check the folders at the top of the repository.

stat_rethinking_2025

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